How to calculate expected innings? Topic

wholck
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How do I caculate the number of innings a pitcher can expect to throw.  If Stamina is 70 and Durability is 30, what is the number?  Is the number the same if Durability is 70 and stamina is 30?  What if stamina is 20 and durability is 50.  Is there a forumula that people use, formal or informal?
2/1/2012 10:26 AM
noragar
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As rough guidelines, I figure the maximum number of innings a pitcher can pitch in a season to be:

DUR*STA/10 for starters   and
DUR*STA/16 for relievers

Some strange stuff starts to happen when either DUR or STA gets extremely high or extremely low, but for most pitchers it seems to work out pretty close.
2/1/2012 10:53 AM
Crump123
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Expect to throw and is capable of throwing are different, expect to throw would be based on rolw and who else you have pitching. Capable of theoretically throwing is more like:

(((162/(100/DUR)+1))*STA*1.3)/16=Regular Season IP Limit.
2/1/2012 11:25 AM
bigal888
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I don't have a formula, I've just kind of learned to look and make an educated guess.  Here is how I go about it:

>220 IP: DUR needs to be above 25 and STA needs to be around 80.  A 30+ DUR with a 80+ STA is a four man rotation guy that could get 300 innings if used right.
150 to 220 IP: DUR can be in the 15 to 25 range with a STA in the 70-80 range
90 to 150 IP: for SP, DUR is probably in the low 10-15 range and STA in the 50-60 range, for RP DUR in the 70 to 80 range with STA in the range of 30
<90 IP: When DUR and STA are about equal at 30 to 40. 

those are the rough outlines I use to set my pitching staff.
2/1/2012 11:41 AM
frankum
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This is why I love this game, you can attack it from so many different angles.

If I think you're a good pitcher and you have >60 stamina and >18 durability, you're going to be in my 5 man rotation. I put high value on lower stamina guys who max out around 180-200 innings than most.

My bullpen guys I typically want to be around 30 durability and 70 stamina.  Or if you're a monster I'll take any low durability/low stamina guy and make you a closer.
2/1/2012 12:16 PM
MikeT23
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The thing about projected innings is that there are waaaaay too many factors to get the "one size fits all" formula.   The pitcher's ability is the first thing.   An ineffective pitcher isn't going to be capable of as many IP as an effective pitcher.   He'll need more pitches to get the outs.   The defense behind the pitcher makes a big difference.  Park effects and league talent also factor in. 

When I project IP, it's based on my teams(which will certainly have my preferences) and not much else.   I know which types of pitchers I use in which roles and what kind of defense is behind them.

2/1/2012 12:34 PM
wholck
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That's a great point Mike, but I guess what I'm trying to determine is what a pitcher's limitations are based solely on stamina and durability.  All things being equal, what is the relative ability of a pitcher's ability to pitch a certain number of innings where the only two variables are stamina and dirability.  We've all had fantastic pitchers that couldn't pitch more because of the limitations of one of those two characteristics and I'm just trying to see if there is a consensus formula that is used to make those determinations.   Thanks for everyone's help.  Good stuff here.
2/1/2012 5:40 PM
gjello10
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Posted by wholck on 2/1/2012 5:40:00 PM (view original):
That's a great point Mike, but I guess what I'm trying to determine is what a pitcher's limitations are based solely on stamina and durability.  All things being equal, what is the relative ability of a pitcher's ability to pitch a certain number of innings where the only two variables are stamina and dirability.  We've all had fantastic pitchers that couldn't pitch more because of the limitations of one of those two characteristics and I'm just trying to see if there is a consensus formula that is used to make those determinations.   Thanks for everyone's help.  Good stuff here.
I think what Mike was saying was that Stamina and Durability relate to the number of pitches a guy can throw, not the number of innings he can throw.  Given the same Sta/Dur, the same park, and the same defense, the guy with control/vsL/vsR of 85/85/85 will pitch a lot more innings than the guy with 65/65/65, depite having identical pitch counts.  This is because the 85/85/85 guy will get a lot more outs (and give up fewer baserunners) with his allotment of pitches than the other guy.
2/1/2012 5:55 PM
MikeT23
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Let's just say I wholeheartedly disagree with the formula listed above.  It's close enough for government work but good pitchers will pitch considerably more innings than that formula suggests.   As an example, Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Arthur Relaford should be capable of 125.  He pitched 169.   And that's with me giving him the extra day at 100%.   I think I could get 200 from him if I tried.  But he's pretty damn good.   On the other hand, Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Max Guerrero should get 204 using that formula.  Not nearly as good and he gets 210 in a hitter's park.

 

2/1/2012 6:12 PM
MikeT23
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FWIW, I used those two as examples because he said "extreme" caused problems with the formula.  I think 31 is as extreme for a SP as 16.
2/1/2012 6:17 PM
Crump123
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Relaford is estimated as 142, Guerrero is estimated as 216, Relaford is an outlier since he isn't remotely close to a 16P/per IP pitcher, which is one of my assumptions, he's more a 13P/per IP level, judging from his recent game log,  that extra 20% accounts for your additional 20% of IP usage over the estimated, there's probably another 10% or more of accuracy in there somewhere, if you tweak the adjusting values rather than using ball park figures, but its good enough for the purpose i use it for in the draft.

Also it assumes DUR is linear, when it clearly isn't, that doesn't matter so much for higher DUR guys, but the low DUR guys, aren't as accurate, because 0 DUR guys recover, and the formula assumes that they're done for the season after one max game.

Oh you meant the other post.
2/2/2012 7:35 AM
MikeT23
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That's sort of my point.   Very good pitchers will get a lot more innings than "average" guys.   And, when you use terms like "outliers" and "linear", you're effectively saying "one size does not fit all".  Which is also my point. 

As I said, those formulas are good enough for government work but, if you're building your staff on them, you might be in for a fatigue surprise.
2/2/2012 8:41 AM
hbdgirl
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I try to project pitches per game instead of innings. I aim for 130 pitches or under per game. If a pitcher has 25 stamina, I'll put him at 15/30 with a pull rating 3 so he usually won't get too tired. 35 stamina , 30/30 etc.
2/2/2012 10:40 AM
Crump123
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Posted by MikeT23 on 2/2/2012 8:41:00 AM (view original):
That's sort of my point.   Very good pitchers will get a lot more innings than "average" guys.   And, when you use terms like "outliers" and "linear", you're effectively saying "one size does not fit all".  Which is also my point. 

As I said, those formulas are good enough for government work but, if you're building your staff on them, you might be in for a fatigue surprise.
Never even consider it for ML roster building. Draft only during the so the ranking system has something to base innings totals off.
2/3/2012 5:36 AM
MikeT23
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I do.  I short my staff innings almost every season.   It's pretty much designed to the best 1200 innings possible up until roster expansion.  A rash of extra innings games will kill me.
2/3/2012 7:53 AM
How to calculate expected innings? Topic
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