One of the most common types of thread on this forum is the "How much more do I have to spend than the other team to win the recruiting  battle?" The scenerios vary from prestige differences to distance advantages to cross level competition but invariably someone will eventually respond by throwing out some percentage. It may be twice as much, 1.5 times as much, 1.2 times as much, etc. How do you know how much the other coach spent so you can determine what twice as much, 1.5 times as much, or 1.2 times as much actually is?

Do coaches (A) technically estimate (or wildly guess) that their opponent probably will spend around $7500 (pick any number) and then compute that $7500 times 1.5 equals $11,250? Or do they (B) actually try to calculate the cost difference between HV's and CV's, speculate how many of each their opponent will use, throw in a dollar amount equal to the percentage for prestige difference, evaluate whether their opponent will offer a start/minutes and assign a dollar value to them, all while considering the amount of open spots the opponent has and whether he will attempt to fill them all or not? Do coaches also factor in the recruiting ability of the opposing coach and do they know if his tendancies are to win at all costs or back off if the going gets tough? In addition, do coaches factor in the player's consideration for the level of team prestige he should be playing at and his views on how many players are ahead of him at his position? And finally, do coaches determine the actual amount of postseason cash and projected amount of carryover cash the opponent has and compare that to how much cash they have to spend?
 
My question is: Does knowing that you likely will have to spend twice as much, 1.5 times as much, or 1.2 times as much influence your decision to go after a particular recruit? If yes and the decision was to go for it, how did you decide how much to spend?

I'll echo reinsel - I try to do all of those things. I have a spreadsheet that lists the costs of CVs and HVs at all distances, so depending on distance I try to determine the total effort the other guy could put in based on how I would do it (if he's more efficient that I am that would skew things) and if I can't top that effort after adjusting for prestige I generally won't battle. Sometimes other things will factor in (if I've battled the guy before and remember anything from it for instance...) and I may decide to battle if I decide that the guy might back off before going all in (maybe to protect other battles) in which case I might not need the total security (or perceived security) of knowing I could win an all  costs battle... but basically yes to everything you said...

If I do go for it, I try to put in just enough to take the lead at first...how much that is depends on the other coach, his other battles/lack of battles, FSS WOTS, my overall plan (do I need to be wary of other battles...etc)

tl,dr: too many variables for a simple answer...

Ditto on everything that reinsel said.

i think we're all in agreement that the 2nd paragraph is the blueprint, but your first paragraph raised a question for me...

at what point is the battle "decided"? obviously it's based partially on the number of cycles left and the gap in effort between each team...but do we have any idea what that equation looks like? i've been in situations where i want to win the recruit or bump off another considering team ASAP; determining how much effort i need to give has been VERY difficult. i have next to no handle on that outside of a slight gut feel.

Since nobody actually knows the value of prestige, I tend to do a range of the costs and then decide. I know people used to feel a 1/3 letter grade at D1 was worth 33% but I think most people know that's nowhere near the case anymore, so I will do costs for 10%, 15%, and 20% and see if the player is worth the cost. Another factor at the high levels of D1 is how likely the player is to leave early. I don't want to spend 70k on a player that I think will most likely leave after 2 seasons. 

I only recruit at d3, but i find that recruiting battles are generally difficult to forecast. I love the distance-to-HV and CV spreadsheet idea.

Thanks for the responses so far everyone. Please keep them comming.

Jet, that is a problem for me too. It's a variation of the "Know when to hold 'em. Know when to fold 'em" scenerio. Do you do enough just to get ahead of your opponent for that cycle and then hope to match him cycle for cycle from then on or do you max out your effort and try to knock your opponent completely out of the ballpark? I was recently in a DII situation where I knocked off a coach I wasn't familiar with. He kept comming back and I had to knock him off 4 times before I finally won the player. I really hate battling a coach that doesn't know he is beaten. I have also spent $79,000 on a player and lost.

Posted by Weena on 9/23/2012 2:21:00 PM (view original):
Thanks for the responses so far everyone. Please keep them comming.

Jet, that is a problem for me too. It's a variation of the "Know when to hold 'em. Know when to fold 'em" scenerio. Do you do enough just to get ahead of your opponent for that cycle and then hope to match him cycle for cycle from then on or do you max out your effort and try to knock your opponent completely out of the ballpark? I was recently in a DII situation where I knocked off a coach I wasn't familiar with. He kept comming back and I had to knock him off 4 times before I finally won the player. I really hate battling a coach that doesn't know he is beaten. I have also spent $79,000 on a player and lost.

yup absolutely. if you blow em out of the park, you could be wasting cash you need later, but you could also be saving yourself cash by discouraging your opponent.