free agents testing the market Topic

blanch13
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Quote: Originally posted by rugby1 on 8/31/2009My first year in Joey Belle and the MVP from last year, who was on my team, Victor Morales has gone the free agent route.  He is just 27 with good health and durability ratings and could put up 30 HRs and 50 SBs per season.  I have escalted my bids several times and am now wondering if this is a $100Mil (5 yrs) player? Are there other 20mil/season players out there and are they worth it?

I don't think he's worth $20MM a year. If he was a SS, or maybe a CF, you'd have to consider it 'cause his offense would be so much better than the typical SS or CF. It's not terribly hard to find a 2B who will hit close to .300/30 HR with better defense than Victor's (imho the 50 SB is flashy but not really worth a lot).

That said, what's your team "context"? If I had a team full of 1st, 2nd, 3rd-year players - low payroll, and it would stay pretty low for the duration of the contract - I'd consider it. Most teams don't have that, though. They sign a monster contract and end up with 1 guy and a bunch of AAAA players around him, lose 110 games and quit.

Another thing to consider is what else is there in the FA class? I know this one pretty well and think it's thin in hitters at the top but has a lot of usable "foot soldiers".

It'll be very interesting to see what he signs for. If he goes for 15+, I'd bet $ to dogturds it WON'T be with one of the better teams in the league (by last year's records). There are a couple of divisions where there are 2 rebuilding teams and the winner was around .500 last year. That presents an almost-overwhelming temptation for the #2 team to pay up for a true star.
8/31/2009 1:59 PM
blanch13
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Quote: Originally posted by rugby1 on 8/31/2009My first year in Joey Belle and the MVP from last year, who was on my team, Victor Morales has gone the free agent route.  He is just 27 with good health and durability ratings and could put up 30 HRs and 50 SBs per season.  I have escalted my bids several times and am now wondering if this is a $100Mil (5 yrs) player? Are there other 20mil/season players out there and are they worth it?

We have our answer - D.C. gave him the max contract. It's one of the few situations it may make sense - they've been building through the draft and IFA for years, got to 98 wins last season. Even with Morales' $30MM this year, their payroll is only 82.
8/31/2009 3:34 PM
prezuiwf
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Quote: Originally Posted By snake_p on 8/31/2009
Quote: Originally Posted By prezuiwf on 8/31/2009

Quote: Originally Posted By moustachee on 8/28/2009
my experience is no, if he says he's filing no matter what. I've beat his asking price by a LOT and had no luck..
WiS has stated that during free agency, if multiple franchises offer the same contract and one of them was the player's former franchise (before he filed for FA), that franchise will get a "small loyalty bonus." What I take this to mean is that even if a guy files for free agency, as long as you're not like a 120-loss team, you are virtually guaranteed to get your player back if you're willing to pay true market value for him.
That would be true in a world where salaries never get grossly inflated, where all owners bid on FA's sensibly.

The next world where that is the case will be the first.



True market value is whatever other people are willing to pay. If owners stupidly pay some mediocre guy a ridiculous amount of money, it seems dumb, but the market has determined that to be his value. Point being, as long as you're willing to match the market, you can retain virtually all of your departing free agents.
8/31/2009 4:17 PM
soxfan121
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Albert Johnson was a max player. Lost in the WS the first year of his deal; entering year 2. He won the MVP (undeservedly, Ariel Sierra from MNT had a better year, IMO.)

A max contract means (to me) the player has to have 4 or 5 "max" attributes, great health and decent makeup. Al's Johnson can play 145 games a season and will hit around .350 with a .440 OBP. He'll likely need to move to LF or 1b next season (I value defense and his is below average). But he's an offensive production machine - pretty much the prototype of a #3 hitter.
8/31/2009 8:20 PM
coolio4433
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9/1/2009 3:21 PM
snake_p
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Quote: Originally Posted By prezuiwf on 8/31/2009
Quote: Originally Posted By snake_p on 8/31/2009

Quote: Originally Posted By prezuiwf on 8/31/2009

Quote: Originally Posted By moustachee on 8/28/2009
my experience is no, if he says he's filing no matter what. I've beat his asking price by a LOT and had no luck..
WiS has stated that during free agency, if multiple franchises offer the same contract and one of them was the player's former franchise (before he filed for FA), that franchise will get a "small loyalty bonus." What I take this to mean is that even if a guy files for free agency, as long as you're not like a 120-loss team, you are virtually guaranteed to get your player back if you're willing to pay true market value for him.
That would be true in a world where salaries never get grossly inflated, where all owners bid on FA's sensibly.

The next world where that is the case will be the first.



True market value is whatever other people are willing to pay. If owners stupidly pay some mediocre guy a ridiculous amount of money, it seems dumb, but the market has determined that to be his value. Point being, as long as you're willing to match the market, you can retain virtually all of your departing free agents
Yes, if you want to stretch your spending to exceed even "stupid" and "ridiculous" offers, it is true you can retain virtually any player. I'll give you that. But then we're not talking about "true market value" any more, we're talking about, in your own words, "stupid" and "ridiculous." And as I said, the next world where salaries never get grossly inflated, where all owners bid on FA's sensibly, will be the first.
9/1/2009 3:46 PM
rbedwell
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Here's a different slant on it. Do any guys refuse to sign a long term deal because they were taken to arbitration TWICE? I know that will happen sometimes with three times, but what about just two? The reason I ask is because I have a young superstar pitcher with very low patience and I'd like to be able to keep him for as many seasons as possible. If I take him to arbitration twice, can I count on him signing a five year deal the next season?
9/23/2009 9:17 PM
spudpicker
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Yes, I've had guys I've low-balled in arb refuse to sign long-term on the 3rd time in arb.
9/23/2009 10:47 PM
sergei91
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Quote: Originally Posted By rbedwell on 9/23/2009Here's a different slant on it. Do any guys refuse to sign a long term deal because they were taken to arbitration TWICE? I know that will happen sometimes with three times, but what about just two? The reason I ask is because I have a young superstar pitcher with very low patience and I'd like to be able to keep him for as many seasons as possible. If I take him to arbitration twice, can I count on him signing a five year deal the next season


i think it has to be three times LOSING to the same owner. i will often offer what they are asking and it will automatically award 'the franchise's offer'. in this case, i did not beat the player because i met his demands.

i don't think if the guy is traded to your team from some other owner who beat him three times that he'll take it out on you.

but i may be wrong.
9/24/2009 8:07 AM
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