It's Rupp playoffs and I was completely surprised by the simai team I'm facing in the sweet 16. The team's starting 5 isn't bad but it's team avg is 36 ath, 38 spd running fcp. I thought this was gonna be a cakewalk and easily get my team into the elite 8. Guess not. Louis Jones completely sucked in the last 1:15 of regulation, that's a given. I switched my normal SF to SG and SF to SG so they would guard Cornell's 1-2 guard combo, but what else could I have done to win this game?

http://whatifsports.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=6511268

Well, first, its team average is brought down by two walkons.  Minus those its 42 ath and 43 speed  Which is not awesome, but better.  And once they are removed entirely, that team is rated about 545 - and they were only playing those top ten, where you were playing your top twelve.  YOu also had a speed disadvantage in the starting lineup at guard.  He also had a stamina advantage, which in a press is important.

a_b has a good point -- remove the walk-ons and there's really not much of a talent discrepancy. The sp advantage the other team had at guard is also valid. And he had an iq advantage as well -- three A+, three A and an A- in both of his sets, while in m2m you had two A+, two A- and the rest B+ or below.

What jumps out at at me is that sims tend to shoot a good # of 3's, and you played a minus defense. Granted, it was a -1, but I basically will never play a minus defense against a sim. I have little doubt that a +1 wins you that game. Considering that you go 12 deep to his 10 and he plays press, which is more tiring and fouls more, I also would've gone uptempo to (a) try to fatigue him more and (b) try to get him in foul trouble. I also think that your bench is better than his, and that would've forced his reserves to play more.

I do think you win this game more often than not, but on paper you don't blow him away, and imho there are a few things you could've done to help maximize your odds of winning.

I was surprised that he shot that many 3s. Coming into the game, less than 1/3 of his shots were 3s so I went -1. Guess I should have gone 0 or +1.