I've seen several posts on 2 issues with HD. One topic is the ridiculously low scores in HD games vs real life. The other topic is how the slow down creates unrealistic results.

Has anyone looked at the average number of possessions in a HD game (normal tempo and slow down) vs real life? My gut tells me that HD has far fewer posessions and this is the real cause of some of these issues. This would be especially true with the use of slow down. If the # of possessions are reduced too much, then the impact of variability is magnified.

WIS may be concentrating on matching the NCAA on stats like shooting %, FT%, etc., but not looking at average score.

I agree. Generally I see slowdown teams in HD don't shoot until there is 5 seconds or less on the shot clock virtually every time. That happens occasionally in real life, but it's definitely not the norm, even for a really methodical team like Washington State.

Is your question whether a slowdown HD game is comparable in terms of # of possessions to a slowdown real life game? What do you define as "slow down" in real life?

I have number of possessions for several teams in various worlds (D-III) recorded. The possessions were estimated using Dean Oliver's formula but slightly modified for what I found accurate for HD. I could compare this to the # of possessions that Pomeroy posts on his website; the Pomeroy formula estimates # of possessions using a slightly different coefficient, though. Which right there tells you there's a difference. The difference in estimation should be quite slight, though.

It was over a year ago (been a couple changes since then, but nothing i see that would affect possessions).

I don't remember ever comparing to average NCAA but I can look at that. I'm in the process of moving files to a new computer from a dying one.

Possessions are a function of tempo. The more uptempo teams in a world, the more possessions you'll see...but you know that.

I guess 3 Part Question.

What is average # of possessions in DI NCAA game?

What is average # of possessions in HD game (normal tempo)?

What is average # of possessions in HD game (slow vs slow tempo)?

Answer to Part 1:
link
'08-09 Division I Tempo="66.5" possessions per game.
Standard deviation was 3.30 posessions.

So, you can reasonably expect to often see anywhere from 60 to 73 possessions per game in real life.

Highest was VMI with 80.9 poss/game
Lowest was Denver with 57.4/game

(These are using Pomeroy's adjusted tempo...he has explanation on his site for how he adjusts. The raw is available on the site as well, but there's not much difference).

I looked at my data. I didn't need the records of teams I was recording, so I only have raw # of possessions, not possessions per game. Sorry about that.

If you're upset about your last game, I estimate the game had 53 possessions. That's quite a bit low. If you consistently see 50ish possession games, I can see your gripe. You are correct that this will create more random outcomes--ie: upsets.

BUT teams might have the option to play slower in HD than they choose to do in real life.

My game last night (which made me think about this because it seemed to go by in a flash) we had about 52 possessions. We played uptempo while opponent played slow tempo.

lol we posted the same time ...but Im glad we came up with about the same number!! :)

Thanks for your initial analysis

In my correspondence with CS in the past I've found they strive to keep their various #s in line with D-1 stats. You might bring this one to their attention.

I can't believe I never thought to look at this before. But changing this in the engine might bring up other cans of worms. Some guys running slowdown (obviously) want 50ish possession games and envision their players holding the ball for 35 seconds. It just doesn't work that way much in real life.

Interestingly, Denver (the lowest average pace school in D1) had their slowest paced game come in at 51, their highest at 67. But they're the exception.
Denver link

Obviously we need to see more data, but a peek at those initial #'s confirms my suspicion that HD's version of the slowdown produces too few possessions.

In real life, even a low tempo team will take open shots if they get them, unless its late in the game and they're explicitly trying to use up clock. It seems like in HD, they just pass the ball around for 25 seconds, and then run a play.

There really needs to be more settings controlling tempo and playstyle, or at least a wider range of settings. 5 tempo settings, rather than just 3, for example.

I'm responsible for a whole thread of complaining! This is awesome! Thanks mully ;)

ok, so this doesn't have anything to do with the # of possessions, but there are no "team rebounds" in hd.

Quote: Originally Posted By armst24 on 7/05/2009I'm responsible for a whole thread of complaining! This is awesome! Thanks mully ;

No not really.....

Its more from the Smith Big East games last season that routinely looked like 46-40 affairs. Last night just reminded me of those.

Quote: Originally posted by mullycj on 7/05/2009I guess 3 Part Question.What is average # of possessions in DI NCAA game?What is average # of possessions in HD game (normal tempo)?What is average # of possessions in HD game (slow vs slow tempo)?

In Rupp, I run slowdown/Triangle nearly every game (except vs. the worst SIMs). And it looks like a slowdown vs. slowdown game will lead to ~50 possessions based on my 3 games this season where it occurred. Even when my opponent went uptempo, we still only had ~57 possessions/game, which is just a tad higher than what the season average was for my games. Excluding OT games, the highest # of possessions in a game was 64, and ironically it occurred when my opponent went slowdown and I ran normal.

I do generally agree that HD skews things in favor of the slowdown team a bit moreso than in RL.