Posted by cburton23 on 5/13/2011 10:12:00 AM (view original):
Here two coaches, one qualified for a new job and one did not.  You tell me what's going on.

Coach 1-

		19-11	7-4	10-5	2-2	8-8		23	B+	NT At-large Bid NT (2nd Round)
		9-18	7-5	2-12	0-1	4-12		109	B+
		23-7	11-2	10-3	2-2	11-5	20	18	A-	NT At-large Bid NT (2nd Round)
		16-14	8-4	6-8	2-2	8-8		52	B+	NT At-large Bid NT (1st Round)
		22-8	11-3	9-3	2-2	12-4	22	21	B+	Conf Champion NT At-large Bid NT (2nd Round)

Coach 2-

		24-9	12-4	9-4	3-1	10-6	19	41	B+	PI Champion
		22-9	10-2	9-5	3-2	12-4		29	B+	NT At-large Bid NT (Sweet 16)
		22-6	10-2	12-2	0-2	12-4	22	27	B	NT At-large Bid NT (1st Round)
		12-16	8-7	3-8	1-1	5-11		121	C+
		9-18	7-6	2-11	0-1	4-12		156	C+

Note-  Not a knock any either coach, I think both should have been qualified.

I'm going to presume Coach 1 didn't qualify and Coach 2 did...and if this is a trick question and C1 qualified while C2 didn't, then I'm stumped.

Coach 2 has a significantly better win percentage over the last 4 seasons (I don't think hiring looks at the fifth, so it'd be a .667 win percentage for C2 vs. .573 for C1). The 9-18 in year 2 for C1 would also hurt as it has widely been said that the hiring process weighs recent seasons more heavily. We don't know anything about reputations for either coach, so that may or may not have factored.

Like I said, my assumption (the mother of all foul ups) is C2 qualifies and C1 doesn't...if the opposite is true, I eagerly await seeing someone else's take on the situation.

I'm in the same boat of Coach 2 qualified, Coach 1 didn't. Unless it's some weird scenario where Coach 1 has been with his team for 10+ seasons and Coach 2 only has 5 seasons. 

For starters, including that fifth season is superfluous -- it's the last four that really matter. (Not defending the system, just saying.)

I'm guessing that Coach 1 got tripped up because he went 9-18 two seasons ago.

One thing that the jobs engine doesn't do a good job with is accounting for a single down year like that. In real life, a "hot" coach coming off a big season or two is obviously worth something, but overall, schools are astute enough to look at the body of work and not get thrown by one down season. (Turgeon when he got hired by A&M is a great example of this, coming off a down year but had consistent past success.)

You are correct.  I just thought both should be qualified, but Coach 1 wasn't even a long shot.  To make it more interesting Coach 2 has been at his previous school for 5 years, Coach 1 for 10 .  I thought both coaches would have a shot at a better job, but I guess not for Coach 1.

What gets my goat is the I am told by Simmy that I need to show in can make the NT more consistantly.  Pretty odd considering I have made the NT 3 out of the last 4 years and Coach 2 only 2 of the last 4.

Considering that I only had 3 good seasons (albeit the most recent 3) during my 6-year stint at Providence, and that my reputation was only an A-, I was a little surprised to be qualified for the Indiana job, and more surprised that I got it - I assumed there would be more qualified applicants. The fact that Indiana's recent 1-26 season dropped them to a B+ prestige certainly helped my cause.

I know the hiring looks at the most recent 4 years primarily, but I wonder if the fact that I had 15 seasons in DI at Notre Dame and Kentucky before dropping the world and coming back had any impact on being qualified.

Not sure trey, and to be honest I do think you are qualified, I just thought I would be as well, but I didn't even get the longshot nod.  It was just a straight up no.

All that said I am sure you will do a better job at IU than I would.

Don't know about that, cb - I'm the master of the early NT exit.  At any rate, continued good luck with the Hokies.

Posted by cburton23 on 5/13/2011 11:48:00 AM (view original):
You are correct.  I just thought both should be qualified, but Coach 1 wasn't even a long shot.  To make it more interesting Coach 2 has been at his previous school for 5 years, Coach 1 for 10 .  I thought both coaches would have a shot at a better job, but I guess not for Coach 1.

What gets my goat is the I am told by Simmy that I need to show in can make the NT more consistantly.  Pretty odd considering I have made the NT 3 out of the last 4 years and Coach 2 only 2 of the last 4.

cburton, that's just like the messages that you get in recruiting -- don't read deeply into the actual verbiage. It just means yes, no or maybe. Don't get caught up in the verbiage because it's truly not designed to mean anything, it's just window dressing.

And yes, trey's additional 15 years of DI experience does earn him additional credit.

I think this definately merits attention from seble.. here is another case:

Coach A- all season @ DI, same school.  1 high major school before this one

		24-6	9-4	13-0	2-2	16-0		46	B-	Conf Champion NT At-large Bid NT (1st Round)
		23-9	8-5	11-2	4-2	15-1		32	B-	Conf Champion NT At-large Bid NT (Sweet 16)
		1-26	1-12	0-13	0-1	0-16		310	B-
		26-4	11-1	12-2	3-1	16-0	21	23	B	Conf Champion CT Champion NT (1st Round)
		28-6	11-4	10-1	7-1	15-1	5	28	B	Conf Champion CT Champion NT (Final Four)
		22-8	12-3	9-4	1-1	12-4		75	B-	Conf Champion PI (2nd Round)
		19-12	10-3	7-8	2-1	11-5		83	B-	PI (2nd Round)
		21-9	10-3	9-4	2-2	12-4		38	B-	NT At-large Bid NT (2nd Round)
		18-12	10-2	7-9	1-1	13-3		65	C+	Conf Champion PI (2nd Round)
		22-8	10-2	9-5	3-1	13-3		45	C+	Conf Champion CT Champion NT (1st Round)

Coach B:
all DI. Jumped from DIII to DI before this

		29-4	11-2	12-1	6-1	16-0	8	16	B	Conf Champion CT Champion NT (Elite 8)
		22-10	11-4	9-5	2-1	15-1		56	C+	Conf Champion PI (3rd Round)
		24-6	10-2	11-3	3-1	14-2		37	C+	Conf Champion CT Champion NT (1st Round)
		23-7	12-1	9-4	2-2	15-1		41	C	Conf Champion NT At-large Bid NT (1st Round)
		18-10	9-3	8-6	1-1	11-5		95	D+
		13-14	6-7	7-6	0-1	8-8		208	D+
		19-10	11-1	6-8	2-1	11-5		120	C-
		18-12	9-5	6-6	3-1	11-5		120	C-	CT Champion NT (1st Round)

So, player 2 obviously got the A prestige team in the jobs.  Player was was "not qualified"... obviously the 1-25 season hurt ( i didnt have enough stamina... several walk ons... before the previous fix of stamina) The real shocker though is that I wasn't even "longshot" for coach 2's school he left.

The even more head scratcher is here: in Season 46(year after my Final 4 run) I got beat out for an A prestige school by coach 3(his record starts with season 46... mine started with 49)

		28-3	10-2	14-0	4-1	16-0	20	18	B-	Conf Champion CT Champion NT (2nd Round)
		29-2	13-0	12-1	4-1	16-0	15	13	B-	Conf Champion CT Champion NT (2nd Round)
		20-10	9-2	9-7	2-1	12-4		72	C+	PI (1st Round)
		21-9	9-1	9-7	3-1	14-2		34	B-	Conf Champion CT Champion NT (1st Round)
		20-11	9-2	7-8	4-1	12-4		60	B-	Conf Champion CT Champion NT (2nd Round)
		25-6	11-1	10-4	4-1	15-1	17	22	C+	Conf Champion CT Champion NT (2nd Round)
		21-9	9-4	10-4	2-1	14-2		75	C+	Conf Champion PI (1st Round)

Just seems mildly inconsistant.... i hadnt even had my 1-26 season at that point.

its on seble's list theoretically...