I had a guy win the CY Young the prior season, I took him to Arb and I won. So its hard to figure the system. I've low balled and won. I've played enough to know there is no rhyme and reason to arbitration. You win the ones you should lose and 90% of the time you lose the ones you want to win.

The most important to ask yourself, "Do I really want this guy at his asking price?" If the answer is no, then take what you can in a trade or release the guy. Let someone else overpay. So what if he has a monster season. There is no guarantee he would be bring that same season to your team.

Quote: Originally Posted By robocoach on 4/05/2010Sure it isn't "pour"

That folks, is golden.

Quote: Originally Posted By prezuiwf on 4/05/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By tecwrg on 4/05/2010

FYI . . . you cannot undercut his demands by that much and expect to win. You'll lose 99.99999999999999999999% of the time.

I disagree; in arbitration I always use the "similar players" thing as a benchmark. I had a player who was a decent SS and wanted something like $9.5 million when similar players got something more like $4 million. I offered the exact guideline number and the arbitrator sided with me.

I'm not doubting you, but I have never experienced this. To offer a guy $4M when he's asking $9.5 an win the arb is unheard of in my experience(and just about everyone else here I'm willing to bet). To expect to win an arb offering less than half of what a guy is asking is highly unlikely. And if you do, you're going to have a seriously ****** off player.

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If a guy is asking $9.5M and he gets $4M, that will **** him off. Obviously if the player wins it won't.

Arbitrators are like feral animals. They can smell fear. If you can't afford to lose an arb, you will lose it -- no matter how close your offer is to the demand. For that reason, I now budget to lose every arb.

On the bright side, there's always a chance you'll be able to re-sign a released player around Rule5 time for even less than you would have offered in arbitration. No guarantees, of course.