College or HS Scouting Topic

bigal888
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Which one do people feel is better?  It seems that most worlds have an even number of people that go all out in one direction or the other but not both.  What's the thinking for either way?

I know I think of HS scouting as more valuable because I feel like I can get guys into the majors at a younger age.  College guys seem to develop at a less "generous" rate - even though I have no proof of this and really don't want to go look.
3/23/2011 6:41 PM
MikeT23
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Try to be contrarian to the world.    It only works once as owners change so you're "locked" in if you're a 20/0 guy. 

My thinking is if 2/3 of the world like HS scouting, I want college scouting.   And vice versa.   But, like I said, if you're going extreme, you're stuck once you get there unless you're willing to work the switch over several seasons.
3/23/2011 6:54 PM
tecwrg
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My opinion: the further away from projections a player is, the more opportunities there will be for something to go wrong in the player's development.  With that in mind, HS players have more risk associated with them, despite the fact that my casual observation seems to be that they often appear to have more upside than college players in terms of projections.

I used to go with equal budgets for both HS and college, but when one of my teams saw it's player payroll starting to rise, I needed to cut budgets to fund payroll.  I decided to cut down on college and stay with high school, with the thought that with a major league team that was just coming into it's prime, I could afford to take more time developing my prospects.  I've come to regret that decision, and wish I had stayed with the college kids.

3/23/2011 6:59 PM
jonas1102
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I like high school because you draft a guy at 18, he's in the majors by 23, that gives you 4 pre-arb/arb years and a 5 year deal puts him at 32.
With college, you get a guy who is 23, not in the majors until 26-27, then by the time his six years are up he's already 32.
After 32 is where you start seeing decreases usually, so you can control the HS guy longer without the downside at the end of a contract.

But you also usually only get 175 to 250 prospects on your amatuer draft list.  I've never done all college, but I assume you get more.  And you don't get the guys who have their heart set on going to college.
3/23/2011 8:10 PM
new
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Many users state there are more college players in the draft than HS.  I tend to agree.  But, HS player's development tends to be a little more predictable. 
3/24/2011 8:09 AM
kcden
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With my 20/0 College teams, I see 500 prospects, every year.  Usually 4-8 are HS prospects with very inaccurate ratings.
With my 0/20 HS team, I generally see 200-270 prospects a year, including a few college prospects... I also do not see all HS prospects, which is a bit frustrating since I see so few to begin with.
I agree with Mike's point of being contrarian to how the world generally scouts.
3/24/2011 10:03 AM
tecwrg
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Posted by jonas1102 on 3/23/2011 8:10:00 PM (view original):
I like high school because you draft a guy at 18, he's in the majors by 23, that gives you 4 pre-arb/arb years and a 5 year deal puts him at 32.
With college, you get a guy who is 23, not in the majors until 26-27, then by the time his six years are up he's already 32.
After 32 is where you start seeing decreases usually, so you can control the HS guy longer without the downside at the end of a contract.

But you also usually only get 175 to 250 prospects on your amatuer draft list.  I've never done all college, but I assume you get more.  And you don't get the guys who have their heart set on going to college.
"I've never done all college, but I assume you get more.  And you don't get the guys who have their heart set on going to college."

But you do get the ones who are considering a career in pro football/basketball/hockey.  I'm guessing at the same rate.
3/24/2011 10:07 AM
jtrinsey
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With high school guys, you get 20 year olds in their third year who still are far away from their projections but other owners will overvalue because they look like they might hit them. So if you're into trade rape, there's that.
3/24/2011 11:53 AM
dedelman
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Posted by jonas1102 on 3/23/2011 8:10:00 PM (view original):
I like high school because you draft a guy at 18, he's in the majors by 23, that gives you 4 pre-arb/arb years and a 5 year deal puts him at 32.
With college, you get a guy who is 23, not in the majors until 26-27, then by the time his six years are up he's already 32.
After 32 is where you start seeing decreases usually, so you can control the HS guy longer without the downside at the end of a contract.

But you also usually only get 175 to 250 prospects on your amatuer draft list.  I've never done all college, but I assume you get more.  And you don't get the guys who have their heart set on going to college.
I have one of each (actually 2 all COL, one all HS).  College guys are on average way, way more signable, and in my mind that offsets the 11 year control window issue and then some (especially since lots of the "college" players are JuCo and are 19 or 20).  But the cost of switching is high enough that I stay all HS in the world where I inherited that set-up.

As for being contrarian to the world-- that's probably the most important factor if you're drafting 12th-25th or so.  If you're in the top 10 you should be trying to run your weaker side budget up; the cost of randomly missing the last stud player is too high.  On the other hand, in all worlds I'm in, if you're drafting after 25th there is enough total budget ahead of you in both HS and COL to more or less even out the quality by your turn.
3/24/2011 12:25 PM
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