Pitchers' Control (& lack) over Strikeouts & BB's Topic

Thanks for backing up my point with a solid example of exactly what I've been saying.

The past 3 seasons, Trenidad Valenzuela
's averaged about 580 AB & 70 BB.  About 60% of the BB total you'd find in MLB from a player with his attributes.

If you want to find more examples that back up my point, that would be nice.  But I'm fine if you stop here.  You've done enough.
6/30/2011 3:16 AM
I think you're missing the point.  In fact, I know you are.

We, as owners, overemphasize(IMO) pitcher control.  The simple fact that the guy can average 70 walks with while hitting .230 with 35 homers and a 130 strikeouts should tell you that "bad outliers" aren't used.  It's almost impossible to find a pitcher who averages 4.5/BB9.  We don't use them. 
6/30/2011 8:00 AM
D'Angelo Alarcon somehow found his way into 300+ ML innings.  This wouldn't have happened in a world with good, experienced owners.  But it was early in the life of HBD.

As a more recent example, I've currently got Ernest Moore on my team who lives by walking a few then getting GIDPs.  Moore is the result of an unusual circumstance, though.  He is my 25th player on my ML roster, and I only picked him up because the world prohibits trading and I needed an innings eater.  But he's been a pleasant surprise so far.  He's as close to a Carlos Marmol as I can find.  But, again, I wouldn't have taken the chance on him had I been able to acquire someone else via trades.

Typically if a guy has control below 50, he's rarely considered for a Major League team in HBD, so I wouldn't find it odd if HBD walks were below MLB averages.

Also, ratings are much more predictable than scouting reports.  MLB players don't have ratings.  Sometimes comparisons between HBD and MLB work.  Sometimes they don't.
6/30/2011 8:29 AM (edited)
I'm experimenting with Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Angel Owen

In part because I don't have good pitching on this team my first season in the world and in part because his VR is average, while his VEL/GB/P1/P2 and DUR/STM combo are outstanding.   WW claim after being banished to AAA for 6 seasons following 90 unsuccessful BL innings.
6/30/2011 8:33 AM
I used a comparable guy, Desi Andrus, for a few seasons. He averaged 7.6 K/9 and 5.65 BB/9 over 180 ML innings, with a 1.46 WHIP and 4.35 ERA, with a couple of outstanding seasons. When he priced himself out of my plans (and I developed at least one better option), he went unsigned. I guarantee he could have helped someone that season (including me; damn).
6/30/2011 9:59 AM
I think the lesson here is that low control pitchers are hard to find on teams that are A) winning and B) trying to win.    For the most part, a guy walking 5 per 9 isn't getting a job in this game.   Using my guy as an example, most owners look at 39 control and immediately dismiss him at a BL pitcher.  I needed some arms so I took a chance.  Another owner asked me about him and I said "If he doesn't work, I designate him and that's that.  It costs me 300k to find out."
6/30/2011 10:31 AM
I actually selected my guy toward the end of the Rule 5 draft (my team was still on a run of sustained excellence), and I figured I'd experiment until he cost me some games. He actually did pretty well in his first two seasons (0.95 WHIP, 2.82 ERA and 7.98 K/9, despite walking 5.75 per 9. Then he started giving up a lot more hits (around the time my team defense started to decline), and his WHIP jumped to 1.62 and his ERA ballooned to 5.93 (his K rate fell to 7.34/9 and his walk rate also dipped to 5.63/9).

My point? Outliers do exist, but few of us use them. Maybe some of us should, at least under the right circumstances.
6/30/2011 12:49 PM
So, basically....user issue and not game issue. Agreed?

ie. "why doesn't player X exist", answer; "he does, if everyone built their team like an MLB GM...which they don't"
6/30/2011 1:23 PM

Yes, travis and I are both using a specific player while trying to win(I'm failing despite my guy pitching pretty well and he actually won) but we're outliers.  It's hard to find pitchers with 40 control in the bigs.   Because we don't use them.  If we did, walk totals would go up.

6/30/2011 1:28 PM
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Plus you touched on a good point, with a very good defense behind him, a lower control pitcher can be effective, as that D might save a run or two a game with a plus play or a timely double play.  But if you don't have the good D, then you are just cutting wires randomly on a bomb.
7/3/2011 8:38 AM
I had a pitcher named Damion Carter who is the kind of pitcher you are thinking about. he was solid for me for about 5 years. struck out around a batter an inning, and walked over 100 batters a year in 170 innings or so. I would paste it if i knew how.
7/3/2011 9:50 AM
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Pitchers' Control (& lack) over Strikeouts & BB's Topic

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