What characteristics contribute? Topic

missouridawg
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I've got a player who has a great vsRH characterstic, yet he's hit anywhere from .299 to to .196 over the course of 4 seasons and each season, he had more than 150 at-bats against righties.

Is the sample size too small?  Does makeup/patience/temper have an affect on the variety of stats?

11/25/2011 9:57 PM
tecwrg
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Contact, power, batting eye and splits all work together.  As well as the quality of pitching in your world.
11/25/2011 10:09 PM
missouridawg
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So if I'm trying to predict what my hitter is going to do going forward, I would only use his contact, power, batting eye, and vsRH to determine what he should do against RH pitching?
11/25/2011 10:31 PM
tecwrg
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Pretty much, yeah.  The other attributes you mentioned in your first post have more to do with development or regression of ratings.
11/25/2011 10:41 PM
topoftheworl
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Posted by missouridawg on 11/25/2011 10:31:00 PM (view original):
So if I'm trying to predict what my hitter is going to do going forward, I would only use his contact, power, batting eye, and vsRH to determine what he should do against RH pitching?
There is so much luck to it as there is real baseball.  I use a formula of my own creation to estimate runs created per 27 and after all my tweaks it still has standard deviation of about a run.  Over the course of an entire team its pretty useful, but for any individual player its nothing better than an educated guess.
11/25/2011 10:50 PM
usfbully
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Posted by topoftheworl on 11/25/2011 10:50:00 PM (view original):
Posted by missouridawg on 11/25/2011 10:31:00 PM (view original):
So if I'm trying to predict what my hitter is going to do going forward, I would only use his contact, power, batting eye, and vsRH to determine what he should do against RH pitching?
There is so much luck to it as there is real baseball.  I use a formula of my own creation to estimate runs created per 27 and after all my tweaks it still has standard deviation of about a run.  Over the course of an entire team its pretty useful, but for any individual player its nothing better than an educated guess.
If odds and statistics are luck, then yeah. The higher the ratings are, the better the odds of that player performing is. I guess you could be lucky and run a team of 0-0-0-0 out there and still perform.
11/26/2011 9:09 AM
missouridawg
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topoftheworl - Did you do a regression analysis to get your formula?  I'm currently collecting stats from my three teams in hopes of coming up with a pretty good formula to predict the output of my players. 
11/26/2011 10:19 AM
rangerup
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My formula is to don't worry about it.  If the ratings that matter are there he will perform as expected over the long haul.  But some things you just can't predict.
11/26/2011 10:57 AM
pb15
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Your hitters speed and push pull rating too. And the pitchers ground ball/fly ball ratio and velocity and the fielders behind him. And ball park effects.

Learn to eyeball it, make the playoffs, and enjoy the coin flips.
11/28/2011 2:44 PM
kneeneighbor
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Posted by missouridawg on 11/25/2011 9:57:00 PM (view original):

I've got a player who has a great vsRH characterstic, yet he's hit anywhere from .299 to to .196 over the course of 4 seasons and each season, he had more than 150 at-bats against righties.

Is the sample size too small?  Does makeup/patience/temper have an affect on the variety of stats?

Is the .299-.196 his over all average or just against Right handed pitching?
11/29/2011 2:49 PM
deanod
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variance gonna vary imo

11/29/2011 2:51 PM
kneeneighbor
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Know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? It's 25 hits. 25 hits in 500 at bats is 50 points, okay? There's 6 months in a season, that's about 25 weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week - just one - a gorp... you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes... you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week... and you're in Yankee Stadium
11/29/2011 2:52 PM
budgie_lover
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Posted by kneeneighbor on 11/29/2011 2:52:00 PM (view original):
Know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? It's 25 hits. 25 hits in 500 at bats is 50 points, okay? There's 6 months in a season, that's about 25 weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week - just one - a gorp... you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes... you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week... and you're in Yankee Stadium
Thanks Crash!
11/29/2011 9:25 PM
topoftheworl
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Posted by missouridawg on 11/26/2011 10:19:00 AM (view original):
topoftheworl - Did you do a regression analysis to get your formula?  I'm currently collecting stats from my three teams in hopes of coming up with a pretty good formula to predict the output of my players. 
Yes.  Send me your e-mail via sitemail and I'll send you what I use, but I cannot overstate how useless it is for an individual player.  Its statistically useless with anything less than a full line up and even then its sd is still almost .3 runs a game.  Its fun because I enjoy such things, but its no replacement for the experience of some the guys who have posted in this thread.
11/29/2011 9:33 PM
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