I'm trying to gauge what I guy I have in AAA will do in the majors.  He's a switch hitter with solid power and splits, but weak batting-eye and contact:

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=3280215

My guess is about .280 avg/.340 obp./.480 slg/.820 ops

You folks agree with my ballpark numbers?

7

I think you'll be disappointed. I'd guess something closer to

.260 / .310 / .450 - .760 OPS

Maybe 80 - 85 RC's over 650 PA
If you played him at LF or 1B you might get enough defensive lift to make him worthwhile, but between his bat and glove, he'd be a real liability at 3B.

He'll make a fine backup 3B/COF until his second year of arbitration, when he'll be too expensive for that role. He might surprise you with an .800 OPS sometime, but he's more likely a .600-.700 OPS guy.

Really? .600 - .800 OPS? Not exactly going out on a limb there, are you?

Here's a comp from your world

Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Napoleon Hughes

He's a tick better in a couple important categories, so I might refine my forecast to .770 - .775 OPS. I do agree with travisg that as a backup 3B/COF he's acceptable, but as a regular 3B his defense will not be acceptable for that bat.

Agree with dwoolery's projections, and with travis' assessment that that's a perfectly solid 4C reserve until his second season of arb.

Here is a player that is comparable in everything except eye.

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=1629266

He's a career .772 OPS.

I agree with you folks about his position.  I would definitely use him as a COF in the majors.  I actually have a comp on my very own team:

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=2388269

Standridge is faster and with better contact, but with less power.  I have this completely unsubstantiated suspicion that top quartile power ratings (Aybar is a 76) deliver qualitatively different results...and was hoping that someone would confirm this suspicion.  But alas, it looks like I am alone.  So Aybar is a good way to fill out a roster spot when he's cheap, but not a keeper come arbitration?  Would you guys start him at COF? 

I actually share your suspicion. I believe that the impact on performance as you approach the extremes of most of the relevant ratings is something closer to logarithmic than linear, but my math skills aren't up to the task of confirming it. I just think you need to get to 80 - 85 before it becomes noticeable.

Would i start him at COF? It depends on the alternative. His defense is about average in RF, but will prevent a few runs above average in LF. If i can use the salary i'd save playing him at a rookie contract to get a significant boost elsewhere then i think it could work.

.750

Posted by maxdeardorff on 4/22/2011 9:19:00 PM (view original):
I agree with you folks about his position.  I would definitely use him as a COF in the majors.  I actually have a comp on my very own team:

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=2388269

Standridge is faster and with better contact, but with less power.  I have this completely unsubstantiated suspicion that top quartile power ratings (Aybar is a 76) deliver qualitatively different results...and was hoping that someone would confirm this suspicion.  But alas, it looks like I am alone.  So Aybar is a good way to fill out a roster spot when he's cheap, but not a keeper come arbitration?  Would you guys start him at COF? 

Top-end power does tend to give better results than you'd expect, in my observation, but it doesn't start kicking in at 75. More like 85.

He is also very slow with a poor baserunning rating.  I see you getting frustrated with this player.