By my estimates:

	$/ip	rank	total $	rank	% value
08 Joss	$5,173	3878	$1,769,213	1	12%
18 Covelski	$3,246	5745	$1,288,657	20	10%

Yeah, he is one of the best in the sim.  He is no Joss, but no one else is either.

Where does 1915 Dave Davenport fit in your estimate? My funky black box thinks he is a good pitcher...

Posted by mixtroy on 2/26/2012 11:05:00 AM (view original):

Posted by CarlosVal on 2/20/2012 2:22:00 PM (view original):
These small samples add up to big samples. We've all had these experiences. My latest bomb is Babe Adams 1920 and 1921. He has terrific stats both seasons but when I used him in a progressive, he was awful. Both seasons. I'm convinced that there are MANY players with data entry errors so that we see a .228 OAV but in the database he has a .328 or .288 or something. Which may explain why guys like Addie Joss 1908 are so outstanding. He's good but not THAT good. The data entry error in Joss' case must work in his favor. In the end, you have to try them several times to reach your own conclusions. Performance History helps, too.

I believe this also applies to 1915 Dave Davenport.  The guy has great normalized numbers ( 196 ERC+, 1.95 ERC#), but not only has he been a dud for me, I've also seen him in OLs where he was slapped around like a redhaired stepchild. 

Just finished a season with Davenport and he was very mediocre for me as well.

Posted by fooolishfool on 9/14/2012 12:33:00 AM (view original):
Where does 1915 Dave Davenport fit in your estimate? My funky black box thinks he is a good pitcher...

My model has him as a pretty good pitcher too; he is a good, but not a great value.

His actual $/ip is 33.3K; I have him worth $34.1K/ip.

However, for whatever reason, batters hit him better than my model predicts: I have his expected oav as .253... it is actually .270.  And given that he is probably not a value at all.