I think the problem with the 0 FTs or 2 FTs in a game more often than not is the # of fouls called in general for HD. If you look at the #s for HD and the NCAA its varies by about 5.5 from a quick eye test.

Here is a quick breakdown of the Big Ten (Big Time Grind it out slow it down but not that many fouls called league compared to the HD league)

NCAA stats = http://statsheet.com/mcb/referees

Big Ten- HD Total Fouls a Game / Real Life Total Fouls a Game

ILL 30.7/28.8
IND 33.0/37.7
IA 29.1/33.3
MCH 31.5/30.9
MSU 32.3/37.5
MIN 32.2/35.0
NW 26.7/34.2
OSU 32.0/30.6
PSU 33.2/31.2
PUR 25.8/33.9
WIS 31.0/32.9

305.2 / 366 = 61.2 more fouls for the conference per week or 5.5 a team

61.2 * (just 1/4 fouls is FT) = 30.6 FTs = 2.78 FT/per team

That is a lot of free throws missing from just the fouls alone not adding up.

HD Points/Game = 60.58
RL Points/Game = 62.41

If a team makes 70% of their FTs they would make up for the 2 point difference in scoring from HD and RL points per game as well.

I don't know how they decide fouls right now, but chances are another factor should be thrown as to what would in the HD world constitute a foul while shooting.

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All Conferences- HD Total Fouls a Game and Real Life Total Fouls a Game
Real Life
This is the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Pac 10, SEC all combined

2250 Fouls divided by 62 teams = 36.29 fouls per game / team

That is almost a 4 fouls/game raise.

HD Basketball
This is the HD version of the same conferences

1807 Fouls divided by 60 teams = 30.12 fouls per game / team

Right there is a 6.1 fouls per game they are missing
If you have 25% of fouls leading to FTs than you will get an additional 3 FTs per game, if you make 70% of them you will have a 2.1 ppg increase.

Next I will do a look a the # of possessions only problem will be the HD version of this but I can get the RL stats if someone knows how to get the HD stats from KNIGHT, as that is where I took everything else from.

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HD Posessions a Game
This is all for the Big Ten again...

I had to do a formula to come up with possessions.

FGA = Field Goals Attempted for the Year
TO = Turnovers for the year
FTA = Free Throws Attempted for the year

1.) Possessions/Game = (FGA+TO)/Games
2.) Possessions/Game = (FGA+TO+ .05 of FTA)/Games

1.) 65.38 Possessions / Game
2.) 66.23 Possessions / Game

I used 5% of FTA because I estimate 5% of times teams get the ball they get FT without taking a shot (IE: end of the game when team is fouling)

Partially from Ig
3.) Possessions/Game = (FGA - OFF REB) + TO + .25 of FTA)/Games

3.) 59.68 POssessions / Game

I think 1.75 of FT is in your mind the same as .25 for my forumla. Its getting just 25% of the FTs to count.

From others posts the 55 HD Poss/Game is based only on Slow Down and Normal Tempo throwing out the Uptempo data which the Real Life data keeps in it.

Real Life Posessions a Game

Big Ten = 61.55 Possessions per Game
ACC = 70.67 Possessions per Game
Big 12 = 68.58 Possessions per Game
Big East = 67.88 Possessions per Game
Pac 10 = 64 Possessions per Game
Sec = 70.58 Possessions per Game

All conferences = 67.21 Possessions per Game

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Possessions per Foul
Real Life
67.21 Possessions a game / 36.29 Fouls a Game = 1.85 Possessions per Foul


HD (Using a % of TO instead of the full amount, #3)
59.68 Possessions a game / 30.12 = 1.98 Possessions per Foul

With the new #3 formula it is closer that it was put still is off.

On the Year:
(Poss/Game)*(Fouls/Possession Difference)*(# of Games)
(59.68)*(1.98-1.85)*(30) = 7.8 fouls a game or 232.8 fouls for the year missing

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All information taken from D1 Knight as it is at the end of the season right now taking into account the whol season then including NIT/PIT/CT

The Big Ten isn't the greatest conf for making a comparison and you should probably do this over more worlds and conferences.

The issue is not the number of fouls called, the issue is the number of possessions in HD.

Try doing an analysis on number of possessions per foul in HD vs real life if you want to analyze the foul issue separately.

Quote: Originally Posted By mullycj on 1/21/2010
The issue is not the number of fouls called, the issue is the number of possessions in HD.

Try doing an analysis on number of possessions per foul in HD vs real life if you want to analyze the foul issue separately.

yep - which goes back to the 'slowdown' glitch

Part of the problem is the hard coding in the engine to get the percentage of fouls called/free throw attempts in the first and second half in line with the real life percentage breakdown. Whatever was done has caused the number of fouls called and free throw attempts in the first half to be very low. It's not uncommon the see teams shoot zero free throws in the first half and 20 in the second half.

Here is a thread I started a while ago. It has some possession data in it.

http://www.whatifsports.com/forums/threads.asp?ForumID=30&TopicID=391561&SearchPagePosition=1&search=possessions&searchMode=&searchIn=Topic&forum=30&searchSort=dateDESC&ReturnPage=Search

Based on that data. We can roughly estimate..

In real life :

67 possessions/game + 36 fouls per game = 1.86 possessions per foul



In a HD med/slow tempo game:

assume 55 possessions/game + 30 fouls per game = 1.83 possessions per foul

To me, it seems the problem is not fouls per posession but possessions per game.

Quote: Originally posted by mullycj on 1/21/2010Based on that data.  We can roughly estimate..In real life :67 possessions/game + 36 fouls per game = 1.86 possessions per foul In a HD med/slow tempo game:assume 55 possessions/game + 30 fouls per game = 1.83 possessions per foulTo me, it seems the problem is not fouls per posession but possessions per game.

Also your trying to estimate just med/slow tempo into your formula which is also incorrect in my mind. You either do the whole lot or you don't do it at all. Cause then you need to go through the NCAA data and adjust for every uptempo game that is in there.

Also I am not saying that tempo shouldn't be tweaked. I do think TEMPO SHOULD BE LOOKED AT. Not saying that teams shouldn't be effective running that or uptempo, but there needs to be a little more fight over tempo. You should be able to run teams out of games, or slow games way down, but there needs to be a reason to why it works not just that it does automatically.

I am trying to get at the fouls though in this forum thread. There does need to be more in my mind.

I think you need to tweak the formula for possessions a bit. The .05 for FTA doesn't make a lot of sense. If I understand it correctly, if a team has 40 FTA in a game, they get credit for 2 possessions.

Most formulas I've seen use roughly FTA/1.75 equal one possession. Using this number those 40 FTA in a game convert to 23 possessions.

A very common overall is FGA + TO - OFF REB + (FTA/1.75) = possessions.

If you use your raw numbers and adjust for incidents per possession, you'll probably still find fouls and FTA a bit lower in HD. But you'll also find others that are lower such as FGA and 3PTA.

Quote: Originally posted by Iguana1 on 1/21/2010I think you need to tweak the formula for possessions a bit.  The .05 for FTA doesn't make a lot of sense.   If I understand it correctly, if a team has 40 FTA in a game, they get credit for 2 possessions.Most formulas I've seen use roughly FTA/1.75 equal one possession.  Using this number those 40 FTA in a game convert to 23 possessions.A very common overall is FGA + TO - OFF REB + (FTA/1.75) = possessions.If you use your raw numbers and adjust for incidents per possession, you'll probably still find fouls and FTA a bit lower in HD.  But you'll also find others that are lower such as FGA and 3PTA.

I reworked the formula with the one you game me. Its a little lower now but still comes out to 7 fouls a game difference

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Really good info there Iguana1! Good job on compiling it.

I think the 3pts attempted though is based on the players and how they set their team. Since you took conferences that have humans in them they maybe lower than SIMAI but who knows. I think 3pts per game is more of something that users can control.

I must say though, I see the problem related to Fouls. Fouls occur less in HD because steals occur more. If you look at the steals there is another 1.2 steals a game which if that 1 steal is called a foul/reach in then your moving the personal fouls within acceptable range of +/-1 in my head.