Posted by dahsdebater on 7/11/2012 8:59:00 PM (view original):
You're better off going the other way - allocate about 175-185 minutes so that simmy is able to play whoever's rested and highest on the depth chart late in the 2nd half rather than trying to force guys to their minute allocations and causing severe fatigue problems down the stretch.

PG - DK (9-13), JV (9-13), RV (14-18), SH (9-13)
SG - SH (9-13), RV (14-18), KH (9-13), VG (9-13)
SF - VG (9-13), KH (9-13), JB (9-13), RV (14-18)
PF - MO (19-23), WC (4-8), JB (9-13), DK (9-13)
C - LB (14-18), CT (4-8), WC (4-8), MO (19-23)

So, one test should be SG, where Henson is starting, but Valley is pegged for more of the PT (9-13 v. 14-18). It's not a perfect test, because both guys are listed elsewhere on the depth chart, but if it works how I think it may, Valley will end up with more PT (eating a higher % of the unaccounted-for minutes). 
 
A second will be PF Oliver, who is pegged for the highest target minutes at 19-23, but who will almost certainly be fatigued even at that level. If fatigue is the primary factor, I wouldn't expect him to be above 23 minutes. If relative minute distribution is, I would expect him to be (although I recognize if he goes for 30 minutes, the fact he is a starter may also play a (large?) role). 

Posted by dahsdebater on 7/12/2012 12:34:00 AM (view original):
I haven't played target minutes all that often, certainly not as often as you have, so I don't know whether that's true or not.  What I definitely do know is that if you have a guy playing at "tired" at a substitution point with 3 minutes to go and he's played 20 minutes he'll be subbed out almost without fail if his target minutes were set to 16-18, most of the time if he's set to 19-23, and almost never if he's set to 24-28.  The lower the total number of target minutes you have allocated the more likely your players are to be in the earlier scenarios.  If you allocate too many minutes you'll see a lot more guys still running back out at very tired.