So here’s the plan. I’m going to write a summary of how each owner’s season has been going so far, highlighting some good and bad. Should be a little different than draft evals since there’s actual data to evaluate. Once I’m done with that, and this should be as all but the closest playoff spots are getting tied up, I’ll write a blurb on each world.
2. jethroeg - Steph Curry, Gary Payton, Willis Reed, Grant Hill (boo), Draymond Green, Dan Roundfield, Rajon Rondo (boooo), Josh Smith (nice! but needed shooting), Raja Bell, Brook Lopez, Maurice Lucas, George Gervin
Overall: 119-201 (37.2%). PyWins: 116.3
W1: 28-36, W2: 22-42, W3: 23-41, W4: 24-40, W5: 22-42
-And we begin with jethro. Didn’t like this draft as much as some of jethro’s recent drafts. Definitely not strong enough on the boards to be taking BroLo late, and overall really short of good shooters other than Steph – this reflected in a league-bottom 2pt%. I like both Payton and Reed but they’re drafted too high and not the right fit for Steph.
-It doesn’t look like Steph has been letting you down, as he’s hitting near his IRL numbers on three teams, underperforming on one, and overperforming in W4. You’re also getting above average assists, opponent 3pt%, and leading the dang league in steals, so the issue definitively has not been the guards, which isn’t a surprise given your early draft focus.
-The World 1 has some strengths, and an outside shot at making the playoffs. It’s loaded with talent – 15-16 Curry, 69-70 Reed, 15-16 Draymond, 95-96 Glove – but is so bad at rebounding with a 47.5 – 54.2 per game deficit that the team is barely keeping its head above water at 28-36. Gotta up those numbers to be competitive in Savage.
-I just think this roster is missing some big man studs – which would address 2pt%, rebounds, and blocks. Willis Reed is great in spots but you’re asking too much of him here. Give him some help, and there’s a potentially winning formula here. Unfortunately, too late for this go-around.
8. 20ks - Anthony Davis, Kevin McHale, Manu Ginobili, Daniel Gafford (early, to me), Chris Andersen, Jerry West (don’t like next to Manu), Chet Holmgren (not enough rebounds to absorb this), Mikal Bridges, Kevin Johnson, Walt Bellamy, Mark Eaton, Charlie Ward
Overall: 131-189 (40.9%). PyWins: 146.1
W1: 19-45, W2: 27-37, W3: 26-38, W4: 24-41, W5: 36-28
-So. 20ks drafted a lot of good players, but do these pieces work together? Reader, they do not.
-There’s a simple question, which is what’s wrong with this roster – it’s rebounding. But there’s a more complicated question, too. 20ks is second in the reverse standings, 12 wins above Jethro – but 29.8 wins ahead by PyWins. That’s only 4.6 fewer PyWins than Rob at the moment, for reference. So what’s going wrong? Also what is going right but getting drowned out?
-As I mentioned, this squad is losing horrendously on the boards, and also by a sizeable margin in the 3pt game. Defensive rebounding is a particular issue, as opponents are grabbing 1.6 more offensive rebounds against 20ks than the second worst team. I wonder if this weakness, plus mediocre perimeter defense, help explain the huge PyWins gap – opponents turning on the 3pt mode in close games are shooting fish in a barrel. And Manu and Jerry West aren’t instilling that same fear on the other end.
-This roster does have strengths. It’s winning in the 2pt category, and in FTs, and in TOs and in blocks. Anthony Davis is doing pretty well. 20ks one playoff team, in W5, still can’t rebound but makes up for it by winning everywhere else. Jerry West is having quite a nice season off the bench, too. That team is stacked.
10. midge - Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Jrue Holiday, Walt Frazier, Jerry Lucas, Al Horford, Evan Mobley, Victor Oladipo, Larry Nance Jr., Kyle Korver, Terry Porter, Jack Sikma, Bailey Howel
Overall: 133-187 (41.6%). PyWins: 142.7
W1: 25-39, W2: 25-39, W3: 26-38, W4: 31-33, W5: 26-38
-I was surprised to see Midge this low. I remember telling him that it thought it had been high for Jrue and Walt but that I liked a lot of his draft. But like the two teams above, this roster was just totally tanked by an inability to rebound. A positive TS% differential of over a percent isn’t enough to save this team from possession oblivion. Doesn’t help that you’re hardly getting any blocks or steals, either.
-After having opened with Kareem, I’d have liked to have gone with a second big man in the next two picks, I think that start really put you behind the ball. I also just don’t rate Walt this highly in a vacuum either – he forces you into suboptimal decisions later like taking Korver in the 9th.
-Oladipo has been tearing it up in W5 but it’s not enough to overcome losing the rebound and turnover battles. The World 4 team is just a game out of the playoffs, on the strength of the TS% battle, but even there rebounds (and 3pms) are a real issue.
-Might have benefitted from consolidating talent on a few teams once the rebounding issues became clear.
24. dontburnearl - Luka Doncic, Oscar Robertson, Bill Russell (at least one guy defends), Bobby Portis, Nic Claxton (early for me given his limited minutes), Bradley Beal, Enes Kanter, Anthony Mason, Paul Reed (same as Claxton), Marquese Chriss, Jalen Smith, Jalen Johnson
Overall: 136-184 (42.5%). PyWins: 144.3
W1: 27-37, W2: 25-39, W3: 26-38, W4: 18-46, W5: 40-24
-Defense, who needs it? This team has some strengths, but it pairs a middle of the road offense with one of the very worst defenses in the league. It does stand out from the teams above in that it’s actually winning in PossDiff. It’s all about the defense here.
-Luka/Oscar/Russell is cute on paper, but I just wouldn’t have gone for that first/second round pairing. Not with Embiid, Whiteside, DeAndre Jordan, Barkley, Moses, and Capela all available (they went immediately after, in this order), any of who would have been a better fit with one of the guards than sticking them both together. You added rebounding late with Kanter, but Kanter comes with a cost.
-You added some nice small minute players late in the draft but there just wasn’t enough of a core here to be successful. It looks like Luka is only shooting well in two leagues, which seems problematic.
-dbe’s W5 team is the standout, with no weaknesses across the board, but it’s better from 2pt than 3 or the line, and has at best the second top odds to make it out of the conference. Claxton has been having a great season for this squad, shooting 68.2% and averaging 7.5 blocks and 4 stocks.
13. kammeyer - Kevin Durant, Magic Johnson (bleh), Buck Williams, Pau Gasol (nice!), Donovan Mitchell, Bo Outlaw, Kermit Washington, Deandre Ayton (pretty good in the 8th), Arvydas Sabonis, Derek Harper, Isaiah Thomas, Jalen Brunson
Overall: 136-184 (42.5%). PyWins: 145.5
W1: 33-31, W2: 39-25, W3: 25-39, W4: 18-46, W5: 21-43
-I’m really not a fan of Magic in the second, and didn’t like the fit with KD either. To me, this team’s rebounding issues are even more obvious than some of the teams with worse records. I didn’t mind Kermit/Ayton in the 7/8 but think there were a lot of misses here.
-On a side note, I get why people like Buck Williams, especially in Savage, but to me he is fairly toxic and I would not draft him until much later than he usually goes. Never won a crown. And even Ron Harper’s won a crown.
-Seems like KD has been performing to expectations, but poor defense and rebounding, along with high turnovers, have limited what this roster has been able to do this season.
-Kammeyer does have one current playoff team, a 39-25 squad in W2 that’s still leading the conference despite a four game skid. That team turns it over too much and is short in the stocks department, but lacks the rebounding deficiency present in the rest of the teams.
18. tarheel1991 - Tim Duncan, Clint Capela, Sidney Moncrief, Kyle Lowry, Kristaps Porzingis (this is about where he should be going), Dejounte Murray, A.C. Green, Marcin Gortat, Jonathan Isaac (felt early), Jamario Moon, George Hill, P.J. Washington
Overall: 141-179 (44.1%). PyWins: 143.4
W1: 31-33, W2: 32-32, W3: 31-33, W4: 26-38, W5: 21-43
-I thought this was a pretty solid draft on paper. What went wrong?
-For one, this squad is getting blitzed from three, and not generating enough steals, which is predictable given the guard rotation. Along with not enough passing. Perimeter defense matters folks! One of the most common threads with these bottom eight teams is neglecting the steals and blocks stats, and I’d strongly encourage folks to give those more weight during the draft.
I don’t know if this is a consensus opinion necessarily but I’m really low on Moncrief in the third in Savage; meanwhile Lowry is good but not really a value in the fourth.
Tarheel does have one playoff team in W1, and has playoff hopefuls in W2 and W3, all of which are within a game or two off the playoff line. Those teams generally are better from 3 and the line than their non-contending counterparts.
I wonder what it’s been like to manage Duncan. I think I had him early in my Savage career, but not in a while.
19. amerk1180 - Karl Malone, Moses Malone, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Donyell Marshall (great first four), Danny Green, Victor Wembanyama, Zach LaVine, Deron Williams, Bob Pettit (good value), Amir Johnson, Roy Tarpley, Michael Cooper
Overall: 144-176 (45%). PyWins: 143.4
W1: 38-26, W2: 21-43, W3: 31-33, W4: 24-40, W5: 30-34
-I liked the draft pretty well, though it went a little off the rails starting around LaVine or Deron. This team has some real strengths, and is on a 28-22 tear. But it’s another case of neglected defense and stocks holding an owner back from being competitive across the board.
-Amerk’s teams are good from deep, but 2pt% and passing overall are a different story. Nice FT game. I had really wanted Danny Green in the round you took him, to pair with CP3, but am not sure he’s the ideal fit in this backcourt which has inconsistent defense at the 1. I’d really want to shore up PG defense to feel good about taking Green as early as he goes.
-Amerk has one playoff team, and two more teams in contention. Those three are the best rebounding of amerk’s teams as well. The playoff team is in W1 where he is leading a tight Pacific division but also only five games from 7th. And yes, that’s the Wemby team, with 23-24 SGA as well. Definitely looking like a tough out.
After Amerk, there’s a jump in tiers with most of the upcoming owners having 2-3 playoff teams, so this seems like a natural break point. More to come!