New engine - guard dominated scoring Topic

achampa1
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I'm seeing a big difference, so much so that on my Jacksonville State team in Phelan, I'm almost refusing to run a 2-3 zone at all, whatsoever. I switched to a 3-2, and even going plus, I'm noticing no negative difference in rebounding, which shouldn't happen. My guess is that they figure my 3-2 zone is grabbing more long rebounds off threes. This would be fine, but if I'm playing a 3-2 +2, why is the engine making a team shooting that many threes to begin with?
6/3/2010 9:55 AM
cthomas22255
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Here's what I'm talking about in terms of FTA rate (FTA per FGA) for my guards compared to last year:
Position Name Last season This season % change
PG Kane .314 .56 78%
PG Clark .329 1.14 246%
SG M.Jackson .166 .73 340%
SG McGuire .229 .73 219%
SF D. Adams .40 .37 -8%
SF K. Jackson .63 .63 0%
C Tarrance .387 .65 68%
C Ervin .299 .32 7%
PF Morris .275 .74 169%
PF Alleyne .32 .47 48%

I should note that Morris is taking fewer FGAs this season. But you can see the huge increase in FTAs for the guards compared to the other positions. This has WAY boosted their productivity, I don't see how you guys can argue against this.

Morris was my ppp leader last season at 1.18, this season he's near the bottom. Ervin was also about 1.10, and is at 1.02 right now.
Kane is producing 1.42 ppp, which is up from .98 last season. Clark is at 1.34, McGuire is at 1.25. All of those are up from about 1 ppp last season. The increased number of fouls on guards is the difference.

There hasn't been that big of a rating or IQ increase since last year.

My overall offense went from being just about 1 PPP at this time last season to 1.21, and if anything last season's SOS was easier (currently #65 sos). My defense is also the same as last year right now at .77 PPP. My steals are down (I press) a bit from last season and fouls are up slightly. I don't see much difference in 3-point shooting.

Again, my entire playing roster is the same as last year. Ratings are slightly higher but not much for the 6 seniors.
6/3/2010 9:58 AM
uwbball
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Quote: Originally posted by cthomas22255 on 6/03/2010
Quote: Originally posted by uwbball on 6/02/2010Ya but your also seeing the swing back from many sub-par teams running the press where not it has more fouls being committed.
Give it 2 or so seasons after the bad press teams are fewer and it will probably even out. Also, where is your PPP analysis for the general divisions then? Also, how do you figure it out for the whole division?

I am usually really good at finding stats like this but have found nothing on PPP ratings for the NCAA, so how do you know they don't mirror the NCAA now? I will keep looking but I don't see anything right now.
Uh, kenpom.com.

Can you link the actual stats? I am not seeing the PPP anywhere... Also, do you track PPP for every HD team out there or only yours?
6/3/2010 10:22 AM
dalter
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cthomas, I'm not arguing with you about fouls being drawn at an increased rate. I'm simply disputing your notion that in the old engine, bigs were more effective than guards on a point-per-shot basis, which is not even remotely true.
6/3/2010 10:37 AM
uwbball
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You say that last years schedule was easier?

Well I must say right now you have only played 1 top 50 RPI team. You should be crushing these teams that are +100 with the really good team you have at UTEP. Most likely your guards are able to beat their guards so why would your big-men get the ball?

Your team has 6 Seniors and 4 Juniors (pretty much all your mins)
Opponents
Starters
Perimeter (SFs included here)
Sr(9) Jr(5) So(6) Fr(1)
Inside
Sr(11) Jr(2) So(1) Fr()

Total Playing 10+ mins
Perimeter (SFs included here)
Sr(10) Jr(10) So(17) Fr(4)
Inside
Sr(12) Jr(6) So(5) Fr(7)

It would seem that the majority of players on their teams that are upperclassmen are inside.

Perimeter 20 upper-class vs 21 So/Fr
Inside 18 upper-class vs 12 So/Fr

This could be apart of the early entries? Or your luck of the draw. As of right now though your RPI is no blazing meaning the teams will probably end up fouling you more cause you are better then them.

Finally D1 will probably take 2-4 years to get into the realm of the engine because of how everyone on that level used to be maxed out and players are not supposed to be like that anymore, supposedly. If you look down at D3 though where my experience is so far, my D1 school is in Knight, you will notice probably a level view though.
6/3/2010 10:49 AM
kmasonbx
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FT rate for guards this season are definitely way up, but I think in the old engine guards just didn't get fouled enough. How often did a guard get double digit FTAs in the old engine, I'd say it was a very low %. It's usually guards who lead the way in FTAs.
6/3/2010 10:59 AM
cthomas22255
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Quote: Originally posted by dalter on 6/03/2010cthomas, I'm not arguing with you about fouls being drawn at an increased rate. I'm simply disputing your notion that in the old engine, bigs were more effective than guards on a point-per-shot basis, which is not even remotely true.

I don't look at points per shot, per se. I use Dean Oliver's formulas for calculating/estimating points created for individual possessions used. But, I think my assertion would be the same as on a per-shot basis, so we can agree to disagree. I can say that definitely now for my team, I'm getting a ppp for my guards higher than I've ever seen for any positions ever in the last 2 years.

As for the above question about PPP, go to kenpom.com and you'll see offensive/defensive efficiency for each team. click on any individual team and you'll see the calculations for each individual player. Pomeroy lifted most of his stuff from Dean Oliver's book (look at his help section for the reference) but has added a few of his own twists in over the years.

I only track this stuff for my team unless I'm scouting another team or someone posts a "what's wrong with my team?" question in the forum.
6/3/2010 2:34 PM
cthomas22255
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Quote: Originally posted by uwbball on 6/03/2010You say that last years schedule was easier?

Nice breakdown of my opponents, and probably a good observation about their strengths inside. Those disadvantages wouldn't have led to such lopsided scores in the past, though. I played some home non-conf games last season, but none this season. My toughest games are ahead, so stay tuned.
6/3/2010 2:38 PM
uwbball
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ya its really hard to say anything about the engine. Have 2 wait a season or two, ya check back in after the NT to let me know. Also personally i always thought last engine was guard dominated lol. While i never made the final 4, i did have some good teams. I am still interested in the math for the ncaa. I only run across the rating for teams not each player. in the end this engine does make younger teams and tired teams commit alot more fouls it would seem.
6/3/2010 2:50 PM
dalter
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Quote: Originally Posted By cthomas22255 on 6/03/2010

Quote: Originally posted by dalter on 6/03/2010
cthomas, I'm not arguing with you about fouls being drawn at an increased rate. I'm simply disputing your notion that in the old engine, bigs were more effective than guards on a point-per-shot basis, which is not even remotely true.

I don't look at points per shot, per se. I use Dean Oliver's formulas for calculating/estimating points created for individual possessions used. But, I think my assertion would be the same as on a per-shot basis, so we can agree to disagree. I can say that definitely now for my team, I'm getting a ppp for my guards higher than I've ever seen for any positions ever in the last 2 years.




What formula do you use? I use a simple PPS formula and perimeter players literally trounced bigs in the old engine. Not even close. That's why I'm so surprised about your statement. (Not to mention that I set my distro accordingly with huge results -- both of my DII teams being reigning national champs and my {low} DI team going S16 or better five straight seasons.)

(Note that I'm not talking about a comparison between the old and new engines, but purely about smalls vs. bigs in the old engine.)
6/3/2010 3:06 PM
cthomas22255
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Quote: Originally posted by uwbball on 6/03/2010I am still interested in the math for the ncaa. I only run across the rating for teams not each player.

It's clearly there on the website. It's called offensive efficiency or abbreviated Ortg there. This is for Kentucky.
He doesn't do Oliver's defensive efficiency b/c he has qualms with its usefulness.
6/3/2010 3:49 PM
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