Should he play in the majors... Topic

tmacfan12
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This guy would be in my Starting rotation this year. He is 24, a 67 ovr that projects to a 76.

Hanley Tracy
5/29/2010 9:09 AM
soxfan121
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I would wait to call him up until ~23 minor league days have passed and keep him from earning a full season of service time but he can be a successful ML pitcher for you, no doubt. If you hold back on promoting him until after ~23 days, he'll be "pre-arb" for an extra season, which would matter to you long term.

Find a waiver wire guy to slot in as your 5th starter for 4 turns around the rotation and then call your prospect up.
5/29/2010 9:18 AM
dedelman
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1) Oddly enough, I see him as currently a 68 OVR... anyone have any clues why that would be? Or do you see him as a 68 and the 67 is a typo?

2) Personally, I would trade him fast, to someone who ignores the 15 GB/FB and/or doesn't know that the 2 years' pro experience means he's not going to get that much better. Right now I see him as a very bottom of the barrel ML pitcher, and his ceiling as only a touch higher.
5/29/2010 10:46 AM
MikeT23
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Really? Players stop developing in their 2nd season? I did not know this. I guess you learn something new every day.



Or you just get bad info. The guy hasn't even had a development cycle. He's a 4th-5th starter on most teams. And, I imagine, he's going to develop into a 3. That said, I'm sure your training is only 14m so he's not going to get anywhere near 76.
5/29/2010 11:01 AM
dedelman
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Quote: Originally Posted By MikeT23 on 5/29/2010Really? Players stop developing in their 2nd season? I did not know this. I guess you learn something new every day


Or you just get bad info. The guy hasn't even had a development cycle. He's a 4th-5th starter on most teams. And, I imagine, he's going to develop into a 3. That said, I'm sure your training is only 14m so he's not going to get anywhere near 76
Mike, this is a newly-minted world. Because it says he has 2 seasons pro experience I'm guessing he has been created in his 3rd season. Most players develop very little in season 4 and beyond, as you well know, and they also improve less in their 3rd season than they do in the first two.

Based on the above, I'm guessing that he will improve about 3-4 points in the key categories this season and then be essentially done. I may be wrong, but it's not ridiculous advice. And in my book, if he does that he will be an SP5, and I bet you can get more for him than an SP5 in trade.

Let us know how this guy plays out.
5/29/2010 12:19 PM
mitchrapp
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Play him if you think he can help. Forget the ~20 day blah.
5/29/2010 1:06 PM
mitchrapp
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And I've had guys improve more in their 3rd season than their 2nd. So no quarentee he slows down.
5/29/2010 1:09 PM
tecwrg
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Quote: Originally Posted By dedelman on 5/29/2010
1) Oddly enough, I see him as currently a 68 OVR... anyone have any clues why that would be? Or do you see him as a 68 and the 67 is a typo?

2) Personally, I would trade him fast, to someone who ignores the 15 GB/FB and/or doesn't know that the 2 years' pro experience means he's not going to get that much better. Right now I see him as a very bottom of the barrel ML pitcher, and his ceiling as only a touch higher.



Splits of 68/84, and four above-average pitches are "very bottom of the barrel"?

Really?
5/29/2010 1:14 PM
MikeT23
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So, dedel, you think the guy is going to have 63 control, 71/87 splits and pitches of 76/66/66/59 at season's end? More or less, of course.

And that's a SP5 for you?

5/29/2010 1:47 PM
dedelman
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Quote: Originally Posted By MikeT23 on 5/29/2010
So, dedel, you think the guy is going to have 63 control, 71/87 splits and pitches of 76/66/66/59 at season's end? More or less, of course.
And that's a SP5 for you?

Fair enough. The answer is yes, but it should be regarded as idiosyncratic, because I value GB more than most, and pitches less than anyone I know. So what I should say is that I think he's an SP5, but most experienced owners would not. Even I would probably regard him as midrotation quality in a park that kills homers relative to other offense, like Detroit or OKC.
5/29/2010 3:52 PM
movet22
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I think this guy's fate is easily decided by where you play. In most places, he'll be a solid #3 SP, he'll put up decent numbers and be a good matchup against another teams #3. in a pitchers park, like Safeco (somewhere with deep fences), he'll have better numbers and could be a #2 SP. however, If he were to play in a hitters park, he will struggle immensely. So it depends on where you play, but for me, playing in Scottsdale, that 15 GB/FB could be devastating.
5/30/2010 11:50 AM
Should he play in the majors... Topic
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