I just realized what it is I have a serious problem with when it comes to upsets in HD.

If there's an upset because the underdog played out of their minds -- perfect game plan, going nuts from beyond the arc, something like that -- I don't really have a problem with it. And pretty much every "ridiculous" real life upset that gets cited follows that script, from 'Nova over Georgetown on up.

On the other hand, if there's an upset because the favorite plays way, way, way below their capabilities, that seems very wrong to me. The game that stuck in my craw (and hastened my exit out of HD) was one in which my very solid Naismith Tennessee team shot something like .136 from the floor against a defensively-mediocre-at-best sim-coached team.

Now, from a standard deviation perspective, both results are probably equally likely. From a "narrative" perspective, though, the first scenario makes sense while the second one doesn't.

Upsets happen because a heavy underdog does absolutely everything right.

Upsets don't happen because a heavy favorite does absolutely everything wrong. Teams that are capable of doing absolutely everything wrong wouldn't become heavy favorites in the first place.

I can see why that would be more frustrating, anton, but I don't really agree with the premise.

Sometimes good teams have bad days, days where they can't hit the broad side of the barn. I'm reminded of a couple seasons ago when my Badgers went ice cold against a packed-in ND State defense and lost to them at home.

Or even that UNC-College of Charleston game from a week or two ago. Charleston didn't play lights out (43% from the field), it was more UNC not playing well (38% fg, 10 missed ft's, untimely defensive lapses). Or when Old Dominion won at Georgetown this season, it was mostly GTown crapping the bed (they shot 30% in the first half, turned the ball over 18 times, missed 8 ft's) and ODU shot just a respectable 45%.

I truly think it happens both ways.

Look at the numbers you're quoting, dalter, compared to the HD game I'm talking about...

Yes, I would agree that your specific example of Tennessee shooting 13% is awry.

I just don't agree with the overall premise that upsets happen when the underdog plays really well, and not when the favorite plays poorly.