Experienced Coach with a lot to learn... Topic

tmiglio
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Everyone...  I wanted to throw this out to get some feedback and thoughts on game-planning.  

I have never considered myself a good game planner, so this year when I got off to a strong start, in out of conference play, I decided to leave everything alone.  I didnt touch the defense that I run, or the speed of the offense.  I even let my distribution for the shots exactly the same.  

I ended up going 23-1 out of the gate, playing some strong teams.  I think my SOS was around 40 at the time.  

My question to all of the experienced coaches out there...  how did I pull this off?  My thought is that game planning was to help increase your odds of success.

You'll notice that I went 2-4 at the end of the season when I started tinkering with my lineup.  (don't ask)  Maybe its the way that I personally game plan which is the problem. : ) however, I would be interested in your thoughts.

I only had one senior, and just one player who ended the season at over at 700 rating.  

Thanks in advance for everyone's two cents.

--Migs

12/30/2010 12:59 PM
brip87
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I find that if it gets set correctly to begin with i leave it alone.  I almspt always set my team and let it ride if the results are good.  Alot of guys change game to game I only change def positioning.  I leave my my distro relatively alone.
12/30/2010 1:25 PM
ethan66
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The other variables that enter into the equation would be your players' LP/PER, their DEF, and ATH/SPD.  If they improved over the summer from one season to the next (as normal), it's possible that running the same sets and distro will have better results simply due to player improvement.


12/31/2010 1:12 PM
teamrc
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Migs, I looked at your team and your season.... The better question is how you won all those games to get to 23-1, not how you ended the season losing 4 games to what were pretty good teams. Your team was young and "should" have a very good season next year as well. Don't be surprised if your overall record isn't as good as this one,,, but you go 2-3 rounds deep into the NT. You had a great season... one that was probably better than you may have deserved early.... and then the coin began to come up tails towards the end while you were pickin heads.

Don't try to outquess the RNG... just be glad you went 23-1 to begin the season... and don't dwell on the 2-4.... 99% chance your results woulda been the same had you not "tinkered" at all..... unless you did something really crazy.... and you didn't start any frosh etc... so it appears your "changes" really may not have been the problem at all.
End of season everyone starts paying attention.... and the wins get harder to come by.
12/31/2010 1:30 PM
tkimble
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I had the same experience a couple of seasons ago.  I realized I must suck at doing day to day changes so I let it be.  Some guys are good at it, I'm not, so I find what I think the ideal system will be, and I leave it alone.
12/31/2010 1:31 PM
oldresorter
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t-mig - since you asked, I would wonder what you consider 'gameplanning' to be.  I only ask because to me, one of the most significant aspects of gameplanning is the changing of defensive levels based on the opponent.  It appears, you kept that constant in all 30 games.

What did you change in those games and why did you think it failed you? 

I looked, and felt the biggest reason for the losses at the end was a 2-3 zone set to -2 is vulnerable to the 3pt shot, and you played games against coaches who exploited that ... but for the season, you also gave up a fairly high % from 3pt land, and would have played better if you had gameplanned def level, or even set and forget it to -1 or even zero or +1.
12/31/2010 1:58 PM
tmiglio
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teamrc...   I agree that I was surprised to get to 23-1 .  I definitely had a young team, so I think that I played above my head (great observation)  But since I was winning, I decided not to mess with things.

oldresorter...   you're also correct that I only changed the pace of my offense and the distribution.  I didnt mess with the defense as I probably should have.  Question for you on this...  As you look to gameplan your defense against your opponent, are there a couple things that you focus on the most to provide clues as how to set up your D?  If so, are there things that you prioritize over others?

Thanks again for the guidance.

--Migs
12/31/2010 3:56 PM
oldresorter
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Posted by tmiglio on 12/31/2010 3:56:00 PM (view original):
teamrc...   I agree that I was surprised to get to 23-1 .  I definitely had a young team, so I think that I played above my head (great observation)  But since I was winning, I decided not to mess with things.

oldresorter...   you're also correct that I only changed the pace of my offense and the distribution.  I didnt mess with the defense as I probably should have.  Question for you on this...  As you look to gameplan your defense against your opponent, are there a couple things that you focus on the most to provide clues as how to set up your D?  If so, are there things that you prioritize over others?

Thanks again for the guidance.

--Migs
migs -

I often gameplan in seconds, when I do at all, I tend to look at tot fg% - 3pt% and 3pt att / total FG att, the larger the first number the more I need to play minus, the larger the second number, the more I need to play plus.  I also may quickly glance at foul's if it looks like trouble I play more minus, rebounds same as foul's, and team stamina -vs bad stamina teams I might play uptempo, especially in the tournament.

Hopefully, after doing so, I resist all temptations to change things, and stick with what I have been doing.  I often prefer to see when I win or lose if I think the adjustment would have helped, usually I cannot justify the change in hindsight, hence my leanings toward set and forget.   But, I also in much more detail, study my own team's numbers historically, and often make adjustments irregardless of the opponent based on what I see, often with set and forget in mind.

Part of your issue, is 2-3 zone is biased toward giving up 3pt% in the first place in my opinion, hence regardless of the opponent, you needed to play more plus than -2.  I really don't mess with disto for an opponent very much, I tend to like the guys I lett shoot more than the guys I don't, and I see very little reason to change that.  In terms of tempo, it is really tricky, because I do feel speeding up has a detrimental effect on a team not capable of playing faster, irregardless of the opponents stamina, yet it can work.  Slowing down can help an inferior team have a shot in a game, but also has some consequences.


12/31/2010 4:33 PM
mccabemi
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Since changes were made to the game to limit what were perceived as odd results- game planning no longer matters.  The only thing you can do to mess it up is to play anything other than -1, 0 or +1.   When my UCR team went SIM last year it went to the NC title game... and it wasn't luck.   27-3 or something like that.  Run the season again, and the same thing will happen.  The game has serious issues if top teams can't out game plan a sim.   I'm so bored it's silly.


 Sure- no one complains about the +5 or -5 anymore.  But if you can't pull the lever on a slot and win every once in awhile then no one is going to pull the lever.

Upsets based on strategy are great for the game.  Upsets based on random variability maybe not quite as much.  Right now, there is neither.

I haven't spent more than 2 minutes on game planning in 3 seasons.


12/31/2010 5:08 PM
redbeard385
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Posted by oldresorter on 12/31/2010 4:33:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tmiglio on 12/31/2010 3:56:00 PM (view original):
teamrc...   I agree that I was surprised to get to 23-1 .  I definitely had a young team, so I think that I played above my head (great observation)  But since I was winning, I decided not to mess with things.

oldresorter...   you're also correct that I only changed the pace of my offense and the distribution.  I didnt mess with the defense as I probably should have.  Question for you on this...  As you look to gameplan your defense against your opponent, are there a couple things that you focus on the most to provide clues as how to set up your D?  If so, are there things that you prioritize over others?

Thanks again for the guidance.

--Migs
migs -

I often gameplan in seconds, when I do at all, I tend to look at tot fg% - 3pt% and 3pt att / total FG att, the larger the first number the more I need to play minus, the larger the second number, the more I need to play plus.  I also may quickly glance at foul's if it looks like trouble I play more minus, rebounds same as foul's, and team stamina -vs bad stamina teams I might play uptempo, especially in the tournament.

Hopefully, after doing so, I resist all temptations to change things, and stick with what I have been doing.  I often prefer to see when I win or lose if I think the adjustment would have helped, usually I cannot justify the change in hindsight, hence my leanings toward set and forget.   But, I also in much more detail, study my own team's numbers historically, and often make adjustments irregardless of the opponent based on what I see, often with set and forget in mind.

Part of your issue, is 2-3 zone is biased toward giving up 3pt% in the first place in my opinion, hence regardless of the opponent, you needed to play more plus than -2.  I really don't mess with disto for an opponent very much, I tend to like the guys I lett shoot more than the guys I don't, and I see very little reason to change that.  In terms of tempo, it is really tricky, because I do feel speeding up has a detrimental effect on a team not capable of playing faster, irregardless of the opponents stamina, yet it can work.  Slowing down can help an inferior team have a shot in a game, but also has some consequences.


OR -

When you look at the fg%-3pt% and 3pt att/fg att, is there a baseline number that you consider "large?"  I am just starting to track this, but since I haven't many games as a sample, its hard to put the numbers in context.
Thanks.
1/8/2011 8:38 AM
oldresorter
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@redbeard - in the spirit of teaching you to fish, vs giving you fish dinner, take a look at those numbers for you conference, what are the ratio's for the good teams, what are the ratio's for the bad teams,

then take a look at the entire division, look at the RPI screen, which gives you all 300 some teams, 

randomly look at 1 thru 10, then maybe 50-60, than 110-120, then maybe 200-210 and 300-310. 

Find out what the numbers look like for good and bad teams,  If you are really ambitious, look at what off and def teams run - this will affect things more than you might think. 

This data is only really relevant later in the season, after game 26 is an ideal time, as everyone is sort of on an equal basis at that point.

hope that helps
1/8/2011 11:25 AM
redbeard385
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OR

Will do - thanks.
1/8/2011 12:26 PM
girt25
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Posted by mccabemi on 12/31/2010 5:08:00 PM (view original):
Since changes were made to the game to limit what were perceived as odd results- game planning no longer matters.  The only thing you can do to mess it up is to play anything other than -1, 0 or +1.   When my UCR team went SIM last year it went to the NC title game... and it wasn't luck.   27-3 or something like that.  Run the season again, and the same thing will happen.  The game has serious issues if top teams can't out game plan a sim.   I'm so bored it's silly.


 Sure- no one complains about the +5 or -5 anymore.  But if you can't pull the lever on a slot and win every once in awhile then no one is going to pull the lever.

Upsets based on strategy are great for the game.  Upsets based on random variability maybe not quite as much.  Right now, there is neither.

I haven't spent more than 2 minutes on game planning in 3 seasons.


mcc, I totally disagree. I still think game-planning is very important, and every night I see games that are won and lost based on good or bad gameplans.
1/8/2011 12:33 PM
sol_phenom3
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I went something like 30-2 with my one DIII team without ever adjusting my gameplan.  After recruiting was done, I had gone on a hiatus from HD.  When I came back my team was about 16 games into the season at 16-0.  I left the gameplan alone and only lost one game in conference play to a solid opponent.  After that I won the conference tournament and made the Sweet Sixteen before faltering (I had a solid SOS as well, but my schedule still wasn't that tough, so I wasn't surprised when I got knocked out that early).  

For whatever reason it seems like leaving your gameplan alone can have a significant impact...

But I still find adjusting it to be more effective.  I took over a young North Carolina Central team in Smith and inherited a wealth of talent, but there was only one senior on the team, and I tinkered with the gameplan throughout the season.  Continuing to adjust for essentially every game, I took my youth-filled team to the final four before finally falling in a close match-up.  

I really think gameplanning is important, but with a VERY good team you can get away with not gameplanning often, or with a team that is super effective in one area that you really don't need to adjust your gameplan to acquire a rebounding advantage because you have the best rebounders at DIII (or whatever level you're at), then that could probably work out.

But I still recommend gameplanning.  It's the only way to ensure that your time will have a solid shot against your opponent.  If you leave your gameplan alone you might see your team beat one good team in a tight match-up, but then fall by twenty-five in your next match-up against a team of similar or even lesser caliber.
1/8/2011 3:10 PM
Experienced Coach with a lot to learn... Topic
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