Lineup suggestions Topic

bob squad
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If you guys have some time, could you suggest some possible lineups for the team below. The home park is Fenway/

I cannot seem to figure out how to cut & paste this correctly

Al Rivera (R) 63 78 56 79 53 68 73 30 6 20 63 59 46
Eduardo Chavez (R) 76 92 68 41 0 40 46 18 30 34 77 74 96
Ricardo Gonzalez (R) 96 87 81 75 64 60 78 0 37 45 29 29 23
Rolando DeJesus (R) 79 85 77 80 70 84 80 36 46 28 37 38 7
Fernando Gonzalez (R) 86 80 74 73 70 60 84 82 78 88 62 63 15
Aramis Espinosa (L) 73 99 34 49 40 27 35 30 90 82 89 91 11
Ralph Sierra (R) 80 99 30 22 52 28 30 67 89 83 88 87 3
Mark Suzuki (R) 87 94 47 44 72 66 71 63 76 76 92 85 16
Oswaldo Escobar (L) 66 58 52 40 75 61 69 57 75 87 48 59 8
Rico Cairo (R) 60 70 49 48 47 39 38 16 78 89 76 84 4
Brandon Hoffman (R) 80 94 44 59 46 42 26 30 81 82 84 90 2
Julius Bolton (R) 74 65 78 54 77 81 70 43 39 25 37 38 15
9/7/2010 10:21 AM (edited)
jimmystick
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What ratings am I looking at here?  If you copy/paste from Internet Explorer it works perfectly.  Try that. Otherwise Try this: http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py
9/7/2010 12:50 PM
deanod
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Dejesus and F Gonzalez look pretty nice, a few guys look passable, but half of those guys have no business being on an ML roster.  I'd start with

DH R Gonzalez
2B F Gonzalez
1B Dejesus
C Rivera
3B Suzuki
LF
RF
CF
SS Espinosa

Rivera and Suzuki are very weak for 4/5 hitters, they are moreso 7/8 types.  So I would definitely take Cairo, Bolton, and Escobar off the ML roster and try to replace them with some guys that you can actually use in the OF.  I'm sure there are some scrap heap FA's left who would be a drastic improvement over their roster spots, and you can always try to swing a trade or two. 
9/7/2010 1:40 PM
jtrinsey
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The way I set my lineup (influenced by a post I once read on lineup optimization... I think at Beyond the Boxscore), is:

First of all, 5 best batters are always in the top 5 spots. If they fit into the following, even better:
(1) I prefer the 1st batter to have the lowest ISO amongst my top-5 batters, or, alternatively thinking, the guy amongst your top 5 who's value is more in his OBP than in his SLG
(2) Since the 2nd spot is the spot in your lineup that comes up most frequently with a runner on and 1 or 0 outs; I prefer to have a fast guy here, to cut down on double-plays.
(3) Since the 3rd spot comes up with 2 outs more than any other position in the lineup, I put the opposite of (1) here and go with my highest ISO or guy amongst my top 5 who's value is more in his SLG than his OBP
(4) Nothing special here, just the next best hitter.
(5) The last guy.

Interestingly enough, since they do get slightly fewer at bats, most simulations seem to suggest that the 5-spot hitter should be better than the 3-spot hitter, since the 3-spot hitter is often on with 2 outs and nobody on. The 5-spot hitter comes up more with 2 outs and runners in scoring position, which means that, over the course of a season, their average at bat is slightly more important than the 3-spot hitter. I think this is also the contributing logic to the contribution of the "cleanup hitter", as the 4th batter is at bat with 2 outs and a runner in scoring position more than any other spot in the lineup. Next is the 5-spot.

Then I put the next-best hitter at 6, and then 7 and so on down to 9.

With an AL team, if one of my 8 or 9 hitters was a basestealer, I would flop them to 8th. I would rather be stealing bases in front of my #9 hitter, who needs all the help he can get to drive in runs, then my lead-off guy who is one of my best hitters. Also, if I make the 3rd out on the bases with the #9 hitter at the plate, it is not as costly as with the leadoff guy up.

Just some thoughts...
9/7/2010 5:18 PM
bob squad
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Thanks guys.  I know the latter part of my lineup sucks, I was hoping their gloves might make up for their lack of bats.
9/7/2010 7:36 PM (edited)
jimmystick
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Posted by jtrinsey on 9/7/2010 5:19:00 PM (view original):
The way I set my lineup (influenced by a post I once read on lineup optimization... I think at Beyond the Boxscore), is:

First of all, 5 best batters are always in the top 5 spots. If they fit into the following, even better:
(1) I prefer the 1st batter to have the lowest ISO amongst my top-5 batters, or, alternatively thinking, the guy amongst your top 5 who's value is more in his OBP than in his SLG
(2) Since the 2nd spot is the spot in your lineup that comes up most frequently with a runner on and 1 or 0 outs; I prefer to have a fast guy here, to cut down on double-plays.
(3) Since the 3rd spot comes up with 2 outs more than any other position in the lineup, I put the opposite of (1) here and go with my highest ISO or guy amongst my top 5 who's value is more in his SLG than his OBP
(4) Nothing special here, just the next best hitter.
(5) The last guy.

Interestingly enough, since they do get slightly fewer at bats, most simulations seem to suggest that the 5-spot hitter should be better than the 3-spot hitter, since the 3-spot hitter is often on with 2 outs and nobody on. The 5-spot hitter comes up more with 2 outs and runners in scoring position, which means that, over the course of a season, their average at bat is slightly more important than the 3-spot hitter. I think this is also the contributing logic to the contribution of the "cleanup hitter", as the 4th batter is at bat with 2 outs and a runner in scoring position more than any other spot in the lineup. Next is the 5-spot.

Then I put the next-best hitter at 6, and then 7 and so on down to 9.

With an AL team, if one of my 8 or 9 hitters was a basestealer, I would flop them to 8th. I would rather be stealing bases in front of my #9 hitter, who needs all the help he can get to drive in runs, then my lead-off guy who is one of my best hitters. Also, if I make the 3rd out on the bases with the #9 hitter at the plate, it is not as costly as with the leadoff guy up.

Just some thoughts...
I think this is a GREAT model to follow.  You really can't go wrong I don't think.
9/8/2010 9:45 PM
jtrinsey
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Yeah, in reality it's probably not going to make a difference of more than 5 runs or so over the course of the season, but if one of those 5 wins you a game in a close division race... it's worth it. Plus, it makes me feel like I'm actually having some sort of effect on the game.
9/9/2010 1:18 PM
taz21
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That's an interesting approach.  I think I've read something similar to that some time back, but have forgotten about it.

In one of my worlds, I've been running:

LF:  93 -  8 -  43 - 63 - 73 (80/94 baserunning/speed) at the top
CF: 66 - 51 - 78 - 73 - 76 (70/93 baserunning/speed)
RF: 90 - 89 - 79 - 66 - 66 (74/75 baserunning/speed - Lefty bat even though he looks like a righty)
DH: 78 - 80 - 77 - 83 - 86 (no baserunning)
2B: 94 -  90 - 69 - 80 - 71 (great speed, poor baserunning)
1B: 49 -  80 - 74 - 87 - 58 (Switch hitter)
3B: 67 -  58 - 79 - 71 - 69 (mid 60s - 70s baserunning/speed, GG defense)
SS: 33 -  68 - 55 - 50 - 78 (low 70s baserunning/speed, GG Defense)
C:   56 -  37 - 30 - 55 - 54  (Obviously defensive oriented)
 
C2:  63 - 62 -84 - 58 -87 (pretty close defensively at Catcher to my main guy, but terrible durability, though he should start in the playoffs)     
   
Would you run that setup any different for the playoffs?  Where would you insert the 2nd catcher?  I've tried to put my top 3 base stealing threats at the top, then have some decent speed in the 7 & 8 spots.  My leadoff guy clearly isn't in my top 5 bats, but is my best basestealer and baserunner.  If he gets on 1st, its just about garunteed he's going to end up in scoring position by the time the meat of the order comes up..  Should I slid the CF up to the top spot?  I've got my basestealing set to 5.  We're at a shade below 70% (69.8%) so we're probably being a tad too agressive if you believe the 70ish to 72ish stats I've seen thrown around about successful basestealing rates and run production.  Would you bump the 3b up ahead of the 1b?  Perhaps vs righties?  How does his power compare to the 3b eye in terms of spot in the batting order?
9/9/2010 2:30 PM
jimmystick
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Posted by jtrinsey on 9/9/2010 1:18:00 PM (view original):
Yeah, in reality it's probably not going to make a difference of more than 5 runs or so over the course of the season, but if one of those 5 wins you a game in a close division race... it's worth it. Plus, it makes me feel like I'm actually having some sort of effect on the game.
My Spahn team  has had great pitching for  years, but mediocre offenses.  I'm using a model that was intended to be similar to this, but the player's are performing differently than their ratings suggest they should.  It's ok though, I'm leading the NL in doubles, HRs, SLG, OPS, and runs scored.

1) High OBP guy who just happens to having a crazy HR year, slugging .541
2) Speed and eye (two players platoon their splits here, but both have speed and eye)
3) Mediocre power, but very high OBP
4-7) All 4 batters have 90+ power and mediocre OBP
8) pitcher
9) Pretty good hitting All-Star SS who actually could hit second for me if I chose to do so.  Above average, but not great, speed and eye

This lineup has been devastating.  I could move #2 way down, and bat #3 in the 2-hole since he has very high OBP, then slide all the power hitters up one spot (3-6 instead of 4-7).  This has worked for me though, so I'm sticking with it.
9/9/2010 3:30 PM
shamu
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Posted by jtrinsey on 9/7/2010 5:19:00 PM (view original):
The way I set my lineup (influenced by a post I once read on lineup optimization... I think at Beyond the Boxscore), is:

First of all, 5 best batters are always in the top 5 spots. If they fit into the following, even better:
(1) I prefer the 1st batter to have the lowest ISO amongst my top-5 batters, or, alternatively thinking, the guy amongst your top 5 who's value is more in his OBP than in his SLG
(2) Since the 2nd spot is the spot in your lineup that comes up most frequently with a runner on and 1 or 0 outs; I prefer to have a fast guy here, to cut down on double-plays.
(3) Since the 3rd spot comes up with 2 outs more than any other position in the lineup, I put the opposite of (1) here and go with my highest ISO or guy amongst my top 5 who's value is more in his SLG than his OBP
(4) Nothing special here, just the next best hitter.
(5) The last guy.

Interestingly enough, since they do get slightly fewer at bats, most simulations seem to suggest that the 5-spot hitter should be better than the 3-spot hitter, since the 3-spot hitter is often on with 2 outs and nobody on. The 5-spot hitter comes up more with 2 outs and runners in scoring position, which means that, over the course of a season, their average at bat is slightly more important than the 3-spot hitter. I think this is also the contributing logic to the contribution of the "cleanup hitter", as the 4th batter is at bat with 2 outs and a runner in scoring position more than any other spot in the lineup. Next is the 5-spot.

Then I put the next-best hitter at 6, and then 7 and so on down to 9.

With an AL team, if one of my 8 or 9 hitters was a basestealer, I would flop them to 8th. I would rather be stealing bases in front of my #9 hitter, who needs all the help he can get to drive in runs, then my lead-off guy who is one of my best hitters. Also, if I make the 3rd out on the bases with the #9 hitter at the plate, it is not as costly as with the leadoff guy up.

Just some thoughts...
I know this might be a dumb question but what do you look at to consider a player one the your "best batters". 
9/9/2010 5:36 PM
jtrinsey
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Highest OPS
9/9/2010 8:53 PM
jimmystick
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I strictly look at ratings.  You could have a great hitter have a down season and at the same time have a medicore player have a career year.

I'd say I look at the player who is  CAPABLE of having the highest OPS as my best hitter.  There are a ton of different ways to go about this.  You could have a guy with high contact and eye lead your team in OPS, and then the next season another player with high power and splits lead your team.  Speed plays a role in SLG too.  A guy with 35 speed won't hit a ton of doubles and triples compared to a guy with similar power and 80 speed.
9/9/2010 9:26 PM
shamu
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I had a feeling the answer would'nt have been a single type answer!!!     Thx fellas

9/9/2010 9:54 PM
deanod
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After a player has a few seasons under his belts, stats >>> ratings.

OPS works, but note that OBP is worth more than SLG.
9/9/2010 10:05 PM
a_ersberg
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"]I strictly look at ratings."

Nooooooo sir.  I can show you an entire franchise of players with guys that cant hit worth a damn, with ratings that you'd think would produce significantly better stats.  
9/9/2010 10:30 PM
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