Posted by a_in_the_b on 6/23/2010 8:00:00 PM (view original):
THere hasn't been longenough for people to learn new systems yet. You can't make any judgments on what people choose for defenses yet.
OK, when I looked at defenses in the new engine, wanted to look at teams that had played the same defense the previous season (under the old engine). If that team had switched from one season to the next, there would still be residual ability to play the old defense--easily spotted. I screened those teams out. That also screened out the teams that played combo defenses. Was only interested in isolating defenses, to see how they were faring under the new engine. In other words, if a team used press the last year of the old engine and press under the new engine, it was readily apparent from their IQ at the various defenses. My sample for Div I, for example, screened out some 40-odd teams that were in transition from one defense to another--or played some form of combo. So the study screened out "people learning new systems". Did a study on eight Div III conferences under the old engine. Those conferences, chosen at random, must have done well in OOC, because net record was well over .500. Zone was 44%; man, 53% and press a whopping 63%. Probably would have tended closer together had the sample been larger, but FB-Press was the way to go. As noted in the last post, zone still lags in the new engine, especially in Divs II and III, but even some in Div I. Press was still significantly better than man in the Div III sample; somewhat better than man in the Div II sample, and about even with man in Div I. Hope this clears things up. What I learned, as noted earlier, is that reports of the death of the press are a bit premature. Now, reports of the death of the FB? .....
6/24/2010 5:44 PM (edited)