Season 38 is about to begin and the excitement is palpable in the Mountain West Conference. It looks like once again Utah is favored to win the East, but with R.Oliver declaring early for the NBA and leaving a huge void in shqipta’s heart, BYU, New Mexico, and TCU were able to close the gap and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see one or more of those teams outperform Utah. CSU just barely knocked Wyoming off of the top spot in the West, but its close enough that either team could win the division. The comparison with last year’s Power Ratings (based on the proprietary “Shqipta Rating Points” system) shows an interesting trend. Ten of the twelve MWC teams have more talent than last year. Many of the teams, including BYU, New Mexico, TCU, CSU, and UNLV showed dramatic improvements which will create a bloodbath in conference play.

In Season 3 the MWC sent 3 teams to the NT, in Season 36 the MWC sent 2, in Season 37 the MWC sent 2, with 4 making the PI. With the across the board improvement in the MWC, it will be possible for the MWC to send half of its teams to the Big Dance.   

As to coaching issues, only one coach quit/was fired/disappeared silently in the night, and that was pnedwek. It isn’t clear whether the lynch mob of Falcon boosters that showed up at his house convinced him to resign, but he left quietly after 4 disappointing seasons at the helm. The athletic director hired an unknown by the name of Simm Poleton, who failed to impress after landing a terrible recruiting class. We’ll see if the guy knows how to coach, but in speaking to several PAC 10 coaches, who were taking a break from the Brony convention in Las Vegas, was that the guy couldn’t coach Ignacio Ortiz (Illinois), Timmy Evans (Oklahoma), and Corey Jansen (Kansas) to a championship. I’d think if you got those “Big Three” together on the same team, any coach who wasn’t a simpleton could get the job done. I mean, any time you take three guys with that kind of talent and put them together on a team, you are guaranteed a championships.

Several teams in the MWC had stellar recruiting this year as both BYU (12^th) and TCU (21^st) received National Recognition for their classes. The MWC as a whole finished 6^th ahead of the Big Ten.  

Now here’s what you’ve all been waiting for, the unveiling of the MWC Season 38 preseason rankings, complete with “Shqipta Rating Points”:

East

(1)    Utah (630) (+10 srp)
(2)    BYU (620) (+20 srp)
(3)    New Mexico (615) (+16 srp)
(4)    TCU (615) (+15 srp)
(5)    T.S.U. (585) (+10 srp)
(6)    Denver (559) (-20 srp)

West

(1)    CSU (630) (+13 srp)
(2)    Wyoming (629) (+9 srp)
(3)    UNLV (605) (+15 srp)
(4)    SDSU (590) (+9 srp)
(5)    AF (574) (-1 srp)
(6)    N.Texas (573) (+7 srp)

 

PLAYERS TO WATCH (In no Particular Order, except for Palacio)

(1) D.Palacio-Wyoming-Last season he scored 18.5 ppg, was the MWC Player of the Year and made 1^st Team All-American. He must have one hot girlfriend living in the barren wastelands around Laramie. I can’t see any other reason why he’d come back to torment the rest of the MWC.

(2) J.Bruton-Wyoming-As a sophomore he scored 10.0 ppg, with 3.6 apg and 1.6 spg.

(3) S. Riley-BYU-Last season he scored 10.4 ppg for BYU and provides a ton of veteran leadership on a deep BYU team.

(4) R. Aybar-New Mexico-Delivered last year with 10.4 ppg and 6.2 rpg.

(5) M. Torpey-New Mexico- Gave the Lobos 10.6 ppg and 3.4 apg. Probably the highest BB IQ in the MWC.

(6) C. Sharp-TCU-1^st Team All MWC while averaging 15.8 ppg. He’s already the second leading scorer in TCU history and will easily pass Wilbur Mann this season.

(7) C. Long-TCU-Scored 13.7 ppg last season.

(8) C.Ewing-Utah-Scored 13.7 ppg last season with 3.7 apg. Also recognized as 1^st Team All MWC.

(9) D.Byford-Utah-No longer playing in R.Oliver’s shadow. Also recognized as 1^st Team All MWC.

(10) V.Cusack-N.Texas- 11.9 ppg and 3.2 apg. He has started every game for the Mean Green the last two seasons.

(11)D. Hash-CSU-Last season he shot .528% from the field while scoring 17.0 ppg and hauling in 7.1 rpg. 

We just finished non-conference play in the MWC conference and there are a few suprises and disappointments. Utah is playing way over their heads with a stellar 7 RPI. Wyoming is impressive as expected, and Denver came out of nowhere to be in contention for a NT berth. Colorado St., BYU and TCU are somewhat disappointing, but UNLV would win the award for most disappointing team so far with an RPI that only a mother could love.

East
     Team/RPI/Change In Standings

(1) Utah (7) (+0)
(2) New Mexico (57) (+1)
(3) Denver (58) (+3)
(4) BYU (104) (-2)
(5) T.S.U (117) (+0)
(6) TCU (182) (-2)

West

(1) Wyoming (23) (+1)
(2) CSU (84) (-1)
(3) Air Force (+2)
(4) SDSU (195) (+0)
(5) N. Texas (257) (+1)
(6) UNLV (266) (-3)

As expected D.Palacio is leading the charge for Wyoming with 19.5 ppg and 8.6 rpg, numbers that keep him as the clear favorite to win player of the year. C.Long and D.Hash from TCU and CSU respectively are both close on his heels, each contributing more than 18 ppg and while contributing in several other categories for their teams.

The regular season is now concluded so it’s time to take a look back at Season 38 for the MWC, including a comparison of how “Shqipta Rating Points System” did in predicting the Final Standings of Season 38. While there were a few teams that underperformed, the SRPS was surprisingly accurate. Denver and Texas Southern switched places, and Colorado St. made me look bad by falling behind Wyoming. But other than those two minor changes, the Final Rankings match the Preseason Rankings.

We didn’t get as many teams into the postseason as I was expecting/hoping. Because there were several teams that failed to meet expectations, including BYU, New Mexico, TCU, Colorado St., UNLV, and SDSU. I expected at least three of those teams to make the NT and the rest to be playing in the PI. Instead, BYU and CSU had to settle for PI invites, while the rest hopefully will use the extra time to strategerize for next season.

The most impressive team in the conference was Wyoming. Wyoming has been invited to the National Tournament five seasons in a row, making to the second round this year. The Cowboys have taken home the last two MWC conference championships, fatchance was rightfully named coach of the year, and Darryl Palacio took home his second consecutive MWC Player of the Year Trophy. Palacio will no doubt be playing professional ball next year, after he scored 1486 points and pulled down 783 rebounds during his career as a Cowboy. Last I heard, the Denver Nuggets were interested in bringing the Arvada, Co native back home. With potentially three starters returning, and only two seniors on this season’s team, Wyoming will be right back in the hunt next season. Though it’s hard to imagine that John Bruton, a Junior PG, who contributed 15.5 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.7 apg, and 1.5 spg will choose to spend another year in Laramie, when he could be getting paid the big bucks. Fatchance will likely spend the off season with Bruton, trying the same tricks that kept Palacio around last year.   

It’s not all about the Cowboys in the MWC. Utah played in its 4^th NT in 5 seasons and made it to the Sweet 16 for the second time. As of this posting, they’re still playing with a matchup against the always dangerous Buffaloes of Colorado, who soundly spanked Utah in Salt Lake City earlier this year. Utah loses three seniors, but only C. Ewing played a major role on the team. If Bell, Podgurski, Thompson, Byford, and Zhou all stick around, Utah could very well be the favorite to win the conference next season. BYU continued its slow but steady climb to the top of the conference. Next season the Cougars return four starters and only lose one senior. Unfortunately, that senior, S.Riley was a big part of BYU’s game plan and he’ll be hard to replace. With five solid juniors, and a deep bench, next year will be an important one for mmt0315. We all know that BYU fans are about as fickle as they come. It looked like this would be the year that New Mexico would finally stop the 22 year NT drought that Albuquerque has been suffering from, but it wasn’t to be. If I were chip1213, I’d consult with some kind of witch doctor from New Orleans, Priest from Indiana, or crazy guy from Montana to see what can be done to get rid of what can only be described as a “curse.” It’s not going to be easy next year, as the Lobos lose 5 seniors, including 4 starters. Denver’s new coach, Simm Poleton impressed with his ability to coach a team that lacked skill, but at some point his inability to recruit decent players will be too much for even the best coach to overcome, and Denver is clearly a team on the decline. Texas Southern played a tough schedule, scored a few wins, and gained a ton of experience for the young Tigers. With all of the starters and most of the bench consisting of Freshmen and Sophomores, there is nowhere to go but up for the team from Houston. Don’t be surprised to see Texas Southern explode with 20+ wins next year.

While Colorado St. didn’t perform as well as I thought they might, it could have been due to the fact that they were still very young. With only one senior, the lack of leadership hurt the team this year, but the experience gained by the younger players should pay dividends next season in Fort Collins. Next year the Rams will have a deep, experienced team, led by M.Eubanks and J.Doane. After four straight years of one and done in the PI, the Rams fans are ready for a return to the NT. Mpate10 managed to salvage UNLV’s season after a dreadful non-conference showing. Wins against BYU and Denver should give some confidence to next year’s squad. SDSU managed big wins against CSU and BYU before running out of steam and losing 6 of their last 7 games. With 4 starters returning and a good level of depth, SDSU should continue to improve. With an interm coach at the helm, Air Force managed to improve their number of wins, wins in the conference, and RPI. So while it wasn’t a great season, at least it wasn’t a disaster. The bad news is that Air Force loses six seniors, and if the Athletic Director can’t find a quality coach to take over and bring stability to the program, the Falcons are going to be a tough sell to any recruit next season. Finally, the not so Mean Green of North Texas. Tmp741128 knew that taking over the team from Denton was a tough gig that would take three or four seasons for even the most skilled of coaches to make respectable. While the W/L column doesn’t show it, there has definitely been improvement in RPI and in quality of players since tmp741128 took the helm. In fact, as I was watching the security video (N.Texas can’t afford a stadium so they play in a local Wal-Mart parking lot) of the game against UNLV, I saw an impressive all-around effort from several players. N.Texas returns all five starters, including their two leaders in J.Eastman and M.Albrecht. If N.Texas can manage to get in the middle of the pack next season, they have a chance to make the NT in two.    

Final Rankings (As of 7/6/2011 Afternoon)

EAST

(1)    Utah-22 RPI (0) (Sweet 16 and still playing)

(2)    BYU-65 RPI (0) (2^nd round of PI and still playing)

(3)    New Mexico-89 RPI (0)

(4)    TCU-120 RPI (0)

(5)    Denver-154 RPI (+1)

(6)    TSU-208 RPI (-1)

WEST

(1)    Wyoming-21 RPI (+1) (2^nd round of NT)

(2)    CSU-75 RPI (-1)

(3)    UNLV-174 RPI (0)

(4)    SDSU-179 RPI (0)

(5)    AF-194 RPI (0)

(6)    N.Texas-269 RPI (0)
 

 

Conference Player of the Year

 

Darryl Palacio-Wyoming 19.8 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 1.3 spg. No surprise here as Palacio led his team to the 2^nd round of the NT. Palacio led the league in scoring and rebounds per game.

 

Team MVPs

EAST

(1)    Utah: C.Ewing 11.2 ppg and 4.8 apg.

(2)    BYU: S.Riley 15.1 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.7 apg

(3)    TCU: C.Long 18.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.7 apg

(4)    New Mexico: R.Aybar 11.7 ppg on .535% shooting, 6.1 rpg

(5)    Denver: T.Cordova 11.8 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.4 apg

(6)    TSU: V.Campbell 9.5 ppg, 6.1 rpg, .8 bpg

WEST

(1)    Wyoming: D.Palacio 19.8 ppg, 8.6 rpg

(2)    CSU: D.Hash 15.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 1.3 bpg

(3)    SDSU: D.Manis 9.4 ppg, 2.0 apg, 1.3 spg

(4)    UNLV: C.Hilovsky 14.3 ppg, 4.0 apg

(5)    Air Force: B.Pierce 10.7 ppg, 2.0 apg

(6)    N.Texas: J.Eastman 11.8 ppg, 3.2 apg, 1.3 spg

 

Just an update that no players from the MWC declared early. I haven't run the numbers yet, but I think that this will leave Utah as the clear favorite for Season 39.