You also have players who tread water their first season or two before they finally "get it" and make big leaps their junior and senior seasons. You also have players who contine to improve for all four seasons, even if it's just tiny gains. Not all players improve the same way. Some improve fast, some slow, some early, and some late.
If you're going to play the realism card, that's fine, but at least have an open enough mind to see other possibilities.