My guess is that the Sim looks at time left on the clock and estimates number of possessions remaining. I would need 5 possessions to make up the scoring gap, and given that my opponent would have possessions, 5x2 = 10. That looks like 35 x 10 = 350 seconds, or 5 minutes 49 seconds. The Sim said "there's not that much time left." However, the Sim moved me to uptempo, which greatly reduces the time of my possessions. Let's say my average possession time is 10 seconds.
5 x 10 = 50, or less than a minute. Even if my opponents' possessions were 35 seconds long each, that would take us to 3 minutes 45 seconds.... still not enough time. However, I still had fouls to give to shorten possessions and there is a good chance of a turnover as well. The opponent wasn't playing hold-the-ball, either, he was playing slowdown. That gets us down to much less than 3 minutes 29 seconds. Given that I was now at +2 for 3-pointers, that would greatly increase the probability of cutting the lead.
Bottom line: Like real life, no way you yank your starters with 3:29 left to play and down 13 with plenty of fouls and TOs to give.
12/12/2010 9:49 PM (edited)