the perfect gameplan Topic

muredskin00
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Quote: Originally Posted By oldresorter on 12/01/2009

a ? for all you guys who want settings to be more important, what happens when someone cracks the code and wins all the time, this has happenned in the past, and cs has rushed in and taken the strategy away -

I have at times rattled off a pretty long list of these, the one I will say that oldtimers would have to agree with is wearing the opponent out with pace, target vs fatigue planning, superior stamina, pressing, etc - I would guess that whole series of strategies indeed was worth 6-12 points every game - this was pretty commonly used by all the top coaches

another one that far fewer knew about was using DT'ing in a non conventional way - at one point, I led the nation in rebounding differential at EACH of my programs (don't worry 3-4 years ago, when plumpy was the guru of this game)

I don't think I played HD in the days you're referring to, but given the number of sophisticated players in the game now, I'm guessing that the situation you described would be analyzed here on the boards and at some point, others would be striving to match what you're doing to get a particular advantage (i.e. all the discussion on pulldowns). At least I'd hope so.

If a series of simple strategies is worth 6-12 points, and those strategies make logical sense (i.e. wearing out the opponent with pace), they should stay in. On the other hand, I don't want the RNG to mean nothing - I just don't want it to render a significant amount of gameplanning meaningless, which I think it does now. There's GOT to be a happy medium out there.
12/3/2009 7:21 AM
coach_billyg
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between team planning (given a level of talent for a team, arranging it in a way to maximize how efficiently you use it) and game planning, i think we have a happy medium. i like to group those two together, even though team planning is part of the recruiting process, its largely independent of raw recruiting ability. also, i think you have to have a team setup right to fully take advantage of team planning, so i feel the two go hand in hand.

at an equal level of talent, with average team and game planning, compared to exceptional, i feel you are looking at a 90/10 split or so (the better planned team being a 90% favorite). i think that is plenty. maybe its only 80/20 but i really doubt it!
12/3/2009 10:15 AM
muredskin00
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I think we're given most of the necessary options to hit the happy medium (with a few exceptions - individual defensive matchups for one - but let's ignore that for the moment), but far too often (in my opinion), the RNG gives us results that make no sense in the context of the gameplan we set. Cleaning that up would make other issues easier to address.
12/3/2009 12:19 PM
oldave
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#1 - in any specific game, do you feel one of those 11 settings gives you a better chance of winning than the other 10?

a - yes, i think. but not sure

#2 - do you think game to game the best setting changes?

a - yes , definitely ....I gameplan for the above reasons

#3 - how many points of differential do you think the ideal setting is worth, over the worst setting?

d - 5 to 7 sounds about right, but ive never thought about it much. in my mind, even if it only gives me a 1 point advnatage, im going to do it. i need every little bit i can get!

#4 - how many points of differential do you think the ideal setting is worth, vs the next closest setting (i.e. -1 to zero)?

c - 3-4, this is another answer i am quite unsure of. i know alot of guys prolly think it is only 1 point or so, but im inclined to think that it is a bit more than that. the trouble is, it is sooo hard to know these things even after the game is over as there were so many other variables at work.

#5 - with the upcoming engine change, how much do you think your answers are going to change?

c - a lot, actually, im kinda torn between b and c. i think alot depends on how well seble is able to achieve what he intends.

#6 - do you wish settings had more or less affect on winning

a - more, absolutely!

Extra Queston 1 - Code cracking??? first off, i would suspect that we are all triyng to find every little edge we can and if we can crack the code and find something that works every night... well, i know i dang well would try to exploit that to the limit. woudl i be mad if the code was tweaked to render my "magic button" less effective or possibly even totally ineffective? NO, not at all, in fact, i wish there were more unannounced tweaks (very small ones) to keep us guessing. im not saying i want a complete guessing game at what the right strategy is from night to night, but ultimately it is obviously bad for the game if there is one particular strategy (minus5, slowdown for instance) that works in nearly every instance and gives that coach an advantage every night. so, if admin sees this, i think they have to make a tweak. the ideal scenario, i think, would be that there are many "magic buttons" but they change depending on the other coaches settings, the off and def used by both teams, talent levels, tempo, etc. i realize it may be veyr difficult to get the simengine to that point, but i think that should be the goal and i think that admin should be able to tweak as needed to try to acheive that. obviously, there is a fine line between "tweaking" and a completely inconsistent simengine where you never know what you are going to get. i would prefer they err on the small side (so that tweaks may sometimes not be big enough to effect a change, but would almost never be overcorrections) but thats what i think.

i wonder if anyone agrees that unannounced tweaks by admin are okay? im guessing most folks would not like that, but i think it would help the game.
Extra Question 2 - yes, defintiely absolutely! having settings that work as intended and that increase the strategy aspect of the game is far, far more important to me than increasing realism. to me, the only thing i can thnk of right now that bugs me from a realism standpoint is some of the ultra-low scores, espectially with quality D1 teams involved. but even that takes a backseat to creating a game that empohasizes strategy decisions
I havent really played other games so i cant comment on that part
12/3/2009 12:49 PM
gillispie
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oldave, interesting question - do people feel unannounced tweaks by admin are ok? well, i think so, personally.

heres a similar question - how many people think admin already makes unannounced tweaks on a somewhat consistent basis? i think it happens, although i also think some of the variation we see are formulas based on the number of humans in a division. for example, i speculate that the d1 population has a significant effect on who will drop to d2 schools, but have never tracked anything to confirm that.
12/3/2009 1:21 PM
oldresorter
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since the same coaches win over and over again, is the issue that strategy does not exist or is it something else?

I know for a fact, gil thinks he knows how to win at this for example, I think lostm does too, my guess is clone does too, others also, maybe even myself, and in spite of his protests, oldavey plays a very mean HD game

from everything I can tell, the secret is understanding the nature of probability vs certainty, the nature of doing dozens of 1% correct which ups the probability of winning, rahter than one certain thing right and expecting it to guarantee a win

not announcing tweeks, really would not matter that much, UNTIL someone tweeks something game 35 and the tweek was really something unintentedly major, and the favorite loses in a NT title game by 75 points (this happenned to rails, he has never forgiven the game, not the tweek that I know of, just the result) - any of you think that changes the night of a NT game really is a good idea????



12/3/2009 1:34 PM
oldave
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but, OR, if it is unannounced.... how do you know that the little tweak cost you the NC, or was it one of your settings, or a few bad spins of the RNG wheel?

if it was possible to supsend all tweaking during the postseason,,, i would like that, but not sure if that woudl be possible with all the different worlds going

12/3/2009 1:55 PM
oldave
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Quote: Originally Posted By oldresorter on 12/03/2009
since the same coaches win over and over again, is the issue that strategy does not exist or is it something else?

im trying to figure out what your question is.

first of all, i dont think that anyone is saying that there is no strategy, just that we want strategic decisions to matter more. or at least that is what oldavey is triyng to say.

i would suspect this top handful of coaches you refer to (which oldavey is absolutely not a part of) will keep winning regardless of the changes that are made. and here is why:

1) they are smart dudes and they have a strong desire to win

2) they pay attention to what works and what doesnt and are willing to make adjustments as needed

3) they generally have alot of teams or have had alot of teams in the past. this, in combination with 1) and 2) means that they have a slightly accelerated learning curve as compared to coaches who have fewer teams (that prolly sounds like a cop-out since i am one of those with fewer teams, and maybe it is, but i really dont mean it to be. to be honest i dont think i have enough of 1) and 2) to be at the level of these guys, regardless of how many teams i have)

4) they are generous with the Dew.

5) they are not creepy

12/3/2009 2:09 PM
oldave
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does anyone think that any of the elite coaches are where they are because they have found two or three little "secrets" ?

as opposed to the idea that they are a tiny bit better at a whole bunch of different things, and in general just have a better idea of what works.



I am pretty sure it is the second idea. but when guys like OR and gil and rails, etc run off 5 , 6, 7 NTs in a row, i really wonder. I think i have accused OR in the past of having a "magic button" that made him sooo dominant in tark for so long. it just got to a point where it seemed like he won any game that he wanted to win, and win he lost, it was just to keep us guessing and make it look good. i guess that the DT thing he mentioned might qualify, but it doesnt seem like it. i thought that maybe there was an extra option on his screen that said "win game?" and when he checked that box, he won. im serious.

12/3/2009 2:18 PM
oldresorter
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Quote: Originally Posted By oldave on 12/03/2009
but, OR, if it is unannounced.... how do you know that the little tweak cost you the NC, or was it one of your settings, or a few bad spins of the RNG wheel?

if it was possible to supsend all tweaking during the postseason,,, i would like that, but not sure if that woudl be possible with all the different worlds going





trouble is a post season is going on all of the time, with ten worlds

in my case, my #1 team losing to an engine change was announced, but i did not realize it was aimed at me until sometime later, the coach who got it changed told me (daalter)

thing I don't get, if you want the game to work more consistently and predictably, why would you want unnannounced tweeks to make it inconsistent and unpredictable, because noone could surely predict the tweeks could they?
12/3/2009 3:57 PM
coach_billyg
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its kind of sad that the engine can't be rolled out to different worlds at different times. that is a pretty fundamental design flaw, and i just don't buy that they couldn't make it work without too much trouble. unannounced tweaks should be between seasons, no exceptions. if something is bad enough you have to tweak it mid season, i feel we should know about it.

anyway, the reason i support unannounced tweaks is that i don't feel we are supposed to be hand fed, and should be kept guessing long-term. if wis feels big men shoot too badly, and they want to enact a plan where they slowly make them better, to improve global big man fg% by say 2% over 5 seasons, then i have no problem with them just going and doing it. i don't want them to tell me, if you can just stick with what you know without having to change it (unless directed to do so), it seems things would get too stale. i like to experiment, i like to question and consider everything, and i think coaches should continue to benefit from it regardless of how long they played.

oldave, re: your question on some people having a couple tricks, or a bunch of little things, i think you are right about it being little things. honestly, not 1 thing i do is extraordinary, there is no strategy or tactic i use that dozens to hundreds of other coaches don't use. also, i have pretty limited success when you really look at it. i have won exactly 0 times with man, zone, and fb combined. ive never even made the elite 8, or the 2nd round with zone (if memory serves, which could go either way). if you throw away superclasses, i never won with the flex either (i didn't even recruit the superclass, although, most players were way below my standards, so that might be better). i am in the process of branching out, but have yet to show anything for it. the real reason i have done well is, i think about things quite a bit, trying to be a student of the game, and trying to squeeze every last drop out of each aspect, like you talked about. or maybe it was OR, who said its about the 1%s. to me, its all about the 1%s, and the tenths of %s, if you are talking chance of winning a single game. the other half of it is, i narrowed my search to 1 strategy type, with 1 defense and 2 offenses, instead of a buckshot type of approach. this has let me dig deep, and really understand 1 strategy, and try to let as little slip through the cracks as possible. initially, i looked around, breadth wise, to figure what strategy to delve into. i got lucky there, it was pretty straightforward, with me starting in the midst of rails and ORs complete domination of tark. it just so happened, all 3 of those teams did it with fast, athletic, pressing teams. finally, i would say winning a bunch of times with 1 strategy is not nearly as impressive as winning a with a bunch of different strategies. i would like to know how those guys pull it off. whoever they are, ive never really looked outside tark, so i have no idea who that might be... although, id speculate a few guesses :P i wonder how many people have won multiple titles with multiple defenses? or multiple with fb and another offense?
12/3/2009 7:14 PM
emy1013
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Quote: Originally Posted By coach_billyg on 12/03/2009its kind of sad that the engine can't be rolled out to different worlds at different times. that is a pretty fundamental design flaw, and i just don't buy that they couldn't make it work without too much trouble. unannounced tweaks should be between seasons, no exceptions. if something is bad enough you have to tweak it mid season, i feel we should know about it.

anyway, the reason i support unannounced tweaks is that i don't feel we are supposed to be hand fed, and should be kept guessing long-term. if wis feels big men shoot too badly, and they want to enact a plan where they slowly make them better, to improve global big man fg% by say 2% over 5 seasons, then i have no problem with them just going and doing it. i don't want them to tell me, if you can just stick with what you know without having to change it (unless directed to do so), it seems things would get too stale. i like to experiment, i like to question and consider everything, and i think coaches should continue to benefit from it regardless of how long they played.

oldave, re: your question on some people having a couple tricks, or a bunch of little things, i think you are right about it being little things. honestly, not 1 thing i do is extraordinary, there is no strategy or tactic i use that dozens to hundreds of other coaches don't use. also, i have pretty limited success when you really look at it. i have won exactly 0 times with man, zone, and fb combined. ive never even made the elite 8, or the 2nd round with zone (if memory serves, which could go either way). if you throw away superclasses, i never won with the flex either (i didn't even recruit the superclass, although, most players were way below my standards, so that might be better). i am in the process of branching out, but have yet to show anything for it. the real reason i have done well is, i think about things quite a bit, trying to be a student of the game, and trying to squeeze every last drop out of each aspect, like you talked about. or maybe it was OR, who said its about the 1%s. to me, its all about the 1%s, and the tenths of %s, if you are talking chance of winning a single game. the other half of it is, i narrowed my search to 1 strategy type, with 1 defense and 2 offenses, instead of a buckshot type of approach. this has let me dig deep, and really understand 1 strategy, and try to let as little slip through the cracks as possible. initially, i looked around, breadth wise, to figure what strategy to delve into. i got lucky there, it was pretty straightforward, with me starting in the midst of rails and ORs complete domination of tark. it just so happened, all 3 of those teams did it with fast, athletic, pressing teams. finally, i would say winning a bunch of times with 1 strategy is not nearly as impressive as winning a with a bunch of different strategies. i would like to know how those guys pull it off. whoever they are, ive never really looked outside tark, so i have no idea who that might be... although, id speculate a few guesses :P i wonder how many people have won multiple titles with multiple defenses? or multiple with fb and another offense


Just a small pat on my own back, I've won 7 titles over three ID's. They have been with Flex/Zone, 2 Flex/Man, Motion/Man, 2 Tri/Man, and Mot/FCP. So I guess I qualify for the different O/D criteria! :^)
12/3/2009 7:57 PM
coach_billyg
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nicely done emy!
12/3/2009 8:38 PM
oldave
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hmmm,

i have won with:

FB/Press Syr-TarkD1

Mo/Zo Oneonta Iba D3 ( three times, agianst very though competition)

Mo/Zo-Pr Oneonta-Iba D3 (slightly less comeptetionthan the early years above)



also, i reached the title game with

Motion/Man HobawillyTarkD3 season 1 (only to lose to Plumpy in his farewell game)

FB/ZoPr Syr-TarkD1



and finally, for what its worth, I have gone to elite8 with

Flex/Man Ulala-TarkD1 (early days, lots of simmys)

Triangle/Press ENaz-woodenD3 (superclass)

Motion/Man PennSt-Tark D1 (early days)

Triangle/Man Tampa-TarkD2 (twice, in the early days)

FB/Man CalPolyPoo-WoodenD2





So, i guess at least I have at least made the elite 8 with every one of the offenses and defenses, so Ive got that going for me. ;-)

that and a quarter will get me a piece of cherry flavored bubble gum in the mall
12/4/2009 7:17 AM
oldave
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Quote: Originally Posted By oldresorter on 12/03/2009
Quote: Originally Posted By oldave on 12/03/2009

but, OR, if it is unannounced.... how do you know that the little tweak cost you the NC, or was it one of your settings, or a few bad spins of the RNG wheel?

if it was possible to supsend all tweaking during the postseason,,, i would like that, but not sure if that woudl be possible with all the different worlds going






trouble is a post season is going on all of the time, with ten worlds

in my case, my #1 team losing to an engine change was announced, but i did not realize it was aimed at me until sometime later, the coach who got it changed told me (daalter)

thing I don't get, if you want the game to work more consistently and predictably, why would you want unnannounced tweeks to make it inconsistent and unpredictable, because noone could surely predict the tweeks could they?
hmmmmm, maybe i have overstated my case here. I am not saying that i want hndreds of random little tweaks going on all the time.

I am just saying that the admin needs to have an arsenal at his disposal that can combat the super-buttons that will surely pop up over time.

and i think the best way to deal with this is to have the system set up in such a way that admin can react to trends by twekaing certain parameters.

maybe there is a different way, but what i am getting at is that if we ever get to a point where there is a clear formula that is better than all the rest, for instance, if triangle offense was almost allways better in any case and it got to the point where everyone was running triangle offense, then maybe the engine is baised towrds the triangle. i woudl want admin to react to that. and, in the past, it has really felt liek (maybe not really true, but definitely "felt like" TK would make little adjustments that made different offenses and defenses stronger or weaker. in think in the early days there were "eras" where zone would dominate, and then it would seem to get weaker and man would get stronger. Lately it seems that press (or combo) has been a bit stronger than the others for quite a while. mayeb not true, but lots of fairly intelligent coaches think so.



oh well, not sure if any of that makes any sense at all, and i am certianly not 100% sold that i am right on this point. make a good argument and i oculd easiliy jump to the other side of the fence and demand that any tweak, no matter how minor, be announced.
12/4/2009 7:29 AM
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