I struggle with deciding when a prospect is a lost cause, or worth promoting to the ML in hopes of improving them closer to their Projected numbers. These 3 pitchers seem to have 'stabilized' at the AAA level.

Case 1:  Is it, once they stabilize they improve very little and are Lost Causes?
 
Case 2:  Or is it, if they have never been to the majors, there is still room for improvement and you give them a shot (if they are 24-25)?

McElroy is 24, never been to the majors. Phil McElroy
Peters is 26, never been to majors.Weldon Peters
Harrelson is 24, been to majors briefly and demoted, but still young (sort of). Marty Harrelson

Almost all development occurs in the first 3 seasons.  You'll get a couple of points in seasons four and five, but after that don't expect much.  Those three are awful and shouldn't see the majors.  Don't cut corners on your minor league coaching staff either, you could be ******* your prospects down the drain.

Good info ersberg; thank you! So, it would be a good idea to make sure you connect your prospects with your best Minor coaches within the first 3 seasons, and leave the ML coaches to do the final 'polishing' in years 4, 5.

As for your assessment, thanks! I defer; I'm just a nOOb. It's confusing because a couple of my pitchers on the ML roster have comparable numbers with the above 3, and yet seem to do ok (in a -3/-3 HR home stadium). King Mayer with AC/LH/RH/GB 77-45-56-81 #'s has a 4.22 ML career ERA, Horacio Martin 86-48-57-74, has a 4.37 career ERA. How am I supposed to separate the wheat from the chaff?!

  The five guys you have listed , vsRHB are 49,51,51, 56 and 57.  That wont cut it in the majors, and maybe not in AAA depending on your world.  While not trying to sound like a douchebag-- using crappy players will yield crappy results.  Successful ML pitchers should be near 65 vsR and should have at least two pitches above 70. 

Here's an oversimplified way to think about it.  A pitcher with ratings that are all 70 for the red ratings (well, say P3-P5 trail off a bit from 70) will be slightly below average, 5th starter quality, in most worlds.  If you have any ratings well below 70, especially control or VsR (the 2 most important pitching ratings imo), you will have to have other ratings well above 70 to make up for it, just to get to the SP5 level.  What follows is my opinion of the 5 pitchers you posted, using that approach.

McElroy has all his important ratings well below 70 except for P1 and P2; this isn't enough to make up for the bad contact and splits.  He's not a major league pitcher, not even a good AAA pitcher.

Peters has both Vs ratings way below 70; the 78 control doesn't bring him close to major league level.  He is an ordinary AAA pitcher.

Harrelson has VsR of 51, and this is almost balanced by a control of 78 and a GB of 89.  He is a AAAA pitcher, would not be the worst long reliever if he had better stamina.  You can find guys like this in Rule 5 in most worlds.  He's not a horrible injury replacement at the major league level, but he's not valuable at all.

Mayer has bad Vs ratings, with some control and GB to make up for it.  He's a starter of similar utility to Harrelson.

Although Martin has bad Vs ratings, especially vsL, his mid-80s control and P1 balance that reasonably.  I would not be too embarrassed to use him as an SP5 in the majors, although ordinarily I hope for a little more from that slot.

Finally, remember that you need to adjust your expectations for your park.  You're playing in San Francisco, in the NL; you should expect a league-average pitcher pitching for you to have an ERA in the high 3s (will vary some by world).  4.22 and 4.37, while OK for guys at the bottom of your staff, are probably not the kind of ERAs that will move you towards a championship; they would be quite good if you were playing in the AL, in Santa Fe.

Well, the good news is, no missed opportunities from Lost Causes. The bad news is, I never had any Causes.  :-) 

By your yardsticks, my ML pitching staff are a bunch of pine-bench punks. And indeed, my current ML NL All Pitchers Rankings is 64, putting me in a 3-way tie for dead last. (Listen for the sound of 1-handed clapping.) My team's pitching ERA for Away games, at 3.69, ranks me 8th in the NL, with the NL avg. ERA of 4.05. Home, of course, I do better. At 12-10 I'm leading the division, but have no doubts that this is temporary.

Ok, the current crop is headed for the white ceramic disposal system, and you've shown me how to assess ML quality pitching. 

But now the two of you have got me wondering about the Pent of other pitchers and 1 position player that I have been counting on to bootstrap the team with, especially given the 3 year growth target Ersberg said. Applying what you guys say, here are my new takes on these 5 pitchers. Mind telling me if you think I'm right or wrong? 

Juan Ciriaco - Bona fide star potential. 23, 1 pro year, and already in kicking distance of the marks.

Julio Martis - Thought he was star potential, now he's iffy. 22, 4th pro year, only a star if he's a late bloomer, but more likely an SP2-3. (Dag nabbit! To think of who I traded to get him!)

Louis Ensberg - Thought he was going to be good, now a middle-of-the-roader. 23, 3rd pro year, even his Projected splits are too low at 56/62, depite the accuracy, 1st and 2nd, and GB.

Jay Heredia - SP3 potential. 25, 3rd pro year, should reach the splits mark (though not his projected, of course). And his 1st and 2nd pitches should help him past the mediocre accuracy.

Domingo Nunez - Should be a good Closer. 3rd pro year, and still needs a lot of improvement, but he's only 21 and should make all the marks.

Rudy Brand - Thought he'd be a SP4 or 5, now a Mopup at best. 23, a 4th year pro unlikely to improve much, sub-par splits, and low 1st and 2nd pitches won't help.

I should not count on CF Donte Hamill improving much either. Although 26, it's his 8th pro year.

Not to be a jerk but you have to weigh the HBD knowledge of those giving advice before taking it. 

First, pitchers develop differently than hitters.  And their skills decline later.  I've had several pitchers not make the pros before 28-29 y/o.    They will plateau for a couple of seasons but many, depending on coaching, will continue to improve their learned skills(like splits) at some point. 

Second, pitching has many moving parts.  You can't really get away with 50 splits and 60s pitches but that's not to say you can't use a pitcher who has one or the other. 

Lastly, if someone says "He won't cut it in the BL" and he has 700 innings with a 1.35 WHIP and 4.37 ERA, take his advice with a grain of salt.  The pitcher in question has already "cut it".   He's not a star but he's a weak SP3, a solid SP4 and a fantastic SP5 on a good team. 

And Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Louis Ensberg will be fine if used properly.  

I disagree with your assessments on Ensberg (Mike's right, he's better than you think or will be when he's done developing) and Heredia (whom I don't think will quite make it).  In addition, Nunez' 39 health will be a wild card in his development, although if he avoids injury he'll be a fine closer.  Otherwise I think you're on track.

Posted by MikeT23 on 4/16/2011 6:16:00 PM (view original):
Not to be a jerk but you have to weigh the HBD knowledge of those giving advice before taking it. 

First, pitchers develop differently than hitters.  And their skills decline later.  I've had several pitchers not make the pros before 28-29 y/o.    They will plateau for a couple of seasons but many, depending on coaching, will continue to improve their learned skills(like splits) at some point. 

Second, pitching has many moving parts.  You can't really get away with 50 splits and 60s pitches but that's not to say you can't use a pitcher who has one or the other. 

Lastly, if someone says "He won't cut it in the BL" and he has 700 innings with a 1.35 WHIP and 4.37 ERA, take his advice with a grain of salt.  The pitcher in question has already "cut it".   He's not a star but he's a weak SP3, a solid SP4 and a fantastic SP5 on a good team. 

Good advbice Mike. I just shake my head when I read these "That guy sucks and should never make the majors" responses.

Those guys suck and should never make the minors.

LOL! Miss your juice today Tropicana?

Thanks guys; good advice. I appreciate your taking the time to look over things! Now, if I can just draft one more good pitcher....

Mike, I didn't realize they hit their plateau a bit later than position players, and lasted a bit longer, and yes, I feel the current guys may be average or slightly below, but are proven MLers.

One thing that is sad about HBD is the predictability of draft picks. I can tell by the three players you listed that 2nd, 4th, and 4th round draft choice as the reason those players were not major league quality players........ If you are a playoff quality team you probably don't have many, if any, 2nd round or lower picks on your major league roster. You get your occasional Catcher or relief pitcher that is a 2nd round pick that makes the squad, but a lot of coaches can just look at where a prospect was drafted in connection with the High School/College budget of the team that draft the player and tell if the player has a chance or not, that is why you are seeing so many coaches drift towards O in advanced scouting.

I would like to see HBD have some other factors besides DITR that would (during a players minor league career) move a players ceiling up or down. Get rid of some of the predictability of the draft .

You should stick that into the good ideas pocket. The DITR would work better it they didn't cap it at a certain player level; you almost never see a player get a boost that gets them over the hump into ML status, and I've never heard of a ML quality player getting a boost.

I think there are other reasons why folks go to 0 in advanced scouting -- that one puts a lot of trust in the owner's intelligent drafting. :-)  A mistake if you're working off my picks! (Although I'm getting better.)