Looking over my Arb/FA in my first offseason as owner, I'm torn on this pitcher. http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=3285861

As a general rule, I'm always in favor of signing one's young players and getting as many guys in their  primes as possible.  I'm just not sold on sisk.  He projects to con 91 vel 91 p1 84 p2 85 sta 95.  Looks great, but the problem is his splits have stabilized at vL 58 / vR 38.  His OAV and WHIP have gone up each of the last three years.  Looking through the staffs of other quality teams (every one with a .500 or above record), I can't find a pitcher on their staffs with a vR less than 50, let alone a quality starter.

Can anyone make a case to keep this guy around?  He's due 3M in arb and wants upward of 5 per for a long term deal.

That vsR is indeed a killer. I personally wouldn't sign him to a large contract like that. He might be useful to you or someone else, but his value would be for less than $1m, imo.

v38 vR split is a deal killer in my book.  Look at his career stats.  1.50 WHIP, ERA around 5.00.  The only thing he's really useful for is as an innings-eater SP5 for a non-contending team.

Thanks for confirming my suspicions guys.

Yeah, as a general rule, I never have ML pitchers with splits below 50. That is my cutoff, and even then I look for 65+

Especially against righties.

Posted by tecwrg on 1/28/2012 11:55:00 AM (view original):
v38 vR split is a deal killer in my book.  Look at his career stats.  1.50 WHIP, ERA around 5.00.  The only thing he's really useful for is as an innings-eater SP5 for a non-contending team.

I second this.  Don't bother with low vR or vL splits, regardless of the other stats.  Young or not, that guy is going to be mediocre in the best conditions...

Posted by caesari on 1/28/2012 12:09:00 PM (view original):
Yeah, as a general rule, I never have ML pitchers with splits below 50. That is my cutoff, and even then I look for 65+

It was my rule until this season, where I see guys with splits in the 30s and 40's playing better than pitchers with splits in the 70s. 

Posted by bigal888 on 1/28/2012 1:12:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 1/28/2012 11:55:00 AM (view original):
v38 vR split is a deal killer in my book.  Look at his career stats.  1.50 WHIP, ERA around 5.00.  The only thing he's really useful for is as an innings-eater SP5 for a non-contending team.

I second this.  Don't bother with low vR or vL splits, regardless of the other stats.  Young or not, that guy is going to be mediocre in the best conditions...

Worse than poor in the best of conditions, he put up an ERA >5 in 2 seaons in the best pitching park in HBD, he should be avoided like the plague.

Posted by a_ersberg on 1/28/2012 3:22:00 PM (view original):

Posted by caesari on 1/28/2012 12:09:00 PM (view original):
Yeah, as a general rule, I never have ML pitchers with splits below 50. That is my cutoff, and even then I look for 65+

It was my rule until this season, where I see guys with splits in the 30s and 40's playing better than pitchers with splits in the 70s. 

There's more to that than just ratings, if it's just ratings that should be a .001% outlier.

It's a shame someone burned a top 12 pick on that guy.

pitchers with bad splits can succeed with good pitches, while good splits can be crushed by low pitch ratings.