I've got a AA team with some fair prospects. Two are LF/RF types with fielding numbers that are very close...basically mid 60's for range/glove with the arm a bit less. (OK they're better Lfer's)

They are both quite young and pretty close to projections already..so I think they'll get to them or within a point or two. Their hitting projections are below....Which guy would you think becomes the better MLer? I've been thinking that W. Hernandez would , with his better power nad better eye. But lately I'm thinking that J Dobson's contact and vR and his decent power might translate better.

Anyway...I've got time to wait on them and neither will be All-World, or even great..and maybe even just OK...but I was just interested in who you would prefer to have?



J. Dobson (22 years old) 73-OVR 76-Contact 69-power 50-vL 72-vR 51-eye

W. Hernandez (19) 82 48 83 59 49 87



Thanks...



Keith

Dobson is probably the better prospect, because of the superior vR. If he hits his projections, he should be decent -- .275ish with 20+ HRs.

Hernandez has more raw power, but the low splits will hurt him.

Dodson is at his peak and OPSing .828 in AA...that should tell you all you need to know about him.

Hernandez may have had a chance before the power update, but these days i'm not sure he'd cut it at the ML level. That being said, I'd give him a shot before Dodson.

Post steroid area, anyone with poor contact, splits and/or eye is most likely not going to give you what you would want out of him. You have to look at more than power these days - sitemail swamphawk if you need further

They both suck. Sorry, but it's the truth.

Minor league stats don't really matter.

Dodson won't walk a ton, which will keep his OBP modest. But he should be a decent player. Not a star, but not awful.

And that is the problem with the who is better questions. Everybody has a different idea of how to evaluate talent. Some might even say to you that things like your home park and your current lineup might make a difference.

If the question is, "which prospect has the better chance of being a good major-leaguer," the answer is Dodson.

There's no guarantee, of course.

If Dobson hits handed and Hernandez hits righthanded, they're a platoon that neither advances you towards a championship nor holds you back. But they're right at the cusp of being useful; they wouldn't have to miss their projections by too much to fall to or below replacement value.

Also, you can sign similar quality guys for $1-2M in free agency, so don't arb either of them.

Since the power reduction update, I've had much better luck with players who have good splits and either good Contact or BE. I barely look at power anymore. In one league, I had one of my premier(90+) power guys go from 59 HR/134 RBI to 26/69 with a 50+ point drop in BA. In another league I won 103 games and went to the WS with my 2 top HR guys hitting 23 and 22 HRs. Good hitters don't necessarily have to be power hitters.