When is a sample size no longer too small? Topic

taz21
Posts: 470 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 93
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http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=619948

So the guy above as a serious MVP canidate 2 seasons ago.  Sure fire hall of famer, approaching 700 homers. .300 career hitter as well with a great eye.  Last year was a struggle the entire season, at least realitively, posting a sub .800 ops.  This season has been even worse so far to the tune of a .623 OPS (though this season is still very early, 40ish games in or so)  At what point do you turn the page?  Sure his power has been sapped a bit thru age, but its still a very solid 80.  His durability has dropped pretty good, but that shouldn't affect hitting, at least not while he's 100 rested, should it?  He can't play spot duty in LF like he used to, but that won't hurt him at the plate.  At what point do you give up on a guy?  Or do you keep hoping he's going to eventually return to his ratings.
3/24/2011 3:53 PM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
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87 1 47 1 189
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This guy is a beast:
80 94 80 72 90

This guy is just above average:
77 80 77 70 89


3/24/2011 3:58 PM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
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87 1 47 1 189
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FWIW, last season was a pretty dramatic statistical drop-off.   I'd expect him to still be a bit better than last seasons numbers.  But your world may be tough on hitters.
3/24/2011 4:00 PM
iain
Posts: 1864 (0)
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35 1 1 18 1 279
Prospect
The price tag is a bit steep, but he should still be productive as a part-time player.

If you're wondering about his MO, well... depends what your other options are for 1B, and how badly you need the cash.
3/24/2011 4:04 PM
taz21
Posts: 470 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 93
Prospect

I'm not expecting him to be the 1.000+ OPS beast he was during his prime. But I think, I think he could be/should be a .800+ OPS bat.  am I wrong in that thinking?

the cash is a mute point.  Its the last year of his deal he signed w/ his previous team.  Its too late in the season to make significan't good use of the money I'd save by moving him.  I'd still like to hold on to him next year (if he's willing to resign, right now he wants to wait until next season) as a part time player.  Of course if he's only going to get me a sub .750 OPS, I'm sure I can find cheaper, younger versions on the FA market next season.

My thought was to eventually bring up: http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=2849656 after time has past for the extra cheap season (he's got 76 days in the majors the last 2 seasons filling in during injuries).  If Hackman was back next year, seems like a good platoon situation as Perry won't be anything too exciting vs lefties.

3/24/2011 4:20 PM
iain
Posts: 1864 (0)
Hall of Famer
35 1 1 18 1 279
Prospect
I'd be comfortable with those two guys splitting time at 1B, assuming you can get Hackman back at a more reasonable salary, but it depends how much you need him.  I'd think they'll be nice in the 6 hole, or maybe even the 5... but if you're expecting "typical" 3-4 hitter production, I think that ship has sailed.
3/24/2011 4:50 PM
iain
Posts: 1864 (0)
Hall of Famer
35 1 1 18 1 279
Prospect
Of course, I tend towards pitching and D when building my teams, so others may tell you that's not enough hitting from a 1B.
3/24/2011 4:52 PM
boogerlips
Posts: 3731 (0)
Hall of Famer
205 45
Hall of Famer
His OBP shouldn't be much lower than his career norms, so expect it to come up.
3/25/2011 1:51 AM
When is a sample size no longer too small? Topic
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