FT shooting % variance Topic

How far from the "norm" should a team be drifting in FT shooting % in any one game?  In my game last night, the team I played was 28 of 33 from the line, or 84.8%.  On the season in 6 games before that they were 80 for 124, or 64.5%.  What the??
11/10/2010 1:34 PM
You're joking, right?
11/10/2010 1:48 PM
assume the average % is the average after the last event. then, you are looking at .69% ft shooting.

out of 33 chances, you would then expect 22.7 lets say 23 made free throws. the probability of this event is 33 choose 23 * .69^23 * .31 ^ 10 ~= 15%

out of 33 chances, the probability of getting 28 made free throws is 33 choose 28 * .69^28 * .31^5 ~= 2%

so, no offense or anything, but you are complaining about an event that is only 8 times less likely than the most likely possible even in the scenario you described. given that there are many such categories (like ft%) in a single game, i would expect to see something like this literally every game. and with what, 10 thousand games a day, i would expect to see something like this literally over 10 thousand times a day.
11/10/2010 2:05 PM
Thanks for the responses.  I just had no idea how close to norms the engine tended to stick.  That just stood out a bit as being a bit odd that they made so many of them.  Not a complaint at all, more a curiosity.
11/10/2010 2:42 PM
FT shooting % variance Topic

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