Who would you play at third? Topic

  PA HR AVG OB SLG Field
2000 Tony Batista 664 41 0.263 0.307 0.519 B+/A-
2000 Phil Nevin 605 31 0.303 0.374 0.543 D+/C+


Sure Nevin is a better hitter, but I keep looking at the defense.  Who would you play at 3rd?
12/29/2011 12:30 PM
Nevin easily IMO. Batista can come in as a defensive replacement.
12/29/2011 12:54 PM
I'm not sure why you have both on your team, but I'd probably play Nevin. It depends on your park, though, since that will affect Batista's HRs and how big the AVG gap is between them. I see it as pretty close to a wash.

A- and C+ players aren't going to get huge numbers of + or - plays. Maybe a swing of 5 between them. And maybe Nevin makes 20 more errors, so that's 25 negative plays. Since it's 3B, a few might be more than 1 base, but on average that will probably cost you 20-25 runs. There may also be some small hit to your ability to turn DPs but I can't measure it.

Nevin will get on base about 43 more times in 650 PAs, and slug for about 16 more bases. What's that worth? Probably 15-20 runs, a little less if the difference is mostly walks and a little more if it's a lot of hits.

If you can get Batista in for defense in the late innings, that lessens the impact of Nevin's glove. And he's not a terrible hitter if he has to come to the plate, though you do lose him as a PH for someone else.
12/29/2011 1:23 PM
I would pop in Batista in the starting lineup here and there when the opponant pitching has a high HR/9, especially vs. lefties.  It seems like you are in some sort of progressive or theme league so you wont likey pitch dead ball guys. Sometimes when I throw a dead ball guy and I have enough offense I like to have some position players that play better defense which is where I would pop Batista in here and there. The park your playing in may play a factor as well. Overall for offensive purposes Nevin has really solid numbers compared to Batista.  I know there has been times though when I just cant handle the errors any more and cut or yank the player but be patient especially in a modern league.
12/29/2011 2:01 PM
Posted by jfranco77 on 12/29/2011 1:23:00 PM (view original):
I'm not sure why you have both on your team, but I'd probably play Nevin. It depends on your park, though, since that will affect Batista's HRs and how big the AVG gap is between them. I see it as pretty close to a wash.

A- and C+ players aren't going to get huge numbers of + or - plays. Maybe a swing of 5 between them. And maybe Nevin makes 20 more errors, so that's 25 negative plays. Since it's 3B, a few might be more than 1 base, but on average that will probably cost you 20-25 runs. There may also be some small hit to your ability to turn DPs but I can't measure it.

Nevin will get on base about 43 more times in 650 PAs, and slug for about 16 more bases. What's that worth? Probably 15-20 runs, a little less if the difference is mostly walks and a little more if it's a lot of hits.

If you can get Batista in for defense in the late innings, that lessens the impact of Nevin's glove. And he's not a terrible hitter if he has to come to the plate, though you do lose him as a PH for someone else.
I'm not sure how 20-25 bad plays at 3rd cost a team 20-25 runs, while getting on base 43 more times and slugging for more bases is only worth 15-20.
12/29/2011 2:17 PM
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What cap and what kind of league?

In terms of defense the average difference in OL performance is equivalent to ~10 errors and 8 plus/minus plays.  That, however won't come close to the 40 RC advantage Nevin has on offense (over fewer PA, mind you).

I'd say Nevin hands down and I am the kind of owner that values defense.

12/30/2011 1:04 AM
Posted by mixtroy on 12/29/2011 9:10:00 PM (view original):
I'm still trying to figure out why two fulltime third basemen were drafted.
They are playing different positions in 1999 and will play different positions in 2001.
12/30/2011 1:53 AM
I think the consensus as a straight comparison is to play Nevin at 3rd, but more information is needed.  It's not known what position you would play Batista. I can't imagine 664 pa's on the bench.  If it's 1B or a corner OF, then I'd put the better defender (Bautista) at 3B............and most importantly do NOT play Nevin at 2B or SS.
12/30/2011 9:21 AM
Posted by SpotSell on 12/30/2011 1:53:00 AM (view original):
Posted by mixtroy on 12/29/2011 9:10:00 PM (view original):
I'm still trying to figure out why two fulltime third basemen were drafted.
They are playing different positions in 1999 and will play different positions in 2001.
So we're talking a Progressive/Theme then. Now it makes more sense. What about 1b or LF for the "other"?
12/30/2011 10:51 AM
since you have both play both. I'd also lean toward Nevin most of the time but it's close I'd give Batista some starts. the best time to start batista is in a pitchers duel and in a +HR situation.
12/30/2011 11:06 AM
Posted by minnow on 12/29/2011 2:17:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jfranco77 on 12/29/2011 1:23:00 PM (view original):
I'm not sure why you have both on your team, but I'd probably play Nevin. It depends on your park, though, since that will affect Batista's HRs and how big the AVG gap is between them. I see it as pretty close to a wash.

A- and C+ players aren't going to get huge numbers of + or - plays. Maybe a swing of 5 between them. And maybe Nevin makes 20 more errors, so that's 25 negative plays. Since it's 3B, a few might be more than 1 base, but on average that will probably cost you 20-25 runs. There may also be some small hit to your ability to turn DPs but I can't measure it.

Nevin will get on base about 43 more times in 650 PAs, and slug for about 16 more bases. What's that worth? Probably 15-20 runs, a little less if the difference is mostly walks and a little more if it's a lot of hits.

If you can get Batista in for defense in the late innings, that lessens the impact of Nevin's glove. And he's not a terrible hitter if he has to come to the plate, though you do lose him as a PH for someone else.
I'm not sure how 20-25 bad plays at 3rd cost a team 20-25 runs, while getting on base 43 more times and slugging for more bases is only worth 15-20.
Offensively, a walk is worth on average about 1/3 of a run. The extra slugging is harder to figure. I usually use half a run. So that's about 13 + 8 or 21 runs.

I figured out that a + play at 3B was worth about .75-.8 runs on average, so I am assuming that a - play or error is worth the same in the other direction. It might be worse when you factor in the extra innings you have to use.
12/30/2011 1:37 PM
^ a walk is worth more than 1/3rd of a run if he walks instead of making an Out.
12/30/2011 2:50 PM
Posted by jfranco77 on 12/30/2011 1:37:00 PM (view original):
Posted by minnow on 12/29/2011 2:17:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jfranco77 on 12/29/2011 1:23:00 PM (view original):
I'm not sure why you have both on your team, but I'd probably play Nevin. It depends on your park, though, since that will affect Batista's HRs and how big the AVG gap is between them. I see it as pretty close to a wash.

A- and C+ players aren't going to get huge numbers of + or - plays. Maybe a swing of 5 between them. And maybe Nevin makes 20 more errors, so that's 25 negative plays. Since it's 3B, a few might be more than 1 base, but on average that will probably cost you 20-25 runs. There may also be some small hit to your ability to turn DPs but I can't measure it.

Nevin will get on base about 43 more times in 650 PAs, and slug for about 16 more bases. What's that worth? Probably 15-20 runs, a little less if the difference is mostly walks and a little more if it's a lot of hits.

If you can get Batista in for defense in the late innings, that lessens the impact of Nevin's glove. And he's not a terrible hitter if he has to come to the plate, though you do lose him as a PH for someone else.
I'm not sure how 20-25 bad plays at 3rd cost a team 20-25 runs, while getting on base 43 more times and slugging for more bases is only worth 15-20.
Offensively, a walk is worth on average about 1/3 of a run. The extra slugging is harder to figure. I usually use half a run. So that's about 13 + 8 or 21 runs.

I figured out that a + play at 3B was worth about .75-.8 runs on average, so I am assuming that a - play or error is worth the same in the other direction. It might be worse when you factor in the extra innings you have to use.
If you go through the RC formula and plug in league averages, here are the marginal values you get:

H 0.81
1B 0.70
2B 1.01
3B 1.31
HR 1.62
H on BIP 0.74
BB 0.47
IBB 0.39
HBP 0.47
GIDP -0.39
SH 0.16
SF 0.16
CS -0.39
SB 0.16

A plus play is worth at least a hit on a ball in play (0.74) plus the chance of a double play (~0.02) and 1/3 ip ($10K in salary or ~.2 runs) for a total of ~0.96 runs.
12/30/2011 11:47 PM (edited)
Who would you play at third? Topic

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