Will this player develop Topic

srtfoxhound
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There is a player in the upcoming draft (my scouting budget is 14) and I am trying to decide if he will develop. His Patience is 44/70 and makeup is 40/42.

Stamins is 63/84
Control is 58/100
VsL is 40//70
VsR is 55/82
Vel is 76/94
GB/FB is 65/86
Pitches are 64/87, 58/74, 41/69, 31/50.

Overall is projected to be an 88. 28/33 Dura and 90/100 health.

There is some solid hitters in the draft but pitching comes at a premium. If this guy developed to within 10 points of his projects on these categories he would still be a solid pitcher IMO but how well would he really develop? I have yet to really understand if a 50 makeup means the player is a complete bust or if he will still develop just not to his projections.

Thanks for the help.
6/25/2010 11:09 AM
eeyore1959
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Your coaching will do as much to develop him as where you place him, or his patience and makeup.
6/25/2010 11:30 AM
danmam
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As long as you have decent coaching and don't do something stupid like demote him while he's developing, he should get somewhat close to his projections, it'll just take 3 or 4 years.
6/25/2010 12:18 PM
dedelman
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Develpoment is a very predictable function, dependent mostly on number of professional seasons, coaching, playing time, and a little bit on age.  For draftees, who all have zero professional seasons, if you give them solid coaching and full time play they will develop along a predictable arc.  Makeup has very little to do with this (much more to do with decline).

Regarding this player-- those arcs essentially never show an improvement of 30 in any one category, and 42 is out of the question (for a player like this who is too good to be a Diamond in the Rough).   If you plan around mid 80s control and mid 60s VsL you will be far less disappointed.

6/25/2010 12:29 PM
soxfan121
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Posted by dedelman on 6/25/2010 12:29:00 PM (view original):

Develpoment is a very predictable function, dependent mostly on number of professional seasons, coaching, playing time, and a little bit on age.  For draftees, who all have zero professional seasons, if you give them solid coaching and full time play they will develop along a predictable arc.  Makeup has very little to do with this (much more to do with decline).

Regarding this player-- those arcs essentially never show an improvement of 30 in any one category, and 42 is out of the question (for a player like this who is too good to be a Diamond in the Rough).   If you plan around mid 80s control and mid 60s VsL you will be far less disappointed.

+100 

Brevity, man. That's an awesome, helpful post.
6/25/2010 11:24 PM
sordie
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Interesting take on things, dedelman.

I've always believed makeup was a major component of player development, but these thoughts were based on purely anecdotal observations.  Maybe it'd be worth taking a closer look.
6/26/2010 2:50 PM
MikeT23
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I firmly believe that make-up plays a very important role in development.  I'm happy to see that others don't.
6/26/2010 5:42 PM
Will this player develop Topic
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