The WIS decision tree decides whether a PA results in an out before it decides whether the out is strikeout.  This affects pitching value pretty clearly since  - all other stats being equal - pitchers with high K/9 cost more per inning than with low K/9.  

Some other consequences of deciding an out before deciding whether the out is a K:

*  hitters with high K totals - again all other stats being equal - should avoid grounding into as many double plays
*  pitchers with low K/9 should be more adept at inducing DPs
*  hitters with high K totals should force less errors
*  pitchers with low K/9 should have more errors by the defense behind them

In real MLB, the value of a strike out is huge.  The decision of out before determining whether that out is strike out seems to me to be a flaw in the logic of this game we all play.  I've been trying to verify my hypothesis and I believe the evidence from several recent leagues bear it out. 

Any comments?

Mathamatically, there is no difference in figuring K-outs prior or after figuring an out.  The difference is that in real-life a pitcher's BABIP falls into a relatively narrow range and trends towards the mean.  That means that in real-life  the advantage of a strike out is huge because the alternative (outside of a walk) is a ball in play that may be a hit.    In the sim, however, there is huge variation on a pitcher's BABIP.  This is due to the changes in play between different eras as well as variation or luck across 127 years of baseball.

Essentially what you are identifying is that in real-life we care about predictive stats.  These are the baseball stats that are indicative of a players true skill level and what he might do in the future.  WIS sim league baseball is based on descriptive stats, or the stats that describe what a player did, without adjusting for luck or most circustance.

Isn't the DP determination based on the fielders and the runner's/hitter's speed and does not count on the hitting logic? The pitchers with low K rates will induce more chances in general but whether those chances lead to DP is based on a lot more than the K rate. Hitters with more Ks would lead to less chances and less raw errors but still the same rate of errors.

Excuse me for thinking out loud here, but I might be representative of many who try hard to wrap our mind's around the way this system works. The batters all have hit rates as well as contact rates. Now if first the system were to determine if the ball were struck or not, it would then matter a great deal both that the pitcher, as a high K pitcher, made it less likely that contact was made. Then, based on the batter's hit rate,  how likely if it were struck by the bat to become a hit would likewise be crucial. 

If legaldh is right here, then this is all circumvented a priori by the determination of an out before deciding whether the batter swung or then whether he hit the ball at all. 

zubinsum, I agree with the last part of your post, but in the first part, if I have understood it correctly here, it would matter whether a K out is decided before or after the fact since it either does, or does involve the contact and hit rate of the batter in this calculation - in relation of course to other variables like the defense or stadium, wouldn't it ?

I doubt that correct hit rates are available for players from the 90's to prior times so to use a figure that is either incorrect or a estimation for most of the database would exacerbate the already numerous issues with the engine.

Fair enough. So in other words, this is merely informative for us, but (hit rates that is) is not used as part of the system for determining event outcomes. If that is true then zubinsum's point is stronger, it matters little in the end whether K's are dealt with before or after the event is decided to be an out. So the only advantage of strikeout pitchers is for the less strain it puts on defense, plus the additional help to defense if the strikeout-oriented pitcher is modern, post-deadball era. 

Otherwise, all that is happening is that we are paying for a higher pitch count. This would go a way toward explaining the preference-advantage for deadball era pitchers. 

Posted by jjgreen14 on 4/13/2012 10:43:00 AM (view original):
Isn't the DP determination based on the fielders and the runner's/hitter's speed and does not count on the hitting logic? The pitchers with low K rates will induce more chances in general but whether those chances lead to DP is based on a lot more than the K rate. Hitters with more Ks would lead to less chances and less raw errors but still the same rate of errors.

Yes.  I think this is correct.  To re-phrase from a pitcher's perspective the advatage of less K's are more double plays.  The advatange of more K's are less errors.  My studies indicate (indirectly) on average this evens out, although it can be manipulated in the extreme conditions.   

Posted by italyprof on 4/13/2012 4:56:00 PM (view original):
Fair enough. So in other words, this is merely informative for us, but (hit rates that is) is not used as part of the system for determining event outcomes. If that is true then zubinsum's point is stronger, it matters little in the end whether K's are dealt with before or after the event is decided to be an out. So the only advantage of strikeout pitchers is for the less strain it puts on defense, plus the additional help to defense if the strikeout-oriented pitcher is modern, post-deadball era. 

Otherwise, all that is happening is that we are paying for a higher pitch count. This would go a way toward explaining the preference-advantage for deadball era pitchers. 

As you postulated high K pitchers in the sim induce fewer errors at the expense of inducing fewer double plays. 

I did a reasonably extensive study on this and estimated that in an average OL a high-K pitcher is *slightly* better off than a low-K pitcher.  I used event values from the closest RL season I could find.  That said, the marginal value of a K is very, very low and team-dependent and certainly in some cases is negative.  It would be very hard to make Ks worth as much as they cost.  I used to like high-K modern pitchers before deadballers got so cheap, but now it's hard to argue that you can't get better value out of deadball guys.

High K's are good to protect against terrible defense. Not much other reason to worry about it.

Posted by dahsdebater on 4/16/2012 5:19:00 AM (view original):
I did a reasonably extensive study on this and estimated that in an average OL a high-K pitcher is *slightly* better off than a low-K pitcher.  I used event values from the closest RL season I could find.  That said, the marginal value of a K is very, very low and team-dependent and certainly in some cases is negative.  It would be very hard to make Ks worth as much as they cost.  I used to like high-K modern pitchers before deadballers got so cheap, but now it's hard to argue that you can't get better value out of deadball guys.

http://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=451963&page=1&TopicsTimeframe=30&TopicsPage=4

Deadballers are quite the bargain now.