Is this guy a #1 draft pick? Topic

I am 5 seasons in, with three teams and still learning. I have the number one overall pick in our upcoming amateur draft. I want to add a pitcher, but this guy has got me confused.

PROJECTED
OAV-89
make up-100
patience-4
Temper-31--actually projected to decline from 34
Health-99
STAM-83
DUR-18
Control-92
vs LH-86
vs RH-100
Veloc-99
GB/FB-61
Pitch 1-74
Pitch 2-88
Pitch 3-54
Pitch 4-32
 There is no pitch 5
My concerns are his durability----is this guy a starter?
Also, if his make-up is 100, why is his temper and patience so messed up?--Is this guy a head case in waiting?
He is a 20 year old college sophomore--I have a college scouting budget of $15M.

Thanks in advance....
RobertBaron

12/7/2011 9:38 AM (edited)

Makeup, patience are only very, very loosely related.  Temper is completely independent.

Makeup affects how well the player will develop when he's young, and stave off decline when he's older.  Patience can impact ratings somewhat in terms of promotions and demotions, as well as handling injuries.  It also plays a role in the player's willingness to go for free agency or resign with your team.

Temper is pretty much an in-game rating, nothing to do with development.  It will manifest itself in likelihood of getting thrown out of games for arguing.  For hitters, it also impacts dreawing HBP's.  Temper is the only rating in which the lower it is, the better.  So 31 temper is pretty good (think of it as a 69, if that helps).

As fas as this guy's makeup and patience rating go: as long as he is promoted regularly, not demoted, and stays healthy (health rating of 99 helps a lot, but you also want to keep your training budget high), he should be fine.  But he'll also bolt for FA at first opportunity to chase big bucks on the open market.

As for durability: yes, he's a starter.  He'll be able to go every 5th day if you carefully watch his pitch count.  But you may want or need to push him back a day every now and then.

12/7/2011 9:46 AM
Low temper is better than high temper.

With that DUR, he probably can pitch twice every 11 days, maybe 175 innings per year.  With those splits/control/pitchers he should be very good. 

 
12/7/2011 9:46 AM
He is a starter and worthy of a no. 1.
12/7/2011 10:36 AM
Current ratings?  At 15, you're scouts are going to be off in a few areas.  That 18 projected, could really be a 20 in the end, the 100 Vr could really be an 85, etc...

At those projected ratings, he's a no.1 and I'd be thrilled to land him.  He's got 2 drawbacks, 1 he's going to need a full 4 days rest b/w starts.  Not a huge deal in the season, but in the postseason, it would be nice to have this guy for a Game 1, game 4 & game 7 if needed.  This guy won't be able to do that.  2, he's going to free agency no matter what after his first huge contract.  Of course, that's like 3-4 real life years away and may or may not be your concern.

Oh, and I guess I should state the obvious, the only way to know if he's worthy of drafting at no.1 is to know what the rest of the field looks like, plus his signability.  Some drafts are better than others such that one seasons #1 pick may not make the top 5/10 of another seasons draft picks.
12/7/2011 1:26 PM
i think pretty much any pitcher who's going to get to 100 vR is worth the #1 pick

what's his current vR and who else is available?
12/7/2011 1:29 PM
I'd have been much happier with him than several of the top picks I've had recently.....
12/7/2011 1:43 PM
Posted by deanod on 12/7/2011 1:29:00 PM (view original):
i think pretty much any pitcher who's going to get to 100 vR is worth the #1 pick

what's his current vR and who else is available?
any pitcher?  I would like to get at least 150 innings out of a #1 pick...
12/7/2011 1:46 PM
Since there have been so many questions and value placed on the # of innings he can give you, here's a reasonable comp:

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=2774234

At the projections you show, you're guy would have better stuff, more stamina and more durability (not by a ton in either case, but slightly better in all 3)  The guy I linked has been good for about 175 innings over the last 3 seasons.  You're guy should be good for roughly 200 at the projections listed.  But again, what are his current ratings?  If he's an 18 durability now, then he might top off at an 19 or 20.  If he's a 16 now, then he might not rise above 17, if at all.
12/7/2011 2:06 PM
That's a great point by taz... physical ratings like dur and sta don't often move substantially over time.
12/7/2011 2:30 PM
Posted by bigal888 on 12/7/2011 1:46:00 PM (view original):
Posted by deanod on 12/7/2011 1:29:00 PM (view original):
i think pretty much any pitcher who's going to get to 100 vR is worth the #1 pick

what's his current vR and who else is available?
any pitcher?  I would like to get at least 150 innings out of a #1 pick...
i think any pitcher that gives you 120+ enters the equation depending on his other ratings and what else is available

was sort of assuming that nobody would be bumping the 20 sta 35 dur guy up from like 40th to #1 on their draft board or anything.
12/7/2011 2:43 PM
Thank you for the great insights: This guy has an OAV of 67 right, now; so his projected ceiling of 89 OAV passes the smell test; espcially with his make-up. He is a 20 year-old collge sophomore.
His current velocity is 81-projected to 99.
His current control is 66-projected to 92.
His current stamina is 71-projected to 83
His current vs. LH is 65, projected to 86
His current vs RH is 71, projected to 100.
His current durability (my biggest concern) is 18-projected to 18.

He will sign for slot money--..

I thank you all for your comments, and additional posts---it has been an excellent education.

Thanks all,
Robert Baron
12/7/2011 8:02 PM
I wouldn't be worried about his durability, just set his pitch count slightly lower and you can start him every 4 days. He's a stud, take him
12/7/2011 9:21 PM
Posted by robertbaron on 12/7/2011 8:02:00 PM (view original):
Thank you for the great insights: This guy has an OAV of 67 right, now; so his projected ceiling of 89 OAV passes the smell test; espcially with his make-up. He is a 20 year-old collge sophomore.
His current velocity is 81-projected to 99.
His current control is 66-projected to 92.
His current stamina is 71-projected to 83
His current vs. LH is 65, projected to 86
His current vs RH is 71, projected to 100.
His current durability (my biggest concern) is 18-projected to 18.

He will sign for slot money--..

I thank you all for your comments, and additional posts---it has been an excellent education.

Thanks all,
Robert Baron

He won't reach many of those estimages, vRH should top out in the lower 90s (still great obviously), Stamina in the upper 70s, maybe low 80s, control in the upper 80s.

None the less, signing for slot, que him up and don't look back.  It would help to have a long man down the road that can fill in as a 6th starter from time to time.  He'll be a stud, though he'll be limited to about 200 innings a season, and the biggest draw back is that he won't be able to pitch 3 times in a 7 game playoff set.  He'll be a regular all star

12/8/2011 1:48 PM
Is this guy a #1 draft pick? Topic

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