I've had a variation of the following happen to me in each of the last two times I've done recruiting, and now that it's not currently going on and I don't have to post live recruiting issues, I thought I'd see what others thought.

What happens when the scholarship message isn't in line with FSS? Meaning, I had a guy give me the I'm winning message: "Coach, you've said everything I needed to hear. I think X is the place for me. Can't wait to sign!" but FSS tells me "struggling between"... and both messages in this case came in the exact same cycle. The previous time this happened was when I had the same I'm winning scholarship message, but later FSS changed from clearly favoring me to struggling between, without the recruit ever giving me a new scholarship message to say that the state of the battle has changed. In these cases, who do you believe? I tend to think the scholarship message is more important, but I was wondering if anyone knew for sure. I can't say in either case that I waited it out to test my theory, the latter case because I don't think it's wise to take chances when a possible 800 player wants to come to DIII, the former because it was my last unused ship' for a guy I highly regarded and I had plenty of money left so I threw a couple more HVs at him to seal the deal.

Anyone know if my inclination is correct? Is the scholarship message always a better indication than word on the street?

scholarship message is the only one that matters.   FSS only changes twice a day, so can always lag behind a change in status.  if scholly says you are winning, you are winning

Be careful here - the second scenario you described you might actually get more info from FSS.  Once you get the scholarship message that you're leading you won't get another one unless you lose the lead.  While there are a ton of scholarship messages for various stages of losing the battle, there's only one for winning.  With FSS, in that second scenario it sounds as if someone had been catching up to you but hadn't quite caught up yet.  If I saw that I wouldn't necessarily spend any more money on that recruit up front, but I'd probably be more inclined to save some cash in reserve in case I needed it to fight off the challenger.

Posted by dahsdebater on 4/9/2012 3:52:00 PM (view original):
Be careful here - the second scenario you described you might actually get more info from FSS.  Once you get the scholarship message that you're leading you won't get another one unless you lose the lead.  While there are a ton of scholarship messages for various stages of losing the battle, there's only one for winning.  With FSS, in that second scenario it sounds as if someone had been catching up to you but hadn't quite caught up yet.  If I saw that I wouldn't necessarily spend any more money on that recruit up front, but I'd probably be more inclined to save some cash in reserve in case I needed it to fight off the challenger.

I don't believe there is only 1 message for winning a battle, just one that's a clear indication of winning. I would have thought if it was enough for FSS to change status, it should be enough for the scholarship message too. It may just be in that case that the cutoff for what FSS considers close and what the scholarship message considers close are different.

jsa, that last sentence was exactly my thought.  I'm sure the formulas don't perfectly match up.

I do think dahs makes a good point, though.  The 2 seemingly disagreeing probably gives you some information about how close you are to dropping from "way ahead" to just "somewhat ahead" or worse.

Whe you talk about a change in the scholarship message, do you mean a change in the tone of the responses to general calls or letter?  Or is there actually a new email with "scholarship" in the subject line, like there is when you first offer it?

Posted by aghander on 4/13/2012 4:03:00 PM (view original):
Whe you talk about a change in the scholarship message, do you mean a change in the tone of the responses to general calls or letter?  Or is there actually a new email with "scholarship" in the subject line, like there is when you first offer it?

the latter. BUT not all scholarship messages have scholarship in the subject.

heres the deal - FSS only has a few values. one when you are considered alone, next best is when you are considered with someone else, but they are a strong lean, then one for struggling between two, then one where player is a strong lean to someone else.

scholarship messages have many values. but the BEST one, except for when you are considered alone, takes a SMALLER difference than the FSS strong lean. i get this scenario you are talking about all the time. it doesn't mean anything, except that you have a big enough lead to have the recruit say "if i could sign tomorrow, i would!", but not enough for FSS to say, definitely leaning towards you.

i don't think what dahs is suggesting is correct at all (no offense!!)

of course - fss can lag behind, if it is from previous cycles, in which case scholarship messages are what matter (as always). but i am assuming that you are talking about a fresh FSS message, following a scholarship message (immediately or otherwise) that you are a strong lead. that case is what i was responding to.