I sometimes get the feeling the software is either designed to:

a) guarantee a certain amount of injuries per year; or
b) increase the odds of injury over the last two weeks of the season

I'm not looking for a debate of what's realistic or not overall in comparison with MLB, but I am trying to understand HBD game play better.  This regular season in one world I had nine injuries.  Most were between 1-2 calendar weeks apart.  However, four were on the last four consecutive days of the season (health for three of them was 98, 94, 87).  The odds of that naturally occurring seem unlikely to me, which is why I think one of the two hypotheses above may be true.  Any other observations would be appreciated. 

Injuries always seem worse than they happen to you.

I don't believe in the injury bomb.  My experience is that injuries are fairly evenly and randomly spread out.  It just seems like it's "out to get you" when you get a major injury to a key player as the playoffs are approaching.

I believe in the injury bomb.   It doesn't happen every season but, every now and then, I'll get 2-4 BL injuries after the minor league season is over.   Not sure if I'm filling a "quota" or not.   But I do know it happens.

I agree with tec on this one.

It just seems weird to get nearly 50% of a season's injuries in the last four days of the season.

I think I believe in the injury sniper, it seems that it's always the hardest guy to replace at the most critical time that goes down.

Posted by tecwrg on 1/25/2011 8:44:00 PM (view original):
Injuries always seem worse than they happen to you.

I don't believe in the injury bomb.  My experience is that injuries are fairly evenly and randomly spread out.  It just seems like it's "out to get you" when you get a major injury to a key player as the playoffs are approaching.

I agree 95%+ with this, but think there is one minor exception.  I have had several pitchers come back from an arm injury (usually minor, occasionally major) and immediately, first two appearances after returning, suffer a severe injury in the same joint.  Am I the only one who thinks there's a somewhat higher risk of injury in the same location shortly after another injury ?

I've seen that as well.  I have a guy who suffered a season ending injury in S12 that rolled over into the beginning of S13.  After he came off the DL, 10 real-life days later he suffered another season ending injury for the exact same thing.

Season	Franchise	Level	Injury	Stint	Placement Date	Activation Date
11	Apollos	ML	Shoulder, tendinitis	15-Day	12/29 PM2	1/10 PM
12	Apollos	ML	Shoulder, labrum tear	60-Day	5/7 AM	--
13	Apollos	ML	Shoulder, labrum tear	15-Day	6/3 AM	6/13 AM
13	Apollos	ML	Shoulder, labrum tear	60-Day	6/23 PM	--

But to be completely honest, this is the only time I can remember seeing it happen to one of my players.  So I'm not ruling out coincidence.

Here's a theory I'm working on(and I shared it with opie before this thread):

I run pretty similar training/medical(which may or may not have anything to do with it) and I largely avoid the 30 health players.   I usually get between 15-20 injuries that require a trip to the DL.   I run my fatigue/rest the same in all worlds.   I rest my BL players once my playoff status is determined because I used to get an "injury bomb" every season that would take out 2-4 BL players for a few days or a few weeks.   I don't know if my injury "quota" hadn't been filled but the minor league season was over so, if there is such a thing, it had to be BL players. 

Geez, you're making this sound like a conspiracy theory.

It makes absolutely no sense at all that there is a pre-determined "quota" of injuries that you must be hit with throughout the course of a season.

Where is DIAH's "Dumb Ideas" thread?

It's really no conspiracy.  We know this game works off ratings and programs.    I don't think it's insane to believe (X+Y)/Z=15-20.   Unless, of course, you believe injuries are just simple random results.   If that's case, I assume you ignore health, fatigue and budget 0 for medical.

I do believe that injuries are random results.  Health, fatigue, training and medical all affect probabilities of the random result being an injury of a certain duration.

For example: a player has a health rating of 85.  Fatigue is at 100%, training and medical is at $20m.  Maybe he's given an "injury probability" of 90%.  Meaning, when the engine randomly generates a "check for injury event" for that player, it will generate a random number between 1-100.  If it's 90 or above, the guy suffers an injury.

Same situation, but fatigue is at 93%.  Training and medical is at $10m.  The guys "injury probability" now is lower.  Maybe now it's 70%.  So he's more suceptible to injury.

I'm not saying this is exactly how it works.  But conceptually, it may be something along those lines.

Meaning: it's random.  There's no counter being maintained for each team that says "Charleston needs to incur 28 injuries this season", thus setting a quota that must be met.  That's just dumb.

I don't see how your scenario is any different than mine(although we may have different experiences).

My scenario:  Charleston has 20 training(X), 16 medical(Y) and an average health rating of 78(Z).   They will incur sixteen 7+ days of injuries.    How those 16 are determined may run along the lines of what you're saying.

It just seems odd to me, since I run all my teams roughly the same with regards to training, medical, health, fatigue and rest, that I always get roughly the same amount of injuries.  Maybe everyone get 15-20 injuries per season.   Maybe not.   Don't know.  That's why I said "Here's a theory I'm working on" instead of "This is what I believe".