Sabre guys, help me out Topic

So after several seasons in pitcher friendly parks I will be trying an extreme hitter's park soon. I'm trying to evaluate to what degree I should prioritize defense. In Tacoma, I have generally been working under the assumption that defense is independent of park effects, therefore, the runs prevented through superior defense are of more value - because they represent a greater percentage of runs scored (or potentially would have scored) - than in a neutral or hitter's park.

However, as I review Tango's Run Expectancy states, I notice something I hadn't noticed before. The positive value of a plus play (or negative value of an error/poor play) is amplified when there are runners on base. Seems obvious as I type it now, of course. So now I am trying to figure out how to adjust the relative value of a defensive play relative to park factor - or pitching staff for that matter.

Has anyone tried to quantify this or any advice to point me in the right direction?
1/15/2011 6:32 PM
What park are you thinking of moving to?  How does your pitching staff stack up as far as average velocity and groundball rate go?  Those are going to be big complimentary factors in how much you'll need to bolster your defense.  If you have high flyball tendency and a high staff velocity, you can probably get away with more.  Higher conact guys (high GB%, low velocity) will need some pretty serious backup.
1/15/2011 7:28 PM

I want to tackle Santa Fe just to see how it plays and what it takes to succeed there. It'll be a new team so I'm getting to know the talent. I'm already planning on looking for pitchers that a) avoid bats thru K's and/or b) keep the ball on the ground. But more broadly than that, I sense that there has to be a way to take a + play, and assume that in a neutral park, with a league average pitching staff, it prevents x runs. (I suspect about 2/3rds of a run) Then modify that, for example . . .

With a superior pitching staff (and/or pitchers park) there are fewer baserunners, therefore a greater likelihood of + plays occuring when they are worth less, maybe .5 runs. Conversely, when there are more baserunners due to park or inferior pitching, + plays will occur more frequently when there are runners on base, therefore will be worth more, perhaps as much as a full run. Once I can get a rough handle on the modifier it, will help me compare whether the glove man with a below average bat will earn more in runs prevented than he sacrifices in runs scored.

1/15/2011 7:43 PM
I play in Santa Fe, which is probably the reason I have such a sucky pitching staff.
1/17/2011 4:46 PM
dwoolery, while the run value of a +/- play increases in a hitters' park, the win expectancy doesn't necessarily increase, since every run is worth less in a hitters' park.  I have tried analyzing this many different ways, and I haven't seen conclusive evidence regarding the importance of defense in a hitter vs. a pitcher park.
1/19/2011 7:04 PM
Thanks kahrtmen, i hadn't considered the translation to WE.
1/19/2011 8:12 PM
Sabre guys, help me out Topic

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