I just took over a franchise and am working on filling in a few holes and getting younger.  I've been offered a trade that seems to be a no brainer, but I'd be giving up a DiTR and I didn't know what the future holds for  Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Adam Kirk.  Is there a guideline most owners use regarding DiTR's? As long as they're used correctly, are they no-doubters or would trading Kirk for  Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Virgil Cruz be a legit deal?

 

Thanks

DITR's are genreally anything but "sure things".  Can't see projections for either of these guys, but Kirk doesn't look like he's going to develop to be anything really special.  Cruz seems like he has the potential to be a more useful player.

Depends what you're giving up.  With Kirk, if he's a DiTR, I'd be wary.  It's pretty rare for any DiTR to be good enough to make the bigs.  I've only played 19 seasons, with 4 currently.  In those 23 overall, I've had one guy - 1 guy - hold down a marginal BL job, as a reliever for about one season.  Chances are good he won't make his projections, which we don't see.  But FWIW, his previous year's improvement looks promising.

For Cruz, he's okay.  Again, it depends what you're giving up.  Cruz will steal you a lot of bases if you're building your team that way.  He may be able to play adequate center, depending how much more his range goes up.  His glove isn't great, but his range may get you a few + plays.  If you surround him with an offense, he won't hurt you there.

DiTR's have weird development patterns though - which makes it more difficult to predict.  Some have grown tremendously.

Cruz looks like a servicable backup as I'm not sure his glove is going to play well enough in CF.  He can definently steal a base or two, good pinch runner, could play multiple positions as a backup, etc... Not a bad player to have at the end of your bench.  I don't know the pitcher's true projections now, but he's still pretty young and his improvements last season intrigue me enough that I'd hold on to him and see how he improves the next couple of seasons.  If he improves as much over the next two, as he did last year, you've got a solid back of the rotation pitcher for pretty cheap.  Make sure you get him up on the spring training roster, and give him as many innings as you can.  His improvements over spring training will give you a clue about how much room he has to improve this year.  If you see some 2 & 3 points gains, he's got a lot of growth left.  If he staggers in a couple of areas and only sees 1 point in a few, he's close to being done.

Posted by bigal888 on 4/18/2011 11:53:00 AM (view original):
DiTR's have weird development patterns though - which makes it more difficult to predict.  Some have grown tremendously.

One of the factors in development appears to be the gap between current and projected.  When a guy gets a DITR bump in his projected, the gap is now bigger, so the development will occur in bigger jumps. 

It's not really a "weird" development pattern . . . it's just a new development pattern.  You pretty much have to disregard the old one unless you have a pretty good idea of what the old projections were and can "predict" what the new development is going to be with the bigger gap.

We cannot see your projections, but Cruz looks like a 2B to me, and a potentially useful one.  Definitely not a CF though.  He should end up with plus range (which he already has) and a plus glove (maybe 76-78), with a weak arm and poor throwing accuracy.  I would expect plenty of plus plays and fewer than league average errors, with a noticeable lack in double plays and even some minus plays/errors attributed to the arm.  

As a hitter, he might be decent for a slick fielding 2B, though he will likely be no good against lefties.  My guess is something like 72-75 contact, 55 power, 45 vL, 65 vR, 65 batting eye, 90 BR/97 SPD.  The speed/base running combo, along with decent contact ability, should produce plenty of infield hits, and in a neutral park I wouldn't be surprised to see him produce a 280/340/440 line (in Burlington I wouldn't be surprised to see 250/320/330, or worse/better).  Here is someone comparable who plays in a park that slightly favors offense, minus the speed, which I think will make Cruz a more successful hitter for average:  Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Gookie McGee.

As for the pitcher, it is hard to say.  Given his jump last season, and without knowing your projections, he could easily become a useful fourth SP, maybe even better than that.  With a bit more stamina he should throw 240+ innings a year (27 Dur & 85+ Stamina).  Two more seasons of development like this last one and he could be near elite in everything but velocity and grounball rate.  But he needs that kind of development to be anything more than a back of the rotation guy.  Best case, he develops to something like mid-80s control, mid-to-high 70s splits, two pitches in the upper 70s or low 80s, two pitches in the upper 40s or low 50s, and poor velocity and groundball ratings.  Worst case, he stay where he is.  I don't know what is more likely because I cannot see your projections, and DITR sometimes have one big jump and sometimes have multiple seasons of rapid development (like this guy Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Keith Rothschild).  One thing seems certain, his velocity and groundball rate will always keep him from being elite.  In Burlington he would likely be fine, but in a hitter's park, his inability to miss bats combined with an extreme fly ball tendency could get him killed.

It depends on what you need/value.  Personally, I pretty much agree with tec, but choose to be long winded about it.

I would not get excited about a DITR who is a starting pitcher. As far as DITR goes your SP looks better than any other DITR I have seen at starting pitcher.

Posted by tecwrg on 4/18/2011 12:58:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bigal888 on 4/18/2011 11:53:00 AM (view original):
DiTR's have weird development patterns though - which makes it more difficult to predict.  Some have grown tremendously.

One of the factors in development appears to be the gap between current and projected.  When a guy gets a DITR bump in his projected, the gap is now bigger, so the development will occur in bigger jumps. 

It's not really a "weird" development pattern . . . it's just a new development pattern.  You pretty much have to disregard the old one unless you have a pretty good idea of what the old projections were and can "predict" what the new development is going to be with the bigger gap.

weird isn't the word to use.  Your description sums up what I was getting at.

I think you can find a player like Cruz on the FA market for $1mil at any point in the year.  I would not trade anything for him, especially not a player with potential.

Max has it right there for sure.  trading away a guy who could possibly be good for a player you can pick up in FA for a mill is foolish.

As for DITRs I have one that has turned into a stud (a setup guy) but still a nice dependable (usually anyways!)  oh, he actually was a double DITR!  pretty sweet!