So trying to get a grasp on the projected rankings. Do most players reach their prospective rankings? Do some players go beyond their projected rankings or is this pretty much a cieling of absolutely the best case scenario?

No, they do not.

Some categories can be exceeded.

If you had to make a quick scale how many out of 100 would you say

A exceed

b hit

c fail to acheive

In my experience in is about

a 10%, B 50% and C 40%

Projected ratings accuracy is based on your Advanced Scouting budget. Even with 20 mill (the max) budgeted for Advanced Scouting, players will still not reach their projections that you see.

I wouldn't really trust projections with a 10 mill or less budget and I'd be pretty wary of trusting much when it's below 15 FYI.

Pay special attention to how well a player has progressed over each Spring Training to get a better idea how good they'll be.

A - 2%
B - 8%
C - 90%

Most players end up 2 - 3 rating points below projections in most categories. I find that players with greater than 90 makeup have the best chance of reaching their full projections.

is there a reliable guide somewhere in the forum here for new folks?

OK - now I'm at a loss...I signed an international prospect and as soon as I signed him and assigned him to a team all of his projected ratings dropped...

That's because his ratings depend on your Internation Scouting budget before you sign him and your Advanced Scouting budget after you signed him. Whichever of those two budgets is higher will probably give you a closer estimate as to his actual ratings.

I agree with sdhizzle about makeup. Guys with 90+ makeup seem to meet/exceed their projections more often, continue to improve after age 27, maintain their ratings longer, and improve at a faster rate. They also seem to have less severe injuries and recover faster. I love players with a high makeup.