Player Growth Estimation: Help! Topic

I'm trying to work out a trade...a prospect for a prospect. But since I'm only at the beginning of my 3rd season, I've never watched one develop fully. I'd like to know how close this guy will get to his projected ratings:

Curt Beltran

I have $14 mil in Advanced Scouting, and it tells me

80 control
70 v LHP
70 v RHP
88 1st pitch
55 2nd pitch

Thanks in advance.
4/7/2010 7:32 PM
Though I don't really use it myself, it has been suggested (by someone who apparently tracked it, sorry I can't give proper credit because I don't recall a name) that you can predict ratings somewhat by taking the S2 line, subtracting the S1 line, then multiplying that number by 2.5 and adding it to the S1 line.

So, for this guy, his S1 vs RH was 49. His S2 vs RH (starting line) was 54, so a 5-point difference. Multiply it by 2.5, (round up to) 13. 13 + 49 = 62.

Not saying it's right or wrong, but that's how it has been explained in the forums before and some people swear by it.
4/7/2010 7:42 PM
I've used that exact method for awhile now, and while it's not perfect it's pretty good. Plus you don't have to tie up a bunch of $$ in advanced scouting.
4/7/2010 7:47 PM
I use something similar, but I factor in makeup and use s2 and s3 as context. Its still not perfect (pretty close most of the time), but it's almost impossible to get exact considering influences of coaching, pt, injuries......
4/7/2010 8:07 PM
DUR HTH STM CNT LFT RT VEL GB P1 P2 P3 P4 P5
28 79 68 72 65 60 80 79 79 57 50 44 9

Thats my guess, but like I said, I like 2 seasons to be more accurate
4/7/2010 8:10 PM
i usually take the computer projections (i use 18 advance scouting b/c i have the money for it right now) and then i subtract a couple points from every category
4/8/2010 3:41 AM
Player Growth Estimation: Help! Topic

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