what is the thinking behind the philosophy that advanced scouting is a waste of budget $?

The thinking, by those who think that way, is threefold:

(1) If you spend less than $15 mil on Adv, your numbers start to be pretty far off anyway.

(2) You get $185 mil, and you have to save somewhere. This is one thing you can get around.

(3) Once a player has a good 1-2 seasons in the minors, an experienced owner will have a very good idea (in general- with a few exceptions) of where that player will max out at based on their progression. In fact, probably better than the projections, because you won't get fooled by guys who are going to fall way short of their projections.

(3a) The exceptions: DITRs are hard to account for using the progression method, and major injuries or one season of bad misuse by the owner can also throw things off a bit.

Major downside: Much harder to make trades involving kids in their 1st season or two in the minors, because you can't see how fast they are going to progress.

Upside: Save $$$ to use elsewhere.

Downside: No "read" on young players.

I think most experienced owners could do without ADV if they wanted but it is a nice safety net. Personally, I know how I develop players so, since I trust my drafting ability and player development, I don't feel I need it unless I'm going to be trading for players in their 2nd-3rd pro year. Since I don't care for the "rebuild" game, that probably won't be necessary.

Here's another way to look at it: Current ratings tend to be undervalued in most worlds, while projected ratings are overvalued.

By spending less to see future projections, you necessarily focus more attention (and money) on the present. Now that more quality players opt for free agency, this model can be fairly sustainable.

If a guy has played 2-3 seasons or so, you can get a good idea as to what he'll look like fully developed. Its just a lot harder for prospects who just got drafted.

That's what I don't understand. Why can't new owners spend 20 mill in advanced scouting, since that is the key time for someone to have it? It seems to perpetuate leagues where new owners get trade raped.

Quote: Originally Posted By opie100 on 2/26/2010That's what I don't understand. Why can't new owners spend 20 mill in advanced scouting, since that is the key time for someone to have it? It seems to perpetuate leagues where new owners get trade raped

the problem, like in real life, is the rapist not the victum(SP?). Even if they had the correct ratings most newbies do not understand them. The potential victum of trade rape needs to recognize their "falability" and choose to be careful. If you are not careful and seek protection (good advice) then trade rape will be the outcome even with an Adv of 20.

As a side note - Advance Scouting should include the Scouting of your opponent, esp their new players. In MLB that is a significant component of the job. If game outcome was partially based on Adv Scouting (what pitch to throw - were to put the defense etc) of the other team - esp in the playoffs - you can bet a lot of veteran owners would be putting money into advance scouting. Given what is actually covered it is a waste of good dollars once you understand the basics of the game.

I started out with very high advanced scouting when I first started and now, 7 seasons later, I'm decreasing it-- not just because I'm getting better at scouting, but because I'm in a position where I'm more about winning right now and not dealing for prospects. I also more or less know the projections of the better prospects already in my system. So what I'd say is, it's really a matter of where you're at right now. If you're looking to rebuild, I'd say go with lots of advanced scouting (especially since a player would have to be active for at least 2-3 years to get a good read on his projections which means you can barely target anyone below AA or even AAA if they're any good). If you're looking to win now, go with low advanced scouting and keep track of the prospects in your own system from when you had high advanced scouting, and let the draft and IFA's populate your farm system instead of trades.

The main reason I have 0 in advanced scouting is because every owner overvalues their own prospects. God help you if they drafted a pitching prospect in the first round it will take sacrificing your first born son to even enter negotiations. So I don't bother even attempting to trade for them. Thus, advanced scouting is worthless.

I zeroed advanced right from the beginning when I first started playing and I'd recommend that to any newbie as well. New owners don't need advanced scouting because the only reason you need it is if you are making big deals for 1st-round quality prospects, which are exactly the type of big deals that a newbie should be avoiding.

Here here Griv-BUT too much to ask for from WIS. Something that makes sense from a realistic perspective.

Besides, I don't think the ability exists any longer at WIS to implement this change to the game.

I'm a zero scouting guy and I don't think it's for everyone. If you don't trust your drafting and development skills, you need it. If you can't get a feel for the drafting/development skills of your trade partners, you need it. As for me, if I don't like the "feel" of a deal, I'll just pass. I don't have to trade RIGHT NOW!!! as some people feel they must. I can wait a couple of days.

Quote: Originally Posted By steelerstime on 2/27/2010
Here here Griv-BUT too much to ask for from WIS. Something that makes sense from a realistic perspective.

Besides, I don't think the ability exists any longer at WIS to implement this change to the game.

It would take a Serious update and should be signalled for at least a season of HBD (probably 2 seasons) before being implemented so that owners could adjust there budgets for the improved reality