Quote: Originally Posted By dedelman on 10/19/2009
1) Agree that a 3rd round flyer would be OK if he were actually going to reach those projections.
2) No way he reaches those projections, because (a) there's too far to go on those splits (+41 VsR?) and (b) very low ratings, at least for hitters, seem to hardly improve at all despite projections, so I bet the control never gets above 14 or so.
3) I reviewed all 16 SP in OCD with VsR at least 20 greater than VsL. Every single one faced more RHB than LHB; the average was a 43/57 split. So I think you want VsR higher rather than even splits for an SP.
I agree completely that a SP will face more righties. Its just whether the lowering of one split is worse than the raising of the other one. I've had a couple SP who were 58-80 in splits, and they've performed much worse, over multiple seasons, than guys who were 68-70 or so. Maybe its just these pitchers, but I don't remember them having terrible pitches, or poor GB or velocity etc.