predicting prestige Topic

jtt8355
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often a coach posts and asks for an explanation of a prestige drop or why one team's prestige wasn't affected similar to another team's...the answers are based on a justification (or complaint) after seeing the engine's results. with everyone's assumptions and knowledge of prestige in mind, i'm wondering what everyone thinks will be the prestige (after turnover) of my w. virginia wesleyan team (posting last 5 seasons, so you can see what generated this season's prestige):

47 jtt8355 29-4 12-1 12-1 5-2 16-0 6 8 - Conf Champion
NT At-large Bid
NT (Elite 8)
46 jtt8355 29-2 11-0 14-1 4-1 16-0 4 2 A+ Conf Champion
CT Champion
NT (2nd Round)
45 jtt8355 18-12 7-4 8-7 3-1 14-2   46 A- Conf Champion
CT Champion
NT (1st Round)
44 jtt8355 23-8 9-1 11-5 3-2 13-3   13 A+ NT At-large Bid
NT (2nd Round)
43 jtt8355 33-2 11-0 14-1 8-1 15-1 2 4 A+ Conf Champion
CT Champion
NT (Championship Game)


full history available here: http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/History.aspx?tid=13362


personally, i think the prestige should drop to an A. season 45 is a black mark and taking season 43 out of the equation, nothing is so impressive to justify the A+ (admittedly, i don't know how much weight the 2 < 10 rpi seasons are worth nor the 29 wins...i can only hope they're worth a lot!). anyone think they understand d2 prestige enough to give this a shot?

4/2/2012 9:53 AM
tianyi7886
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A+ for sure.
4/2/2012 10:22 AM
alblack56
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I agree...A+
4/2/2012 12:26 PM
jtt8355
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FYI, you were both right (TG!). though i still don't know how prestige works, the formula and factors etc...
4/3/2012 9:00 AM
jaddison
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According to the HD staff prestige may be too difficult for me to understand.  My take on what they wrote me is that for Div 2 only the previous seasons factors in.

Here is my team of the last 4 years.  2 Final Fours, Elite 8 and 2 16s....and A prestige..  You can see I dropped to A after a 24-9 sweet 16 run.  I put in a ticket and the response was see the KB article which has the elements of prestige for all 3 Divisions.  The last customer service response on the ticket was- Prestige works like it is supposed to, we are not looking at revising prestige and it may be too complex for you to understand

66 jaddison 19-15 7-8 6-5 6-2 8-8 22 36 A NT At-large Bid
NT (Final Four)
65 jaddison 24-9 9-4 10-3 5-2 11-5   50 A NT At-large Bid
NT (Sweet 16)
64 jaddison 24-9 9-3 10-4 5-2 14-2 5 19 A+ Conf Champion
NT At-large Bid
NT (Final Four)
63 jaddison 27-6 12-0 10-4 5-2 16-0 7 4 A+ Conf Champion
NT At-large Bid
NT (Elite 8)
62 jaddison 27-4 13-2 11-0 3-2 16-0 8 7 A+ Conf Champion
NT At-large Bid
NT (Sweet 16)


4/3/2012 9:34 AM
reinsel
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15 losses and you want an A+?

Your 24-9 Sweet 16 run has a 50 RPI.
4/3/2012 9:38 AM
bow2dacowz
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postseason success should far outweigh rpi when it comes to a team making a deep tournament run and how the prestige is calculated.  when was the last time you heard someone say oh they made the Final Four but their RPI was only 36 so it wasn't THAT impressive.

IRL nobody knows or cares about RPI as it pertains to the prestige of the program.  I understand that this isn't real life, and I'm ok with that.  Using RPI to help calculate prestige is necessary, but when you have 5 straight years in the S16 or better, my personal feeling is that you should be an A+ all day long no matter what happened the rest of your season.  
4/3/2012 10:03 AM
acn24
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I don't think RPI is as important as record and ranking.  Given that DII and DIII prestige is based on a combination of current prestige and most recent season, I would think that you have a high A - you fell to a lower A after the Sweet 16/non-ranked season.  While you did make the Final Four this season the combination of fewer than 20 wins and 15 losses was likely enough to push you to a higher A, but not to an A+.

So while I think that the prestige is probably about right, what would really bother me about that CS response is that they said that prestige might be too complex for you to understand.  That was horrible for CS to say to a customer - if they had just referred you to the knowledge base article and said they weren't looking at prestige, that is frustrating but fine.

Also - the difference between an A+ and A at DII is barely significant, this shouldn't affect your recruiting at all.
4/3/2012 10:40 AM
killbatman
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"It may be too complex for you to understand"

Wow what a douche-y response from CS.

I'm not sure how prestige should handle a 19-15 Final 4 team.  Have we ever seen something like that in real life?  I see VCU was 28-12 last year, maybe that's the closest thing.
4/3/2012 10:51 AM
jaddison
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2 final four runs in 3 years would probably sway a kid more than saying "my school consistently has a great RPI " if that team never got beyond the second round but that's just me i guess.

The CS response was enough for me to considerably reduce the number of teams I have in HD
4/3/2012 11:39 AM
jsajsa
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RPI matters, but not because of RPI itself. RPI is used here (if I can give CS and the game the benefit of the doubt) as a way of showing where you were over the season. It's why even with no prior knowledge of anything, VCU's final four season last year is not as impressive to recruits as Ohio State's final four this year, because any recruit would be able to look at both schools, even though they had the same playoff finish, and say clearly Ohio St. had the better season and is more poised for continued success, because they were the ones among the top 10 teams all season instead of only having a furious run at the end. This is clear. RPI may not be the best way to reflect that, but it's not bad. Of course no recruit cares about any school's final RPI ranking, but they do care about ability to compete year in and year out. In a vacuum ignoring real life histories, VCU sneaking into the tournament and then getting to the final four doesn't prove staying power but Ohio St having the same ending result this season does because they were "up there" the whole way. If anyone has a better way than RPI to reflect that in prestige rankings, I'd say you should let CS know... but it seems clear they don't care anyway.

4/3/2012 12:04 PM
professor17
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Posted by jaddison on 4/3/2012 11:39:00 AM (view original):
2 final four runs in 3 years would probably sway a kid more than saying "my school consistently has a great RPI " if that team never got beyond the second round but that's just me i guess.

The CS response was enough for me to considerably reduce the number of teams I have in HD
Unless you're Butler trying to recruit against Indiana the last couple of seasons.
4/3/2012 12:38 PM
fillthelane
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jsajsa I completely agree with except in this case your VCU comparison is a little off because in this particular case Jaddison has Final 4, Sweet 16, Final 4, Elite 8, Sweet 16.  I think if VCU had that track record you wouldn't say they weren't poised for continued success would you?

What that record of NT performance would tell me as a recruit is that no matter what happens is season, be it injury, falling prey to several -5 slowdown upsets lol, that in the end the school will perform in the NT.  But if I read the KB article on Div 2 presitige correctly nothing but the previous season counts which seems crazy if this is meant to be a simulation of real college basketball
4/3/2012 5:43 PM
reinsel
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Posted by bow2dacowz on 4/3/2012 10:03:00 AM (view original):
postseason success should far outweigh rpi when it comes to a team making a deep tournament run and how the prestige is calculated.  when was the last time you heard someone say oh they made the Final Four but their RPI was only 36 so it wasn't THAT impressive.

IRL nobody knows or cares about RPI as it pertains to the prestige of the program.  I understand that this isn't real life, and I'm ok with that.  Using RPI to help calculate prestige is necessary, but when you have 5 straight years in the S16 or better, my personal feeling is that you should be an A+ all day long no matter what happened the rest of your season.  
Umm VCU last year?  Or George Mason?  Neither of them exactly became dominant national programs, like if they were 29-1 and made the final four, THAT would have been more impressive. 
4/3/2012 7:54 PM
bow2dacowz
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Umm if Kentucky went 40-0 this year that would have been more impressive too.  Stupid argument.

Would recruits have looked at GMU better if they had a season where they were 30-0 in regular season and lost in the first round of the NT rather than going whatever they did and making the F4?  Doubt it.  If you have a team that goes to the S16 or better 5 years in a row....especially in D2 or D3 where you don't have the program or conference prestige disparities like in D1...they are a national power, end of story.  Who cares what a team does in the regular season?  Who cares what a teams RPI is?  Nobody cares about a regular season title or talks about how many conference titles Coach K has.  It's about NT performance.
4/3/2012 9:00 PM
predicting prestige Topic
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