I drafted this guy -- Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Edgard Cedeno -- last season.  My draft and advance scouting budgets at the time were $14 million and he projected to have power in the mid-90s.  Now, with an advance scouting budget of $10 million he projects to only 78 power, one point better than his current rating. 

My question is, what would be a reasonable expectation for his true potential?  High 80s?  Mid 80s?  Is there a chance he might actually reach the 90s?

Thanks.

The higher budget would give you more accurate projections than a lower budget.  So I'd trust what you was $14m more than what you're seeing with $10m.

His low makeup of 47 would be a cause of concern for him to actually reach whatever his true projections might be.

Posted by tecwrg on 1/20/2011 9:20:00 AM (view original):
The higher budget would give you more accurate projections than a lower budget.  So I'd trust what you was $14m more than what you're seeing with $10m.

His low makeup of 47 would be a cause of concern for him to actually reach whatever his true projections might be.

Not for Training related stats, if your budget is high enough, he shouldnt have a problem.

He is 21 already though, so I doubt that guy is making it to mid 90s power.  Mid-high 80s is the highest he will get IMO.

Posted by Crump123 on 1/20/2011 9:22:00 AM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 1/20/2011 9:20:00 AM (view original):
The higher budget would give you more accurate projections than a lower budget.  So I'd trust what you was $14m more than what you're seeing with $10m.

His low makeup of 47 would be a cause of concern for him to actually reach whatever his true projections might be.

Not for Training related stats, if your budget is high enough, he shouldnt have a problem.

My understanding is that makeup affects both physical and skill related ratings.

Ok, this is a question I have had forever and have never got a clear answer.  Since the 14m budget put him at 90s and the 10 adv budget put him in the high 70's I would think the 14 was closer.  But, can you go over what you have as a projection?  So if the guy is a 78 right now, his adv says he projects to a 79 is it possible to go over the projection?

Of course, because projections are just estimates of what his rating ceilings are.  Estimates can be off either on the low side or the high side.  The higher the scouting budget, the less variance you should have from the player's true projections.

If you have a young prospect, and a low AS budget, sometimes you'll see players at their projected ceiling for certain ratings.

A young and still developing player will have his projections rise with his current rating, just like any other prospect.

I understand that training budgets and makeup will be a factor, and also that a higher scouting budget should give me a more accurate answer.  But in his case the projections dropped nearly 20 points with only a $4 million difference in my scouting budgets.  I cannot remember what the accuracy is for a given budget (as in, how many points over or under a guy's actual potential your projections might be off), but it seems to me that nearly 20 points for a $4 million difference in budget is unlikely.  Of course the mid-90s projection was high (big surprise), but how wrong could it have been to account for such a huge difference? 

What, then, might be a reasonable expectation for a meeting point between the two?  Is it possible to use two projections with different budgets and sort of triangulate an accurate'ish projection? 

This feels hopelessly imprecise.  Let me try again:

Is there a standard +/- to apply to projections given a certain budget?  As in, with a $14 million budget your projections might be off by +/- 6 points?  And with a $10 million budget the projections might be off by +/- 10 points? 

It just seems like such a huge difference, and I don't know what to expect from him.  I suppose the simple answer is, wait and see.  Maybe that is the best advice, just give him a couple years and see how he develops.  I am just a bit antsy because I have never had an advance scouting budget this slim, and I am feeling completely in the dark.

I understand that training budgets and makeup will be a factor, and also that a higher scouting budget should give me a more accurate answer.  But in his case the projections dropped nearly 20 points with only a $4 million difference in my scouting budgets.  I cannot remember what the accuracy is for a given budget (as in, how many points over or under a guy's actual potential your projections might be off), but it seems to me that nearly 20 points for a $4 million difference in budget is unlikely.  Of course the mid-90s projection was high (big surprise), but how wrong could it have been to account for such a huge difference? 

What, then, might be a reasonable expectation for a meeting point between the two?  Is it possible to use two projections with different budgets and sort of triangulate an accurate'ish projection? 

This feels hopelessly imprecise.  Let me try again:

Is there a standard +/- to apply to projections given a certain budget?  As in, with a $14 million budget your projections might be off by +/- 6 points?  And with a $10 million budget the projections might be off by +/- 10 points? 

It just seems like such a huge difference, and I don't know what to expect from him.  I suppose the simple answer is, wait and see.  Maybe that is the best advice, just give him a couple years and see how he develops.  I am just a bit antsy because I have never had an advance scouting budget this slim, and I am feeling completely in the dark.