I just took over this team, and I'm a newbie at arbitration.  I only have two that are in their 3rd arb, so I'll just go to arbitration with the others until i know what i'm doing.  One of the 3rd arb players in a 30+ year old  light hitting catcher, so I definitely won't be signing him to a long term deal.  

 Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Davey Sierra

However this guy has me confused on what to do. Not only is he just 25, but he's also injured for the next 87 days.  I have an All-Star closer on my payroll through this current season, but he's declining.  My problem is that the team I took over hasn't won more than 60+ games in a while, so I'm on a long term rebuilding project.   

Should I just go to arbitration with this guy?  Seems like the smart think to do with this injury, but he's pretty young, so I you would think he'd bounce back just fine.  Will I regret not signing him now?   He's demanding a 5 yr, 5.5M/year deal.

Any suggestions to help out the newbie?   

Legit major league pitcher, but just average or a touch worse.  This sort of pitcher is available in all of my worlds for $2-3M in FA; if he wants more than that just release him.

I agree with dedelman.  That guy is replaceable.  Go ahead and arb him

Thanks for the rec. 

I think dedelman may have understated the case a bit, and that pitcher probably goes for more than $3M in FA in any of my Worlds. His effectiveness is slightly above average (slightly) for most Worlds, I think, but his Dur/Sta combo makes him a monster out of the pen. He could easily go for 150 IP+ used properly, and in none of my Worlds can you easily get that many average or slightly-above average IP for $3M.

If you are at $20M medical and want to roll the dice that he gets boosted back to his pre-injury ratings with the recovery (as his natural development is just about over, even at 25), he could end up being a *very* valuable piece both short-term (to help you stop losing 100+ games a year) and long-term, as the high-makeup rating would indicate he can be an iron-man out of the pen even after rebuilding is over and you have a team that is competing.

Yeah, he won't accept a long term deal at 3M per.  His demands are 5.5M per for 5 years.  

Posted by jryager on 3/31/2011 11:38:00 PM (view original):
Yeah, he won't accept a long term deal at 3M per.  His demands are 5.5M per for 5 years.  

I'd take a look at what similar RP command in your particular World. In one of mine, that is on the high side, but in another (which is weaker overall in pitching) that's probably less than he would command if he was being bid on. Given the right World, though, that doesn't seem unreasonable.

zb brings up a couple of interesting points worth commenting on.

1)  Yes, you can get 150 IP out f this guy-- but at a price.  You'll have to run a higher pitch count than you might want to, leaving him with a fair bit of in-game fatigue, and making him less likely to be able to make those 150 IP be of league average quality.  I'd expect a worse ERA at 150 IP than at the 100 or so I'd prefer to give him.
2)  That said, I failed to account for injury recovery in my response.  He'll regain a point or two per category.  Furthermore, you may be able to just keep him on the 60-day DL all season, since you're rebuilding, in which case if you can run your medical budget high enough he may see massive improvement due to a known bug (not sure exactly how that works for medical <$20M, check out other threads on the topic). 

Don't arb him, period.  Either sign him long-term or release him; I'd still probably favor release but I can now see going the other way, and if your medical budget happens to be $20M I'd sign him and keep him on the 60-day DL all season for sure.