Anybody else feel like they shoot about 25% on the front end of 1/1 FTA's?  I should go through the pbp's and do the math, but I'm serious when I say that I miss WAYYY more front ends, esp. when it's on the 7th or 8th fouls.  And this is for all my guys, even the good free throw shooters.  Before I make the effort to figure out the FT% on 1/1's, though, I just wanted to see if anybody else feels like this as well or thinks I'm just data mining here or remembering the misses much more so than the makes.  But, I think the numbers will bear out that I shoot well under 50% on front-ends, and this is for all my teams, despite them shooting the "standard" 65-70% overall from the line.

It makes me wonder if it's a programmed logic thing, b/c this seems to be really high variance from my team average if this is the case.  However, when I'm in the bonus and it's a shooting foul, I notice I shoot considerably better than a simple 1/1 FTA.  I'll check that data as well when I do get around to this.

+1!     

jdno, are you talking about foul shots created by non-shooting fouls 7-9 of the half? Or are you also including those 2-shots opps from 10 fouls and more? Interesting theory, and I'm going to study it in my PBP this season.

No - I haven't found this to be true on my teams

yes skinner, non-shooting fouls 7-9

I don't think so either.  SUPER small sample size + painful when you in a close game a miss the front end, so you remember it more.

I checked my team's 10 non-conf games in Crum.  For 1+1 situations, my guys hit the first FT  18 out of 25 times (72%).  For the season, the team is hitting 70.6%

Fo sho

so using the same Crum data as alblack, my first 10 NC games we shot 12/21 on the front end of 1+1 that weren't shooting fouls for fouls 7-9.  My opponenets shot 15/23.  For my next 12 conf. games, we shot 12/24, opponents 15/24.  Overall, we are 24/45 (53%), opponents 30/47 (64%).  On all other foul shots for the season, we're shooting 71% (basically subtract out the 24/45 from my season to date totals).  My opponents are shooting 67% for the season excluding these front-ends.  We're shooting better than I thought (mind playing tricks on me, selective remembering, etc.), but noticeably worse than the rest of the attempts.  I'll try ot track the stats for my Rupp teams which just got underway and update the thread.  Hard to draw a conclusion so far, but maybe I've gotten pretty unlucky thus far and the small numbers are at work here.  Given that my opponents are shooting within close range of their season totals, I'll give the benefit of the doubt to the SIM engine (gulp)....for now.  I will say that it's not just this season that it feels like I keep getting jobbed, but this is the only data I have at my fingertips.

One other thing to consider -- players are probably a little more tired by the time you're in the bonus, so you might expect them to shoot a bit worse.

It happened in Allen all season and to me more than a few times.

Plus you all are forgetting in samples of 45 FTs, who is taking them matters a TON.