Quote: Originally posted by kahrtmen on 4/25/2010It would be interesting to see how the injuries are distributed. My sense is that the players with low health (<50) have fewer injuries than they probably should, and that players in the high 90s have more.
I think this is a perfect example of selection bias. Look it up.
I'm positive that if there was a "world snapshot" with injury information, the data would show EXACTLY what we all think it should - low health guys getting hurt the most and the worst. But when it happens, it's not remarkable because they are mostly ineffective minor leaguers.
Only when someone really good AND on our team gets hurt, does it become notable.
I have a couple low health guys; they get dinged up all the time. I've got a 99 health, $20M/season 5+time MVP who got a neck ouchie running to 1b that cost him 80 games and me the World Series...and while I felt like doing my Nancy Kerrigan impersonation, I instead looked at the 22 other guys on that team who qualify as "good" who didn't get hurt that season. Or the season before that. Or the season before that. Tomorrow, when I log in and see that another one of my 1's and 0's has hit the injury lottery, I'll immediately look at his health rating and wonder "why?!" but deep down, I know the answer.
Guys get hurt because injuries happen. Injuries happen most frequently and most severely to bad and mediocre players. The "odds" are with me - but sometimes the 99 health guy is going to roll snake eyes, and that's just part of the game.