I understand from dev chat and FAQ that player distro will be roughly related to the number of possession-terminating plays by a given player.  This incudes turnovers.  What I am wondering is whether all turnovers are a result of players "selected" by the engine according to their distro, who are then "selected" for a turnover from among the possible possession-ending outcomes.  

Of course there are turnovers in transition and off of offensive rebounds, so ignore those for now.  I am wondering if all this means that turnovers will be roughly proportional to distro, all things being equal, or if there are turnovers that occur independently of distro, just because a player is on the floor, and just because in the course of normal passing he ends up with the ball and turns it over, even if he would not have been the player selected for the possession-terminating outcome according to the distro settings and matchups.  

Basically, assuming we agree that a player's FGA in a half-court set not on offensive rebounds is determined entirely by distro, lineups, and matchups, is it all the case that a player's turnovers in a half-court set not on offensive rebounds is determined entirely be distro, lineups, and matchups?  

Good question...I don't see how any turnover that takes place during the act of passing (or behind the 10 second line) can be considered part of that player's distrobution. BUT that is just a guess on my part because this game can be very insulting to human common sense. However, IMHO, I think it's safe to safe to say that line-ups for zone and match-ups for man and press help determine the likelyhood of whether a player turns the ball over, if not then what would be the point of ratings.

Well I was thinking that turnovers per team possession would be something like (Distro+X)*F(Ratings)*G(Opponent Ratings), where F is some function of a player's ratings and G is some function of his defenders' ratings.  Then the only question is whether X is 0 -- will turnovers increase/decrease proportionally to Distro.  I think I already know that the answer is not 0, since even a player set to Distro=0 with other non-0 Distro players in the lineup will still turn the ball over, at least on fastbreaks and off of offensive rebounds.  But do we know that he does so even in half-court sets?  If so, how much?  

I found that IQ plays a HUGE part in tournovers. As for distro, I agree that it isnt right to have errant passes be a part of the distro ratio.

I think the messages are just window dressing.  The engine computes the turnover and then produces a random turnover message.  I don't think you should get caught up on where the turnover occurs.  I know it's frustrating, but I think it is just like trying to figure out the point spreads.  Sometimes the engine just produces number based on, well, seemingly nothing