Posted by jfranco77 on 11/3/2011 1:27:00 PM (view original):
Posted by thunder1008 on 11/3/2011 12:38:00 AM (view original):
Pitching wins playoffs, but it is very hard for new owners to learn not to overspend on pitching. Not all starters in your rotation are created equal. Many experienced owners will have two shutdown starters to take them through the playoffs, and then there will be a significant dropoff in quality to a more economical No. 3 starter (and Nos. 4, 5, etc. if applicable). Many owners will also draft an Elmer Steele/Art Nehf type for long relief and occasional spot starts during the regular season and then make him a No. 1 or 2 starter in the playoffs. Ditto with ultracheap position players with extremely low PA's and ridiculously good offensive stats who can be stashed for most of the regular season and then inserted in the starting lineup during the playoffs as "instant" .400 hitters.
That's one reason why you hear so many owners whining that the playoffs are "random" and "mediocre" 80/85 win teams blow past their 100+ win counterparts to win the WS. Very often these "mediocre" teams are managed by experienced owners who try to calculate just what it takes to sneak into the playoffs and then blow the competition away. .
I agree with all of this. Properly tiering your pitchers will help you in the playoffs as well as the regular season. I'll give you an example using ERC# as a stand-in for quality but any metric will do.
SP1: 300ip, 2.20 ERC#, 10mil
SP2: 300ip, 2.20 ERC#, 10mil
SP3 300ip, 2.20 ERC#, 10mil
----OR----
SP1: 300ip, 1.80 ERC#, 12mil
SP2: 300ip, 2.00 ERC#, 11mil
SP3: 300ip, 3.00 ERC#, 7mil
Yes, the 2nd example sets you up better for the playoffs, but it also gives you a better pitcher 2/3 of the time in the regular season.
I agree with your concept tiering your pitchers, jfranco, and almost always use your second example with my pitchers. But I would think that for the most part, a $7mil 300 inning pitcher won't win you many games. I would suggest bumping it up to at least $8mil for that third starter. Someone like 07 Tully Sparks who, although won't be dominating, will win his share of games.