What would you say the percentage is that your prospects don't reach their projected ratings?

What would you say the percentage is that your prospects exceed their projected ratings?

In your opinion what plays the most significant role in determining this?

95% don't, that's my guess.

#1 factor: accuracy of your projections.

The more you spend, the closer they'll be to an attainable level.

.0001%.

On your budget.

8k mitch!

Heh, will I ever catch you erff?

Even with $20M in ADV scouting, some projections are going to be too optimistic and some too pessimistic. At 0 ADV scouting, I've seen players blow through the projected ratings in half a season and I've seen players with 39 CUR/98 PRO that were complete and utter trash.

The most significant things in determining projected ratings are CURRENT RATINGS, AGE and YEARS PRO. The fewer years pro, the more chance of ratings development. (i.e. recent 18 year old draftee, with one pro season develops more rapidly than any 4-year pro who is 26 and in AAA or the ML) And the better the CURRENT RATINGS, the better the chance the player is going to develop into a major leaguer.

Projected ratings are mirages - they might be real or they might not be. I cannot stress how important CURRENT ratings are. Those are dependable. If they are borderline ML quality at age 18 and the guy has decent makeup, coaching and health...he's probably gonna be pretty good.

Quote: Originally posted by mitchrapp on 2/11/2010Heh, will I ever catch you erff?

yeah when i gets teh permaban

What you have to do to get a permaban?

get banned 4 times

I got only one. I have some work to do.

I would say the number one reason players don't make their "true" projections is injuries. Even a smallish, 30-day injury can cost you a few points of development, not to mention any ratings hits that happen as a direct result of the injury.